Number of congregations declined in Germany and United States last year. That is real decline. And they have been declining in Japan and elsewhere for a while. I have argued for years that congregation numbers are the best measure of size and growth, long before the numbers started dropping. Watch that space. With all the consolidation going on now, next year’s figures should be fascinating. If WT release the figures next year, that is.
Census returns in Canada and Australia also show declines in those self-identifying as JWs. My own observation is that attendances at conventions locally are down at least 10% from the peak.
Plus there is very good census data (shared by shepherdless) to show that the average age of JWs is climbing rapidly. I see the same in congregations and at conventions, and other posters have observed the same. Increasing age is a very reliable indicator of future decline in religious activity across many different groups such as Anglicans, Methodists and Church of Scotland in the UK.
I don’t want JWs to fail. I want them to reform. And collapse might prompt that to happen. But actually I argued for years on this forum that JWs enjoyed good growth, because compared with most other religious groups that was true! But when the trends started to change I changed my view.