last circuit assembly there was 700+ present and 1 baptized.. recently there was a foreign language assemble of over 500 and 1 baptized.. in the last 5-10 years i haven't been to one assembly where there has been more than a handful baptized.
at the memorial all i see are the same old faces that have been coming since the flood.. the hall complex i attend has 6 congregation and several groups-there is negative growth.
when you factor in the demographically aging folk and the many who have already passed away, i don't know where they get the 8 million.. i know that most of the growth is from the developing countries, but still i think they are fudging their numbers.
To add...
Also consider that many/most JWs have children these days. This was not the case before the mid-1990s. The 1-2% growth that is reported is roughly consistent with population growth. No converts here.
Most converts are in underdeveloped countries, (at least where things such as sharia law do not exist), or those with severe social issues.
Any increase in numbers in developed countries is based on the fudging above, children being born and "publishing", and immigrant migration.
d4g
last circuit assembly there was 700+ present and 1 baptized.. recently there was a foreign language assemble of over 500 and 1 baptized.. in the last 5-10 years i haven't been to one assembly where there has been more than a handful baptized.
at the memorial all i see are the same old faces that have been coming since the flood.. the hall complex i attend has 6 congregation and several groups-there is negative growth.
when you factor in the demographically aging folk and the many who have already passed away, i don't know where they get the 8 million.. i know that most of the growth is from the developing countries, but still i think they are fudging their numbers.
Since the membership accounting is based on turning in "time", there is lots of room for fudging. This is done from Joe/Jane publisher, all the way to the top.
First of all, consider that members are constantly coerced to actually turn in time. There is a negative social stigma associated with not doing so, in the form of being labeled "irregular", or "inactive". Nobody wants those labels, if they care about their status in the congregation. There is no telling how many individual members turn in time that have zero desire to do so.
Secondly, the organization is not transparent in how it performs the accounting to begin with. What is a "publisher" really? Must they be baptized to be counted? Do they count heads when convenient? There are so many things that can be "adjusted" behind the scenes, that numbers can be spun positive for some time just by changing what is being counted.
Figures don't lie, but liars can figure.
d4g
heard 4th-hand, but from a full-on believer, so not likely to be an "apostate lie":.
apparently, at bethel's morning worship this morning, it was announced that all worldwide wts construction is "suspended" for an indefinite time, except for the new world headquarters at warwick.. also, the "relocation" of remote translating teams is also suspended.. finally, there will be a "worldwide" reduction in bethel personnel.. all this came to me in a non-english language, and,as noted, 4th-hand.
so it is possible something may have been lost in translation and/or in the multiple steps between bethel morning worship & me.. but if true, it would be quite stunning.
SBF:
Good to see you again!
d4g
i can't begin to count all the changes that have happened in the last five years.. i just read they're getting rid of the theocratic ministry school from cedar's blog.. i remember when they released the new theo school book back in 2001. how times have changed.. it's almost scary in a way what's happening.
there's barely any time to adapt to one change before another change comes along.. there's been more changes in the last five years than the previous 100 years.. i feel like there's some grand puppet master pulling his string.. what if the governing body are not really in charge but just give the impression they're in charge.
could there be someone else behind the scenes?.
The GB are true believers in something that is not based in fact and reason.
WT is an authoritarian organization.
Authoritarian organizations are reactionary.
Authoritarian organizations are authoritarian because their leaders are true believers, and as a result live by ideology, not fact and reason.
When people don't live in a world based in fact and reason, they make bad decisions, (eventually).
At a high level, that is what we are seeing the effects of.
d4g
i did not believe i would see the demise of the wt in my lifetime, and maybe i will not, they may be able to ride out their present problems.. but how do you think this will affect the average, loyal, believing jw ?.
usually most things just wash over them, if there is a slight niggle, they use their well-worn way of explaining things to themselves as in "the end is near" or "jehovah knows best" etc etc.
but the huge sea-change in corporate policy that we see unfolding, all construction work stopped, except warwick and maybe their biggest project, chelmsford u.k. huge bethel layoffs, and the lifestyle of the remaining staff reduced to virtual slavery, more bethel closures, spiritual food reduced for the public as well as the r&f, and all of this being the opposite of what they have claimed was evidence of jehovah's blessing ???.
I seriously doubt they will announce such set back to all JWs.
Maybe not. However, how long could something like that be hidden???
d4g
the chelmsford project in the uk has already come to a halt and every one has been sent home.
the bethel family in london is to be cut by several hundred.
my impression is that most ambitious youngster in the org dream of being involved with the building program.
