Posts by dubla

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

ydkf-

The broken record metaphor is a good one.

yes, it works well with your yearly predictions.

It is evident to me that you are unable or unwilling to grasp the fact that the stock market is merely part of a much larger financial system ...

i fully understand this, and ive never denied it. it is only a part of the larger picture, its the part everything else revolves around (i.e, the bond market, currencies, and even your favorite part, derivatives). to call it a "side show" is preposterous, but to say its only a part of the larger picture, of course everyone would agree with that.

is now in a full blown collapse phase.

sigh, ridiculous. like i said before yk, when november comes, and the "almighty dollar" is not indeed worthless, then we can talk about the "full blown collapse" that never happened.

I don't deny that there are various formulas that the professional buyers and sellers use to evaluate stocks and bonds.

great, then you fully understand how they evaluate "oversold" and "overbought"......so you too know now that the markets as of last friday were very oversold, which was a big part of the reason why we got such a nice rally yesterday. oh thats right, the markets being oversold had nothing to do with it, it was just the fund managers panic buying to "save" the market from disaster. well i applaud those fund managers, and golly, i wish theyd do that more often, we need more days like that. do you know we had the fifth largest point gain in history yesterday? normally, this would be a CLEAR indicator of an oversold market (and some short covering no doubt), but in this case it was simply those wacky fund managers working their magic!

. Reportedly, the first few lifeboats went out with only a handful of people on each one because many were fearful of being ridiculed by those poor deluded souls who imagined that the ship was unsinkable. Apostates reason much the same way and so do stock brokers.

well, i cant speak for all apostates, but i can speak for myself as a broker when i say that i do not believe the ship is unsinkable. i do think we are seeing a classic case of the cyclical market right now though, which is the only real thing i was arguing to begin with.

The system is finished and yet you imagine that the stock market is oversold!

i imagine nothing. again, "oversold" is a scientific calculation, and yes, as of last friday the market was oversold by -17, which is severly oversold. it now sits at -15.9 btw, which is still very oversold. does this mean it will go straight up? of course not. we might not have even found the bottom yet.

The spector of a world wide financial collapse is not absurd.

no, what is absurd is you predicting that a dollar collapse is imminent, in fact likely coming by the end of october! that is what is absurd.....no.....downright fucking wacky! lol.

I am genuinely puzzled. What is it that you imagine I have no response for?

well, i realize youre puzzled in general, but you know exactly what you have no response for, i posted it twice. but, since you are claiming to be SO puzzled, ill post it again..........

As long as there are suckers to be separated from their money you are going to have guys running around talking about the great bargains to be had.

.....and what i was asking, that i got no response for, was simply.......were those buyers in 1930 and 1988 simply "suckers" ready to "be seperated from their money"? were the brokers, after all the major crashes, these so called "guys running around talking about the great bargains to be had"? my point was, if so, i wish i wouldve been one of those "suckers", because many of them are millionaires now on stock values alone. puzzled or not, i fully expect you to ignore these questions once again, for you have no response to them.

Arrogance, ignorance, and greed are this system's undoing. / You Know

well, im not sure if youre greedy or not, but youve got the rest covered! i believe meatloaf said it best, "two out of three aint bad"! LOL.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

ydkf-

Those terms are relative and don't mean much..

again (boy i sound like a broken record), the terms arent "relative", but they are actually calculated and have a PROVEN record of correlation to the markets ups and downs. again, your ignorance in these matters is more than transparent.

That makes your formula for determining stock values absurd.

its not my formula, but a formula is used, and has a PROVEN record of correlation to the markets ups and downs. so no, its not absurd, but merely proven to be accurate.

The life boats on the Titanic may have been considered in an overbought condition at one point until the fateful encounter with a giant ice cube...

i wont even bother to justify this absurd comparison with a response.

. Therefore, when people like yourself that are in the business refer to the stock market crash as a cyclic occurance you betray your own ignorance of how the system operates.

again, its a proven occurrance which you obviously wish to ignore/discard so that you can make your absurd predictions of financial gloom and doom. we wont recover this time, right, i get it. of course, past performance is not always indicative of future results, and anything can happen. but the cyclical nature of the market has shown itself to be clockwork from the time the very first share was traded right up to today.

i think i may be a prophet now, for my prediction of you ignoring what you have no response for came true!

