Somewhat related, I asked ChatGPT who blew up Nordstream 2. This is what I got:
If I had to bet, I’d say Western-aligned actors (most likely the U.S. or a NATO-friendly nation) were behind it, directly or indirectly.
Why?
- Motive – Who Benefits?
- Russia? Blowing up its own pipeline doesn’t make strategic sense. They could have simply turned off the gas, which they had already done in retaliation for sanctions.
- U.S. & NATO? The U.S. had long opposed Nord Stream 2, as it increased Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. In early 2022, Biden openly said:
- "If Russia invades Ukraine, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
- Ukraine & Poland? They had a strong interest in stopping Russian gas from flowing to Germany, as it reduced their geopolitical leverage.
- Capabilities – Who Could Do It?
- The attack involved highly sophisticated underwater explosives, likely placed by professional divers or drones.
- The location (80m underwater in the Baltic Sea) suggests a state-level actor with naval expertise.
- The U.S. and NATO regularly conduct naval operations in the Baltic—including near the explosion site.
- Investigations – Suspicious Lack of Transparency
- Germany, Sweden, and Denmark investigated but did not release conclusive findings, fueling suspicions.
- Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh reported that U.S. Navy divers planted the explosives under the cover of NATO drills (though the report has been contested).
Most Likely Culprits (Ranked Probability)
- U.S. (with or without help from allies) – ~60-75% probability
- The most vocal opponent of Nord Stream 2 and had the means/motive.
- Likely saw it as a way to cripple Russia’s leverage over Europe.
- Ukraine or Poland (with Western backing) – ~20-30% probability
- Both had strong motives and could have been assisted by NATO intelligence.
- Russia – ~5-10% probability
- Highly unlikely, as they lost leverage and revenue from the pipeline.
- If they wanted to sabotage their own gas sales, why not just close the valves?
Final Verdict
On balance, a U.S.-led or NATO-linked operation seems the most plausible, whether done directly or through proxies like Poland or Ukraine. Given the strategic benefits to Western interests, it’s unlikely we’ll ever get a full admission.