Posts by done4good

108

Heil Trump. Sieg Heil.

by oppostate in

crowd looking like they're doing the heil hitler salute to trump when he asks for a pledge and swear their support while calling for broadening torture laws.

trump asks backers to swear their support, vows to broaden torture laws.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/donald-trump-florida-pledge-torture/.

done4good

OMG, you guys! "Idiots in the White House", "Dog whistle politics", "emotional appeals", what are you smoking? That somes up the campaign strategy of EVERY politician....EVER!!!

Oversimplification of the root cause of the nation's problems is what politicians do when they want votes. Politicians understand they need to appeal to the average person, (meaning average intelligence, education, etc.), and not necessarily the ones that can actually grasp the true and much more complex reasons for why we see some of the systemic problems we see. The easiest path to this usually is an appeal to fear. Blame the immigrants, blame an entire region of the world, etc. Hint: Illegal immigration and Islamic terrorism are not the root cause of anything. They are symptoms of a much more complex socio-economic and socio-political system that took decades to evolve. No president of any nation is going to undo that in fours years, much less through undiplomatic, impractical, Neanderthal means. There is a reason why Trump hosted a reality show, the audience he appealed to there are pretty much the same audience he is appealing to in the political arena. Very average people that are not likely to think through problems. A few of these people just actually might be a bit bigoted, because guess what, bigotry's roots lie in fear. This is the particular dog whistle frequency that Trump is playing, (pitched down just enough to be heard by a broader audience than the GOP typically appeal to).

The GOP is concerned about Trump, not primarily because they believe they will lose to him, (although that is looking probable at this point), rather more because they believe they will lose the party to him. It is correct the GOP have used the dog whistle a very long time. Trump is actually blowing their cover. That is not good news for the GOP moving forward beyond 2016, (regardless of the immediate outcome), as they have been unmasked as the backwards thinking, anti-science, anti-reason, group that they have long since become. The same people voting for Trump were former Tea Partiers, and Gingrich neocons before that. Trump is just the latest manifestation, (and his candidacy a symptom of itself), of a group of a fearful and mostly lazy people that would rather not bother to take to the time to correct the problems by looking at the big picture first.

In terms of the economic disparity we see, until the plutocracy we have in this country and abroad is brought under control, through reversal of Citizen's United, sensible tax policy, a better educated electorate, better public schools, etc., no meaningful changes are going to made. There are no short cuts, folks.

d4g

108

Heil Trump. Sieg Heil.

by oppostate in

crowd looking like they're doing the heil hitler salute to trump when he asks for a pledge and swear their support while calling for broadening torture laws.

trump asks backers to swear their support, vows to broaden torture laws.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/donald-trump-florida-pledge-torture/.

done4good

However, it would've been nice to have him as the GOP nominee; it would have ensured a future Democrat President.

I wouldn't worry about that. The GOP is unelectable in the general election. Election for the presidency, (thankfully), does not work anything like the House. A true majority actually has to win - What a concept!

d4g

108

Heil Trump. Sieg Heil.

by oppostate in

crowd looking like they're doing the heil hitler salute to trump when he asks for a pledge and swear their support while calling for broadening torture laws.

trump asks backers to swear their support, vows to broaden torture laws.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/donald-trump-florida-pledge-torture/.

done4good

Let me ask all of you Trump supporters one thing: Have you heard of dog whistle politics?

I will give you all the benefit of the doubt that you are simply misguided ex-JW political neophytes. That is a better outcome than you actually being tuned into the dog whistle, trust me.

d4g

92

Only a few days ago I was entirely lost and without hope the rug was pulled out from under me

by elderess in

jw
friends

only a few days ago i was walking around the house in a mindless wander thinking if i needed to seek professional help.

then i got the courage to seek the comfort of complete strangers on the internet and found a world of support here on this website.

thank you simon and whoever else has made this website possible.

done4good

What a great story!

d4g

41

Could we ever see a GB member disassociate?

by pleaseresearch in

we saw it with raymond franz.

but do you think we could ever see one of the current gb members or future ones, make the same choice?.

to leave, and expose it..

done4good

To answer the OP, it would be extremely unlikely.

As mentioned, Ray Franz did not disassociate. However, he did have the moral character to challenge the prevailing direction the organization had long since been following. He was intelligent, articulate, well connected, (Freddy's nephew), and just a bit naive. He was also young by standards of the day, (around 50 when the GB was formed in 1971).

