I was speaking with a middle-of-the-road Evangelical scholar from one of their "more prestigious" colleges about dwindling numbers in that camp, their closing schools, and the youth not staying. We also talked about Reform/Progressive Judaism (liberals), as well as liberal Protestants. ALL of them are suffering from a drainage of young people not staying in these traditions that they were raised in. It's really hurting such groups in the wallet.
The one exception this chap pointed out was the hard-core right-wing Evangelicals, pro-Trump groups who think they can "save America" (= adopt by-gone morality and standards), a different sort of fantasy. That's not likely to continue. Perhaps a sort of last gasp from the Evangelicals?
It looks like it's happening all over Western culture. What occurred in N. Europe a couple of decades after WW II is happening in America and Canada now. There's no turning back the clock. SBF has been pointing this out for some time. It will be interesting to see if this trend takes hold in Latin America, a place where traditionally SDAs, Mormons, Evangelicals, and JWs have had real growth in the past.
It would be interesting if we could somehow get the "real story" behind those few youths in these groups, JWs and others, who stay in, at least nominally. Are they mainly brain-dead or so absent of critical thinking that this is the only sanctuary for them? Are their needs for safety and security so acutely basic that they must cling to these traditions that they were raised in? Are many/most who stay just faking it in order to keep family happy? That last group cannot keep that going for long. Their true feelings will eventually come out.
Thanks for the post, WC. It's a sure trend that will only keep going on in one direction, toward secularism.