Her baptism is only a few weeks away. I have accepted that I probably won't be able to talk her out of it. I am at peace with that. She may need to pay the price of her blind obedience to a human organization. I may need to pay the price for letting it get this far.
I am not using the full frontal. In fact I have only described myself as "recently troubled" by her decision. I have told her that I am still open to the religion, but there are serious questions that I have, which is also basically true. I myself do not see how it is possible, but if I was shown some compelling reason, I would be open.
What I have done is approach her not on the reason involved. That as you pointed out is incidental to her decisions. We believe things because we want to believe them. I have asked her to list all the reasons why she wants to believe TFDS doctrine. Next I have asked her to try to understand all the ways she has been influenced by others to believe what she believes. I found an outstanding book called the Psychology of Influence. It is a book that desrcibes the 6 basic methods that all compliance professionals use. I can and will write a huge post on this subject, but the JW in particular rely heavily on social proof (others say it is true so it is true), and our need for consistency with our commitments (public statements, reading propaganda out loud). She is in the middle of doing these two items grudgingly. Lastly I have asked her to pray for truth. If it is true, ask God to make it obvious. If it is not, ask God to make it obviuos. The key is to be a lover of the truth however.
Once she has done these things, I am going to ask her to look at some historical items. You don't have to show apostate material. The JW's give their critics plenty of ammo with their own body of work.
Then my last bullet is to simply beg her not to do it. We have a very good marriage otherwise. I do have a lot of influence over her, and she respects my opinion.
Again though, I do not have a lot of hope of talking her out of it. She has been studying and being indoctrinated for 3 years. I have only really been confronting this for about 1 month now.
Thanks for your thoughts though, and keep me in your prayers as well. Ask God to make my wife a lover of truth. I wish you luck, er um I mean, may the laws of probability favor you as well.