You are apparently delusional. / You Know

i think all would agree with me that this is a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black. LOL.

aa

17

What about US terrorist groups?

by tdogg in

jw
friends

all of these speeches and tv specials with their analysts and experts but not once have i heard any mention of us terrorist groups.

we are trying to attack the outside world and those who harbor terrorism but i ask: what is the difference between armed men in training camps training to kill with hateful prejudice in say, sudan and the same camps we harbor in say, idaho?

yes, these places are for real and these people are only waiting for an opportunity to use their skills and weapons for their hateful fancies.

dubla

cross-

Not white men
with short hair cuts who want to over throw the US government,
from inside their own country. You see thats LOCAL not GLOBAL
not to worry----LOL

actually you are once again completely incorrect. terrorist organizations inside the u.s. would be included in the word "global" as the u.s. is on the "globe". understand?

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

ydkf-

That you would refer to the art of speculation as a science tells me just how deluded you are.

the art of speculation is not a science; determining the market level of "oversold" or "overbought" is a science, the same as measuring the air temperature (i had hoped this analogy would assist your simple mind with this idea).

. It is definetly not a cyclical event as you imagine

I realize that there are various formulas and computer models that have been devised to help predict the future, but obviously they don't work when unanticipated events take place.

actually, they do. please refer to my previous post regarding market reaction during times of unanticipated tragedies. the markets react the same, every time. again, you can set your watch to it. and again, panic buying has nothing to do with it. the market is cyclical, even/especially during times of unanticipated events. tops and bottoms cannot be predicted, but rising and falling markets can be, every single time.

How have I been humiliated?

by time and time again trying to sound as if you know about the markets and the financial picture, and time and time again getting proven ignorant by my responses.

If the markets crash tomorrow after you pronounced them to be technically "oversold" would that mean that your science failed?

i do not believe that i ever said the markets could only reach a certain point of "oversold" before they would HAVE to rebound. in fact, in the example i used, the markets were even MORE oversold in 87 than they are now, which in itself proves that they can go lower. only a complete moron wouldve missed this point in my post. what i did say is that when the markets reach high levels of being "oversold", they ALWAYS rally. do they rally at -10? sometimes. do they rally at -5? yep, it happens. do they rally at -17 (such was the 10 day "oversold" level that i already mentioned we had reached as of friday)? well, turn on your tv, and youll see that everyone who bought on friday has just turned a nice profit. so, at what point of "oversold" do the markets rally? and can they then drop again? well, if i knew what point they would rally every time, then i wouldnt have to manage portfolios for a living, would i? and yes, of course they can drop again. for one thing yk, after todays rally, the markets will no longer be at a -17 "oversold" level (it will be recalculated). we could get another big drop, followed by another rally, etc, etc,......ITS CYCLICAL. we could get a complete market crash yet.....and again, we would then get a recovery. ITS CYCLICAL. this has been proven time and time again.....its tried and true, and again, you can set your watch to it.

i would like to reiterate a point i made in my last post, that i in fact fully expected you to ignore......

As long as there are suckers to be separated from their money you are going to have guys running around talking about the great bargains to be had.

ive noticed youve mentioned down times such as 1929, and ive mentioned times like the crash of '87. do you think these were times that guys were running around talking about great bargains, and the "suckers" were suckered into buying? honestly, i wish i wouldve been one of those who could be "separated" from my money in 1930 or 1988, because many of those suckers are now millionaires on stock values alone.

......i fully expect you to ignore it again.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

At any rate, your world is coming down and there's nothing you can do about it. / You Know

ah, the failsafe comment....one that cannot be disproved by any means at our disposal.......one to fall back on after being humiliated time and time again. in november of this year, when the dollar to yks dismay is NOT in fact worthless, he will no doubt fall back to statements such as these. "nya nya, nya nya nya.....your world is coming down....." [with thumbs in ears and tongue sticking out].

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

YOU dont KNOW finance-

oh yk, you continue to make a fool of yourself. your lack of knowledge in these areas is so incredibly obvious. it is really unneccesary for me to continue to point out the fallacies in your statements, for you do a better job than i ever could of proving your inability to grasp the financial picture. you come to the conversation obviously unprepared for intelligent responses; it really is sad to watch. yet i continue to respond, if for nothing else, so that readers that are NOT intimately involved in the financial world can see through your smokescreen of deceit.

