According to NASA, "Frank Drake's own current estimate puts the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy at 10,000."
I agree. However, you have to take into account the time factor. Will there be simultaneous communicating civilizations. As much as we like to think of aliens and flying saucers we will actually hear them long before we see them if at all. We have not heard them yet or they lived and died out and their electromagnetic radiation has long passed us.