mrmagic- Many of the comments here are interesting and certainly valid. One thing that is lacking here, however, is the mention/understanding of Moore's Law, as concerns the Internet/technology. The advancement of technology certainly has contributed to large numbers of people leaving and waking up. In the developed countries, there is a decline which is steadily increasing.
However, technology does not advance sequentially. Technology advances exponentially.We tend to calculate and analyze future probabilities for the Watchtower, based on our past experience of change within institutions in general. This is a mistake, as change is happening exponentially, not sequentially.
With increasing exponential Internet/technology advancements, there come increasingly more new ways of change that none of us could have imagined. Who would have thought that social media, forums and the Internet would be so crucial in connecting us together back in the 60's, 70's, 80's and even 90's?
The cult organization may not change, however, the world around it is, and at an exponential rate. Generation gaps used to be 20 years. Now they're 5 years or so.
My guess is that the cult will still exist as a corporation, however, if it will have any viability or life left is another story.
If the Watchtower Org handles its accounting the same way it handles its child abuse scandals, then it certainly won't look good for them. My 2 cents.
Nice point about Moore's Law. I brought this up before, and have made a similar point. A good book that explains the concept of Moore's Law well, and its larger impact on society is The Second Machine Age - Work Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. In short, while the technology of doubling transistor, resistor and diode density on an integrated circuit and by extension processing power every 18-24 months or so has held steady since Gordon Moore first wrote about the concept in 1965, we are only beginning to see the era of an exponential impact on society that trajectory of technological advancement has brought. This will bring significant change to society over the next 50 years or so.
The WT is in no way prepared for this. Its business model was never designed to withstand not only the enormous information flow this is bringing, but also that information's impact on society as a whole as it forces changes on many long standing institutions. There is a reason for the changes we see in developed countries, and the common factor is a better informed society as a whole. Very soon the idea of end-times religion will sound as ridiculous as belief in the Easter bunny.
d4g