The U.S. markets are valued at roughly $10 trillion, whereas the derivatives market is 10 times that and ballooning rapidly.

as ive previously explained, the stock market and the derivatives markets are directly linked....they are not two separate issues as you would have us believe.

but I would imagine that the fund managers are panic buying by taking cash out of the money markets and throwing it into the fray to prop up stock prices so as to keep up the illusion.

oh, so thats what happens every time we get a big fall, then a rally. the fund managers are panic buying.....LOL. yk, you have less than zero understanding of the cyclical nature of the stock market. there are ALWAYS falls, or dips as you like to say, and they are ALWAYS followed by periods of rising markets. you can set your watch to it, and anyone with even a small degree of intelligence can grasp this idea. saying that rallies are due to "panic buying" from fund managers is probably one of the most ridiculous notions youve made to date, and that is saying ALOT.

"OVERSOLD" is a term the brokers and analysts use anytime the stock market dips. You are merely parroting the standard line used by the hucksters who are always eager to persuade people not to sell.

actually no, "oversold" is an actual measure of the market, thats why i quoted specific numbers correlating with how far the market was oversold. the level of an oversold market or an overbought market can be measured just as easily as the temperature of the air. i do not try to persuade people not to sell, in fact, when the markets get overbought, which they were in may of this year, and december of '99, we actually encourage selling. in fact, our firm went bearish at the beginning of 2000, and weve done much, much more selling than buying during that span. im not sure which "hucksters" youre referring to, but anyone that actually studies the technical side of the market effectively, can usually predict these periods of "oversold" and "overbought". it is in fact a science, and again, one which you obviously know nothing about. before spouting off your smokescreen about the term "oversold", you shouldve taken my advice and looked it up in a technical analysis guidebook. you might have saved yourself some humiliation.

At every phase of the collapse the analyst on CNBC, and elsewhere, were saying that stocks were oversold and that it was a great time to buy the dip.

some were saying that yes, and some were saying to stay away (our technical anaylst for example has not been recommending buys on these dips, due to the fact that we hadnt had an indication that it was over yet). i agree though that cnbc isnt the place to get your market ideas. you should hear the people that call in saying they saw this stock or that stock on cnbc, and "should i buy it"? the problem is, at any given time on a station like cnbc, youve got 100 different analysts giving 100 opposing opinions. this firm is bullish, that firm is bearish.....this firm is recommending retails while that firm is downgrading retails. for most "green" investors, cnbc is nothing more than confusion, and they would be better served watching friends or fraiser. you no doubt get much of your "knowledge" from sources like cnbc, which may very well be why you are so uninformed and really just downright ignorant when it comes to market talk.

As long as there are suckers to be separated from their money you are going to have guys running around talking about the great bargains to be had.

ive noticed youve mentioned down times such as 1929, and ive mentioned times like the crash of '87. do you think these were times that guys were running around talking about great bargains, and the "suckers" were suckered into buying? honestly, i wish i wouldve been one of those who could be "separated" from my money in 1930 or 1988, because many of those suckers are now millionaires on stock values alone.

It was a case of my underestimating your stupidity.

speaking of underestimating stupidity, i believe i continue to underestimate yours yk, thinking that one of these times youll have an intelligent response to my constant habit of embarrassing you on this thread.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

YOU dont KNOW finance-

Why don't you explain how the financial system can be in a state of war.

thats what we were wondering too, the first time you said it. weve already reposted your initial comment several times, is that not what you meant, or do you just have a lack of grammatical skills?

It (the market) is a part of the financial system that gets the most attention.....

but i thought you had no interest in this side show..? please explain how ("no interest" in the market) = (constant comments on the market).

