I think saying he’s 50% convinced doesn't make him confused, it makes him unusually honest. It’s unrealistic to have stupidly high levels of confidence in beliefs that are widely contested. I’m not 100% convinced about anything because there’s always room for being wrong. That doesn’t mean I don’t believe in things enough to act as if they are true. It’s reasonable to act as if the garden path is solid as it always has been, even though something could have hollowed it out from underneath when I wasn’t looking. 👀
I often think it’s useful to attach percentages to things to beliefs, not because it’s even possible to be exact about these things, but because it makes you reflect on the relative confidence you have in various beliefs. I would say I’m about 70% confident there is a God and 40% confident the Bible is inspired by God. For comparison I’m about 80% confident that humans are causing climate change and about 60% sure that the CIA was involved in the assassination of JFK. I’d say there is about 2% chance the moon landings were faked and less than 0.1% chance the earth is flat. I’m more than 90% sure there is a genocide going on in the Middle East right now and worried there might be a 5% chance the Ukrainian war will turn into a nuclear conflict. I think there’s maybe 30% chance Scotland will be independent by 2050 and this has gone down at least 10% in the past week. I think realistically there’s a 20% chance Sturgeon will go to jail, but wish it was higher. I think there’s a 30% chance AI will kill us all and a 20% chance there will be radical life extension in the next few decades. I think it is more than 50% likely that the original NT contained the divine name as JWs claim but less than 5% chance they are correct about 607 BC being the date of the fall of Jerusalem.