The GB of the '70s were of a very different era, and came to power for different reasons than their current existence is being allowed for today. Pre-GB, (1971), Knorr had 100% control of the organization. Knorr also trusted in his little buddy, Fred Franz, unquestionably in areas of doctrinal concern. Due to the 1975 hysteria, (created by F. Franz), the presidency was about to run the organization off a cliff. The board of directors saw this threat, and knew it had to act to perform damage control long before 1975 came around. The board promoted itself to become the "Governing Body", (prior to 1971, any reference to the board of directors as a governing body, used the non-proper lower case reference), absorbed the president and vice-president to save face with the R&F, (the presidency was vehemently against the arrangement, as they saw it for what it was, essential mutiny), and by Jan 1, 1976, (not a coincidence), assumed 100% control over all of the organization's business. Ray was one of an additional 11 added to that board between 1971-1974.

That was the Governing Body that Ray attempted to challenge. A new, untested, somewhat disorganized group of 18 members. While this group may have been formed to prevent the corruption that existed among the presidency, at the end of the day, no progressive reforms were ever made in the organization. The authoritarian structure remained, and it simply refracted itself from a small concentrated oligarchy of one or two, to a new group of 18. Ray was not a lone wolf, however he, (and perhaps Swingle and Sydlik), were not able to overcome the inertia of the authoritarian structure. Since Ray was the most vocal of any would-be reformer, he was pushed out.

I added the above for context. Today, the corporate structure, business model, and purpose of the GB itself are very different from what they were in 1970s or 1980s. A Ray Franz type incident today would be a true black swan event, not impossible, but very improbable. If it were to happen, it would shake the organization to its knees, and for this reason alone, a structure has been created to prevent it from happening.

d4g

43

Jehovah's Witnesses: A Clear Decline

by Hadriel in

it is rather clear that the internet is to put it mildly, wrecking the world of the watchtower bible & tract society.

if not for foreign language i doubt there would be much growth at all.. digital trends and analytics are very real.

i live this analytics world i assure you to some degree you can take it to the bank.

done4good

Why is it every time this is discussed, people take either extreme? It is always either "the religion is going to be gone in 10 years, (or less)", or someone points out how some fringe group like the Amish or Christadelphians still exists, (the latter does not even spell check), so the WT will be around in current form forever. Neither extreme is correct.

The facts:

1. The religion has undergone major changes in the last 10 years in response to a changing society around them, (unless of course you subscribe to Ayn Rand's theory that society does not exist. Then I can't help you...).

2. All of the changes have been reactionary or tactical in nature, not strategic. Tactics eventually fail, given enough time. This is probabilistic in nature. A long-term strategy would need to be developed for their long-term existence, and this the WT does not have. Authoritarian organizations rarely do, and eventually die out because of it, as social evolution takes place.

3. Moore's law, (including all technology that it has promoted, internet, smartphones, etc.), is having a significant effect on society in general, accelerating the pace of that evolution, and all organizations, groups, or individuals that resist the changes brought by it appear more ridiculous all the time, (just look at the republican party today). The intelligent and otherwise sane ones slowly depart, causing a "brain drain", leaving only the crazies. This further drives out the remaining sane ones, which creates a positive feedback loop that leads to further instability.

On the other hand:

4. Religions die hard, so nothing immediate is likely to befall the WT.

5. Religious beliefs are also difficult to overcome on a personal level, if one has much invested in them. By nature, authoritarian groups require significant investment of personal resources, so this happens almost by default with a religion such as the JW.

I have said this many times on this forum recently that a tipping point has likely been reached where it has at least become highly unlikely, if not impossible for any non-born in/raised in person to become a JW. The days of making intelligent, educated converts is over. This is a good indicator that the organization is in a long-term demise. That demise will take time, probably several decades. They will eventually wither away, but likely exist in some form as the fringe groups mentioned.

d4g

162

Do you still believe in God?

by FormerlySandL in

i never thought i would admit it, but i don't.

i might superstitiously have some kind of doubt but digging a bit deeper in my heart i really don't believe in god.

as a human i could never just sit and watch people be tortured, live years of abuse, suffer from illness and disabilities and all the other awful things people have to endure day after day without doing something about it.

done4good

Were God to intervene in a small way - heal a famine, abate a war, remove some dictator - we would rely on it and never actually learn, and God would become a kind of on-call fixer rather than the Father He should be.