Looks like there's a bit of panic buying going on today. LOL

again, your lack of a grasp on our financial system humors me even more every time you manifest it. what is going on today has to do with the market being very oversold. (im sure you know nothing of the term oversold, but ill continue to explain without giving a definition. if need be, please look it up in a technical analysis guidebook). you see, the markets 10-day oversold level has now exploded to an incredible -17. october of 1987, when the dow lost 22% on the 19th, the oversold level hit -18. this is a huge indicator that we are seeing capitulation (again, a term you might need to look up), which ALWAYS indicates a nice rally is forthcoming. simple technical analysis of the market predicted todays buying.....panic has nothing to do with it. LOL.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

YOU dont KNOW finance-

Maybe you haven't been keeping up with current events or have been in a coma or something, but FYI: the United States is in a state of war.

several of us have already pointed out that you specifically predicted the "financial system" to be in a state of war, not the u.s. and i see youve backed away from saying we are in a state of "declared war" though, no doubt because you realized that statement was entirely false, as the vast majority of your statements are.

In the past week the stock markets had their worst week since the Great Depression.

how funny it is that you continue to thrust importance on the market decline. after all, the stock market is just a "side show" that you have "no interest" in.

Did you know that it took 30 years for the stock market to recover from the 1929 crash?

personally, yes i did. i also know that declines and rallies happen MUCH more rapidly now than they did from 1929-1960. did you know that the dow fell from 11722 to 9731 (approx. a 2000 point drop) in january and febuary of 2000......and then rallied from 9731 to 11418 in less than 3 weeks? do you think it would take years to gain back the 1300 points we lost last week? of course not.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

YOU dont KNOW finance-

...other many derivatives, in fact most, are related to currencies and bonds.

correct. currencies move up and down with a DIRECT correlation to the market, so im still unclear as to how its just a sideshow to the big picture. in fact, ill repeat myself here and say that for you to say that the stock market is a mere "side-show" to the u.s. financial picture proves unequivocally that it is in fact you who is clueless in these matters.

also, you have completely proved my point about how RIDICULOUS it is to say that "one misplaced bet" can brind down the entire system. this is such a preposterous statement that it almost doesnt deserve a response......but i guess we can go into finance 101 here for a sec......

if you have investments diversified between currency, metals, stocks, bonds, etc. (which is what we are talking about here with your chase example), the REASON you diversify is so that you DO NOT have everything tied to one area in order to PREVENT losing it all in one shot. its called not putting all your eggs in one basket, and really its a very elementary idea for those of us who are still sane. you see yk, stocks and bonds move OPPOSITE each other. in other words, if the stocks that youve "placed your bets" with are FALLING, the bonds that youve "placed your bets" with are RISING. get it? this happens when people are concerned about market performance, and prefer a "flight to safety". likewise with currency, corporate debt, foreign markets, etc, etc, etc, etc. if everything moved together, up together, and down together, then you might make a case for the possibility of everything crashing with one misplaced bet, because in fact one misplaced bet would mean theoretically that youve actually got ALL of your bets misplaced. understand? diversification prevents this from happening for we all know these investments or "bets" DO NOT move up and down together. (side note to all readers here: banks in general, such as the chase example yk is using, put a heavier weighting toward bonds rather than stocks with their derivative products, and bonds are at a 5 year high right now).

most of you assumed that my wager referred to some sort of stock market crash

as ive already shown in a previous post, you emphasized the market to begin with, and then backed off when you realized you werent being quite vauge enough to claim victory.

but my wager actually called for a collapse of the whole financial system and the dollar, or else war.

yes your bet was the collapse of the whole financial system, or the financial system being in a state of war. ill quote seeker here who said it best........

is the present...financial system in:
c) In a state of war? A financial market can't go to war, so this is a non-sequitor.

i realize at this point you are trying to backtrack, and claim that you actually MEANT to say the u.s. would be at war, which even then wouldnt be true.

There is however an official state of declared war.

um, actually, no. this statement is completely and entirely false. there is not state of declared war. the u.s. has not declared war on any other country, and no other country has declared war on us. there is a war on terrorism beginning, but there is also a war on drugs that is continuing, and neither would ever be considered an "official state of declared war".

yk, your ignorance in these matters is humorous. you are entirely delusional, and again ill repeat, you are transparent to all. you fool no one.

aa

18

Why the disaster will hurt the WTS in the long run

by Seeker in

jw
friends

jws have been excited about events last week.

their sensibilities have been fine-tuned to expect armageddon at any moment, and last week's events seem extreme enough to lead to one thing after another.. i think these events will hurt the wts in the long run.

consider the typical long-term jw.

dubla

..it may be not..

and it may not be either.