Obervador,
I am not in denial. I was merely pointing out the absolute number in the case of the US. And you're right in same cases where a "0" was listed there was indeed a slight decrease in either the average number of publishers or the maxium number. But in those cases the decrease was still less than 1%, so it was no listed in the table. In the US, however, even though it is listed a "0", there was an increase in both the number of average publishers, as well as the maxium number listed. In, any case, there was a global 1.3 increase worldwide, with an increase of 100,697 in peak publishers. So may argument is still statistical. Of course, it may be argued on a biblical basis that a cleansing may be going on. But, according to elders and other Witnesses I spoke, the slow in the growth does not mean many are leaving. But there are a brothers that are inactive in preaching service (even though they still attend the meetings regularly). Saturday or Sunday meeting attendance is still robust. But it appears that some brothers have longer working, with jobs demanding more and more of their time, and may not go out preaching as often (although I hear that many continue to preach informal at their jobs. Since informal preaching is not required to be counted or reported no record of that activity is kept). One other point I hear, is that in the US there is a growing population of elderly brothers. Many of these rarely preach and as result may not appear in the publishers figure. I have not been able to verify it, but was told that the average number of inactive elderly brothers has increased to about 3 per congregation in the US. Yet we recognize them as brothers and sisters which we dearly love (a friend from the UK tells that average in Britian is higher, about 5 elderly brothers. He also mentioned to me that more and more Evangelicals are attending the Kingdom Hall meetings, many of them starting to study with the Witnesses. Apparently, many of them were shocked that American Evangelicals voted for Bush and many of them UK counterparts strongly felt the war was unethical and unchristian. Since they are aware of the Witness stance of neutrality and not serving in the Army, many British evangelicals have taken an interest in what Witnesses teach).
One other point I would like to make. Some of posters hear appear to be very happy that there has been a slow down, and seem to suggest that major decreases are on their way. True in European countries growth has slowed or stabilized. But Witnesses are still the 2nd largest religious group in Italy, Spain and Portugal. In Japan there has been a slowdown, but again the Witnesses are still the 2nd largest Christian group. And this is just based on the count of active publishers, not including those who attend regularly. Also, there is still an excellent potential of increasing growth. The new book, "What Does the Bible Really Teach" may help spur a large increase. Remember, back in 1978, 1979, 1980. The yearbooks back then showed 1.0 decrease, then 1.4 decrease, and then in 1980 a mere 0.5 decrease. I recalled a TV program where an Ex-Witness gleefully alluded to those numbers, saying the Witnesses are coming to an end. During that were only 2 million members, with 5 million attending the memorial service. However, the figures of active Christians has tripled to more than 6.6 million, while the attendance to memorial service of Christ's death has mushroomed to over 16 million. I believe Witnesses will continue to grow in the near future.
- David