I usually stay far away from these atheist vs. theist discussions, as rarely are they productive, (although never hide the fact I am atheist), but this is quite possibly the worst rationale I have ever seen for the explanation of why an omnipotent god would allow suffering. What kind of "father" would allow those things if it was in his power to do something about it???

d4g

56

What TV shows were forbidden in your JW household?

by Funchback in

in the u.s., three's company was not allowed.

it was explained to me that it was an immoral show because a man and women lived together and no one was married.

the sister who gave this observation was a family friend and we were newbies to the religion.. at least i somehow managed to watch the benny hill show undetected..

done4good

Most were OK, but by 1985, (I was already watching it for 4 years by then, mind you), my mother claimed MTV was not allowed. No exceptions. She always had strange peeves about certain things, and not others, and stubborn as hell when she did take a position against something. We had some blow out arguments over this...

She was also a closet soap addict and loved Dallas back in the day...

d4g

61

The Watchtower Org will die.

by Freeandclear in

jw
friends

i was just reading through some posts and had a startling realization.. the comment that sparked this went something like this: why oh why when i started into this in 1989 did i not research the history of the wtbts?

etc....... i too was studying and moving towards baptism around that same time.

i got dunked in dec of 1990.. my thought.

done4good

mrmagic- Many of the comments here are interesting and certainly valid. One thing that is lacking here, however, is the mention/understanding of Moore's Law, as concerns the Internet/technology. The advancement of technology certainly has contributed to large numbers of people leaving and waking up. In the developed countries, there is a decline which is steadily increasing.
However, technology does not advance sequentially. Technology advances exponentially.We tend to calculate and analyze future probabilities for the Watchtower, based on our past experience of change within institutions in general. This is a mistake, as change is happening exponentially, not sequentially.
With increasing exponential Internet/technology advancements, there come increasingly more new ways of change that none of us could have imagined. Who would have thought that social media, forums and the Internet would be so crucial in connecting us together back in the 60's, 70's, 80's and even 90's?

The cult organization may not change, however, the world around it is, and at an exponential rate. Generation gaps used to be 20 years. Now they're 5 years or so.

My guess is that the cult will still exist as a corporation, however, if it will have any viability or life left is another story.

If the Watchtower Org handles its accounting the same way it handles its child abuse scandals, then it certainly won't look good for them. My 2 cents.

Nice point about Moore's Law. I brought this up before, and have made a similar point. A good book that explains the concept of Moore's Law well, and its larger impact on society is The Second Machine Age - Work Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. In short, while the technology of doubling transistor, resistor and diode density on an integrated circuit and by extension processing power every 18-24 months or so has held steady since Gordon Moore first wrote about the concept in 1965, we are only beginning to see the era of an exponential impact on society that trajectory of technological advancement has brought. This will bring significant change to society over the next 50 years or so.

The WT is in no way prepared for this. Its business model was never designed to withstand not only the enormous information flow this is bringing, but also that information's impact on society as a whole as it forces changes on many long standing institutions. There is a reason for the changes we see in developed countries, and the common factor is a better informed society as a whole. Very soon the idea of end-times religion will sound as ridiculous as belief in the Easter bunny.

d4g

61

The Watchtower Org will die.

by Freeandclear in

jw
friends

i was just reading through some posts and had a startling realization.. the comment that sparked this went something like this: why oh why when i started into this in 1989 did i not research the history of the wtbts?

etc....... i too was studying and moving towards baptism around that same time.

i got dunked in dec of 1990.. my thought.

done4good

Like AK has said, the WTS has material assets that it can liquidate, reinvest, and perpetuate itself for a long time. To think otherwise is either ignorant or naive. It is also built upon a symbiotic/parasitic relationship between its leadership and members, (as any authoritarian system), and as such, this cycle is difficult to break. By all measures, the WTS will be here a while. Religions have never proven to die easily.

Having said that, I do think in the social sense a tipping point has either been reached, or is just about to. Many long standing institutions have been threatened by the free availability of information and the better educated society that has been made possible by the offering of that information. Ten years ago people would have thought gay marriage, legalized marijuana, improved US diplomatic relations with Cuba, removal of "don't ask don't tell" in the military, etc., to be impossible. All of these things happened, seemingly overnight. By the same measure, when I left the organization 10 years ago, the WTS was anti-internet, never would have allowed social events at a KH, did not beg for money, had no singing carts, no masturbation videos, no televangelism, etc., etc. While in the case of the WT, none of this progress in of itself, it still represents a response to changes in society the WT never thought it would have to adjust to. That is a good indicator of how threatened the WTS actually feels by a changing society around them. The more they change, they less stable they become, since almost all of the changes are tactical responses to either real or perceived threats, not long-term strategic moves.

I'll be long dead by then, but I doubt very highly the WTS will be here by the 22nd century. In the meantime, they are appealing less and less to "normal" people all the time.

d4g