sir82

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Posts by sir82

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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

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  sir82

  This week's bad news for team Trump:

  https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1282899963274506241

  Average: National: Biden +8.9

  Michigan: Biden +9.4

  Nevada: Biden +8.3

  New Hampshire: Biden +8.0

  Wisconsin: Biden +7.8

  Pennsylvania: Biden +7.3

  Florida: Biden +6.0

  North Carolina: Biden +3.2

  Ohio: Biden +2.3

  Arizona: Biden +2.2

  Georgia: Biden +0.9

  Texas: Trump +0.1

  Iowa: Trump +0.6
  
  iowa (!!!) and Texas (!!!!!!!!) competitive? Not to mention team Trump is behind in virtually every purple state.

  Still looking like a bloodbath.
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  25

  The Watchtower—Study Edition | August 2020

  by RULES & REGULATIONS in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  the watchtower—study edition | august 2020 .

  study article 33. the resurrection reveals god’s love, wisdom, and patience.

  8 for a number of reasons, we can assume that those greeting resurrected individuals will be able to recognize their loved ones.

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  sir82

  Does anybody remember the movie from a few years back, "The Prestige"?

  Highlights a particularly unsettling consequence of the "just re-create the body" idea that is, of course, much different than a "resurrection".
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  55

  Watchtower Sudy 12 July.the Kings of North & South (from 05/20 issue)

  by BluesBrother in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  it is a challenge next sunday for them .

  due to starting the convention programme the wt study will be a 30 minute run through ,and deals with this prophecy ... i doubt the younger ones are familiar with it at all bur oldies could debate it at length .we on the look out for the king of the north to enter "the land of decoration" (more to follow,maybe next week).

  this article makes a grand claim in par 2.

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  sir82

  I was disappointed in the demotion of Queen Zenobia (footnote, paragraph 5). In the original printing of the "Daniel's Prophecy" book, she was a "King(?) of the South". Now she's nothing.

  B*astards. She was one of the few interesting characters in that book, and now she's just another miscellaneous Syrian empress, at least in WT-world.
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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

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  sir82

  Thanks for the link, unfortunately it is firewalled for me.

  It would be interesting to know the methodology he uses. Of course the grand caveat in all such models, "correlation does not imply causation". It's fairly easy to "retcon" a model to fit past circumstances and say "this will predict the future", but that is not always the case.

  That, and circumstances now are much different than 4 months ago, and indeed much different than in any other past presidential election. There are simultaneous unprecedented (or at least exceedingly rare) crises shaping public opinion. The candidates' positions and responses to those crises will drive the voting results far more than any of the "traditional" motivations in 2020. So I wonder if his modeling takes these highly unusual circumstances into account.
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  5

  Congregation Judicial Hearing Centres (Kangaroo Courts)

  by Slidin Fast in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  so, now it's official.

  the only use for kingdom halls in england is for judicial committee hearings.

  meetings?

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  sir82

  In the US, Kingdom Halls can't even be used for judicial meetings. All DF issues are "held in abeyance" until further notice.

  Of course JWs continue to commit "grave sins" at the same rate as before, so there is a building backlog of cases that are kind of in limbo. There is a growing number of JWs who are still technically "in good standing" but have a looming judicial committee meeting coming in 3? 6? 9? 12? more? months.
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  66

  Now we have a Mary Trump book coming out ...

  by RubaDub in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i have to admit, this president can stir up shit.

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  other than some people who failed 10th grade or have a confederate flag on the back of their pickup trucks, who actually likes him?.

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  sir82

  You leftist's act like you're non-violent, but constantly verbally and even physically attack those who disagree with your screwed up rhetoric.

  My request, take your Marxist shit and put it up your own ass.

  LOL. Barely made it to the next paragraph before doing what you complain about.
  
  
  
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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

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  sir82

  There is a professor who has been predicting election results and has only failed twice, that is giving Trump a 91% chance of winning and I think he is on the money.

  Link?
  
  
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
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• 

  sir82

  Wishful thinking:

  No way Trump can lose.

  
  
  
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  sir82

  Wishful thinking:

  Biden's now up just 4 points, that's a far cry from 10+ safety a few weeks ago

  Reality, from Trump's favorite poll:

  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Biden earning 50% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 40%.

  https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul08
  

  Wishful thinking:
  

  you need to flip entire states not just sample the majority in CA and NY.

  Reality:

  • Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.

  • Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.

  • Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.

  • Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.

  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-july-2020-electoral-college-ratings

  Trumpists can fantasize all they want to, but (keeping in mind the election is 4 months away and a lot can happen in the interim) it's looking like a catastrophe for 45.
  
  
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
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• 

  sir82

  Electoral projections:

  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-july-2020-electoral-college-ratings

  These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).
  Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina” moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.

  In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.

  Less than 4 months to the election, and Trump is either unwilling to or incapable of altering his approach to change the minds of voters not in his base.

  To me, it looks like not only a Biden presidency, but also Democratic control of both chambers of congress.