Yes, on the one hand the history of life is a sequence of extinctions and nature is against survival. But on another deeper level, why does reality exist in such a way that life and consciousness are even possible at all. Why should it? It’s bit like pointing out bad weather makes survival more difficult but ignoring the question why there’s a planet on which weather is even possible in the first place. It seems to me that the existence of reality does reasonably call for an explanation, and invoking a being that is outside of existence as we understand it approximates what might look like some explanation. This is why I think God is likely but I don’t know for sure.
I’m more sure about other mundane things that others have different opinions on. For example I’m 90% sure the covid virus came from a lab in Wuhan and I have been sure of that from the start. I’m 90% sure Russia didn’t blow up its own gas pipeline but it was probably the US with or without help from others. I’m 90% sure that senior officials have been knowingly covering for Biden’s dementia for years. These things seem obvious to me to the point that many people have failed a basic kind of societal level intelligence test in not seeing the obvious.