sir82

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Posts by sir82

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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

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  sir82

  Ah what the hey, I'll post this too.

  Happy weekend everyone!

  https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/708658?unlock=XZMW5BGIJVUT6MJF

  Republicans are inching closer to a political wipeout, losing complete control of power in Washington. The way things are going, the 2018 midterms may end up looking like a GOP high water mark.

  Internal Republican divisions are also beginning to emerge, in ways that suggest the party is already looking ahead to a post-Trump future.

  This is the sign of a political death spiral. At this point, Republicans would be content to suffer through another blue-wave election, holding out hope the Senate could remain narrowly in Republican hands. Right now, Republicans are staring at the reality of a historic tsunami, wiping out all their avenues of power in a rebuke against a hapless president.

  And, yes, I know....the election is 3+ months away and "anything can happen". But eventually you run out of time from "it's still early".
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

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  sir82

  And team Trump's miserable ratings continue to drag down Senate races:

  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/almost-100-days-out-democrats-are-favored-take-back-senate

  Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate

  “Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.”

  July Ratings Changes:
  Arizona: Martha McSally (R) — Toss Up → Lean D
  Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) — Lean R → Toss Up
  Georgia: David Perdue (R) — Lean R → Toss Up
  Minnesota: Tina Smith (D) — Likely D → Solid D
  New Mexico: OPEN (Udall) — Likely D → Solid D

  It is increasingly likely that Democrats will control the executive branch and both houses of Congress next year.

  I continue to expect McConnell & co. to begin their retreat from Trump, most likely soon after Labor Day if things continue as they are. I.e., by my reckoning, team Trump has about 6 weeks to turn things around before the "abandon ship!" call is made.
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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

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  sir82

  Are you suggesting that claiming to "ace" a dementia test and being able to successfully tell an elephant from a camel might not reassure undecided voters of your mental acuity?

  Who'da thunk it?
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

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  sir82

  And some more bad news for team Trump at the end of the week, from former favorite Fox:

  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-battlegrounds-michigan-minnesota-pennsylvania

  3 key battleground states:

  Biden maintains his lead in Michigan, topping Trump by 9 points, 49-40 percent.

  
  (Minnesota) That puts Biden up by 13 points in the presidential race, 51 percent to Trump’s 38 percent.

  (Pennsylvania) Biden is ahead of Trump by 50-39 percent in the Keystone State.

  Week after week after week after week after week, the news is unrelentingly horrific for the Trump campaign. "Secret Trump voters" (if such exist) are not enough to overcome such gaping deficits.

  For the folks who complain about "biased polling", is even Fox News misrepresenting the results by not selecting a truly random sample?

  
  
  
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  21

  2020 Convention Friday Highlights: Information Control and Hypocrisy

  by neat blue dog in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  there's yet another talk to add to the list of talks written specifically for damage control against "apostates".

  the speaker says, "some who were once part of the christian congregation attempt to mislead us", that they tell "false accusations" & "lies".

  to combat this, he says that you should "protect your ears from damaging noise by not listening to it", comparing it to wearing "noise canceling headphones".

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  sir82

  I like how they tell you to "stand and sing song number garbledy-garble" during the "intermission".

  I can tell you EX-ACT-LY which uber-dubs, dressed up in suits & dresses, including dress shoes, while watching the convention in their own living room on their own TV, with no one else around, actually (fer the luv-a-gawd) STAND UP to sing.

  And who then "remain standing while the announcements are read".
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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
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• 

  sir82

  The first bad news for team Trump this week:

  https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

  Overall, 36% of Americans say that they approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, 60% disapprove, and 4% are undecided.

  That's a net -24 (36 - 60). Three months ago it was -14 (41 - 55).

  The numbers continue to get worse and worse for him every passing week.

  Wonder how today's campaign rally, oops, Coronavirus briefing, will go.
  
  

  
  
  
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  22

  Thoughts on Sunning and blood Doctrines.

  by Phizzy in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i have a couple of thoughts on the blood and shunning doctrines, both of which have been covered well before.

  here, and on j.w facts.com and elsewhere.. but i would like to point out the following, the only scriptures they can use in reality for their blood doctrine are the verses from acts chapter 15. o.t verse are really out of the question, and dishonest to use on their part, as they do not follow most of the injunctions in there!.

  the context of acts 15 is a council of the apostles and others in the jerusalem congregation, to decide what they should ask of gentile christians in the way of behaviours and practices etc, as jewish christians were demanding they comply with the mosaic law, or were, at the very least offended if they did not.

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  sir82

  I think it was AlanF who came up with this conundrum to pose to JWs who insist that "transfusing blood" is exactly equal to "eating blood":

  If a man was brought into a hospital dying of starvation, would a blood transfusion resolve the issue?
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  31

  Just wanting confirmation on an unofficial JW experience

  by joe134cd in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  just wondering if anyone can confirm or deny this unofficial jw experience that my father received by email.

  i’ve told him that it against wt rules to forward unofficial accounts.

  but of course he just puts that down to apostate driven lies.

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  sir82

  I've not heard that one, but it perfectly fits the pattern of dozens if not hundreds of other JW urban legends....

  "A sister who cleans the house of the president of an African nation.....and a fine witness was given..."

  "A brother happened to be sitting next to a famous Hollywood actor in an airport.....and a fine witness was given...."

  "A sister sent an email to the CEO of a 'no blood transfusion' surgical hospital.....and a fine witness was given..."

  And on and on. Just enough detail so it sounds plausible, but no names, dates, internet links...no verifiable claims at all.
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  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  sir82

  Trump's campaign is exclusively focused on motivating his base.

  But his base is shrinking.

  https://news.gallup.com/poll/315734/party-preferences-swung-sharply-toward-democrats.aspx?utm_source=twitterbutton&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=sharing

  Since January, Americans' party preferences have shifted dramatically in the Democratic Party's direction. What had been a two-percentage-point Republican advantage in U.S. party identification and leaning has become an 11-point Democratic advantage...

  Four months before Election Day, Democrats appear to be as strong politically now as they were in 2018 when they reclaimed the majority in the House of Representatives and gained seven governorships they previously did not hold.

  One can argue, maybe, that some persons don't want to self-identify as "Trump voters" when polled, but party affiliation is a different kettle of fish.
  
  
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  sir82

  Today's bad news for team Trump:

  https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3666

  Biden's lead is widening:

  Registered voters back Biden over Trump 52 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This compares to a June 18th national poll when Biden led Trump 49 - 41 percent.
  Independents are a key factor behind Biden's widening lead as they now back him 51 - 34 percent, while in June, independents were split with 43 percent for Biden and 40 percent for Trump.

  Voters give President Trump a negative 36 - 60 percent job approval rating, a 6 point drop in his job approval compared to last month. In that June 18th poll, Trump had a negative 42 - 55 percent job approval rating. Trump's net job approval is his worst since August of 2017.

  36% is about as low as he's ever been. Low 30's, McConnell starts writing "the talk". Below 30, he trudges over to the Oval Office to give it.

  I'm going to need to come up with a different word, "brutal" doesn't begin to cover it.