There are a few things that can be said for sure, but they are mostly general.
The WT is an authoritarian organization.
Authoritarian organizations, are reactionary by nature.
Many major changes have taken place, (financial structure wise, as well as social), that point to an organization in transition, and has been in earnest, at least since 2012, and some changes several years before that.
WT is under enormous legal and PR pressure on several different fronts. (Child abuse, shunning, blood, charity in question, etc.).
My best guess is something went pop, and something anticipated, (but not strategically planned for), came upon the organization, or they are expecting it to, hence the 180.
Otherwise, the pieces of the puzzle just don't fit without resorting to conspiracies. Conspiracy theories are wrong at least 99% of the time.
Look at the big picture.
d4g
first off, i'd like to state that i currently have "privileges" in the congregation and volunteer at bethel on and off throughout the year.
that's as much information as i will currently give about myself.. starting off, i think something big is coming in the form of lawsuits and bad pr.
they seem to be batting down the hatches in preparation for something the last few years and even more so the last few months.
neverendingjourney - If things get dire enough, do they accept having a tax imposed on them and go back to charging for everything, a quarter for digital downloads, a dollar per magazine, etc.?
Cannot happen, unless there is a complete change of business model. Tax-free organizations are dependent on that status to remain in the black. Everything pretty much becomes taxable once that line is crossed, (real estate, capital gains, sales, etc). The society changed to a "donation" basis 25 years ago, kicking and screaming quietly just to avoid that change of status, as it likely would have bankrupted them in a few years. They will not do it now, because they cannot.
It is possible to do however if planned properly, but would require a major sell off of assets, and restructuring.
d4g
if an (aggressive) real estate fund is stopping it's operations directly,.
and if an publishing house is minimize the portfolio,.
and if a member of it's board of directors is telling the costs are higher then the profits,.
Immediate insolvency type issue? Not likely. Long-term sustainability concerns? Oh, they have those for a certainty. Is the current stop on a dime changes related to that? That would seem a bit extreme. So it is anyone's guess...
Something is up for sure. That something might be something else other than a financial concern altogether. I don't much care for blind speculation, but the pieces don't quite fit on this one, after giving it some thought over the last few days. While the anecdotal evidence points to something financial, I am not so sure that is a given. They would have to have been way off in their forecasting to cancel almost all projects. I will use the same reasoning I did on 9/11 when taxiing on the tarmac in Huston towards the gate on a business trip, when over the PA it was stated, "all connecting flights have been cancelled, as all airports in the USA are shut down, due to the 'incident' in NY...". My first thought was, "That never happened before in the history of aviation, what the hell just happened?". Likewise, the WT never cancelled all major construction before. Something is up, and I don't know that it is just about immediate finances.
I would theorize that something much bigger could be in the works. As Orphan Crow pointed out on another thread, it could be something anticipated, however not necessarily planned for. I would not go as far as an ordered shut down, (at least not internationally), maybe something more localized, but equally upsetting to the R&F, if they were to discover it. Creating a financial issue smokescreen could be just the distraction needed.
I would go as far to say that all of the changes over the last few years might have something to do with this. There is some serious re-branding and re-positioning taking place. Maybe that is not such a coincidence after all.
Time will tell.
d4g
i'm not sure if this topic has ever been posted (surely, i believe it has), but it would be interesting to revive such a topic and hear your stories!.
when my parents heard my first rant (after they told me to be home schooled when i was caught kissing a girl) they entered into a long depression that continues to this day.
my father suffers knowing his once amazing family is now divided, and my mother is equally angry.
One dear friend freaked out. I still want to fix that.
One other, (related to the friend mentioned above), is tolerant, but keeps me at arm's length.
The rest? I could care less. Fuck 'em.
d4g
my thoughts are.
1. they want to avoid being made to comply with any laws that come with anything classed as a "school" especially a school with children enrolled.. 2. the mid-week meeting has been dying in the ass for years and needs a revival.
i predict happy -clappy-sing-a-longs to be included in the program.. anyone else have any thoughts ??
WT does all things for one of two reasons: Control of members or economic reasons. These two motivators are about the organizations survival, and that is what it is trying to do. Always start from there.
In this case, I think they realized they lost control of people with respect to reliably caring for assignments and the use of "qualified" men for those parts. So in a way this is about saving face and making things appear less of a malaise than they actually are. It fits more into the control camp, albeit indirectly.
d4g
