Posts by Damocles

10

Swine flu and the understanding of science.

by Spook in

i've gotten sick of responding to swine flu posts, so i'll say my peace here:.

pandemic is a word with a specific meaning.

words have meanings and it matters.

Damocles

Ahh conspiracies!

Some Mexican authorities are suggesting it was brought to Mexico by a Bangladeshi visiting a relative. Curiously, the errant Bangladeshi has gone missing. Eaten by the virus I suppose.

Personnally, I like blaming California. I like CA but it seems a good whipping boy from here in the east.

Hey lets start a rumor or conspiracy. Didn't Montezuma predict a devastating illness that would ravage the europeans in about 500 years? We were dubs, we ought to be able to figure this out and make it work.

Damocles

10

Swine flu and the understanding of science.

by Spook in

i've gotten sick of responding to swine flu posts, so i'll say my peace here:.

pandemic is a word with a specific meaning.

words have meanings and it matters.

Damocles

This looks like a nice place to deposit my 2 cents.

The danger of a catastrophic pandemic with a high death rate is a low probability but high impact event. For me, the situation at the moment is exactly like a hurricane warning a week before it is due to strike. Its a good time for prudent precautions but getting overly excited is not helpful.

Its good to learn how anti-virals work (they work best in the first 24 - 48 hours of getting the virus), the symptoms of the disease, to lay in a few food supplies in case we get told to stay home for a week or so (wine and scotch are food, trust me), to make plans for school or day care closing, etc. Just prudent, reasonable preparations and keep a weather eye on the situation.

Virus are tricky buggers. There is absolutely no forecasting how this ends up. It could be very minor or it could be very major, but it is just too soon to know. But the time for prudent preparation, for hurricanes and pandemics, is early not late.

Bet the dubs are shaking with excitement though. Its time for Aporkalypse! at least for the poor pigs in Egypt.

Damocles

10

Swine flu and the understanding of science.

by Spook in

i've gotten sick of responding to swine flu posts, so i'll say my peace here:.

pandemic is a word with a specific meaning.

words have meanings and it matters.

Damocles

Spook,

Well said and good try. Doubt it will take though.

I like the WHO definition of phases for pandemics. Very clear and concise.

I am appalled at the reporting on this disease. The doctors interviewed on CNN and the others must have gotten their degrees for $150 on the internet. The meaning of the WHO phases has really been mangled in the press.

IMO, the best site for good info is CIDRAP http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

Damocles

26

Do Americans feel a 'special relationship' with the UK?

by ThomasCovenant in

jw
friends

the wt society always made a big point about the anglo-american world power when i was growing up in the t. i don't know if they still do.

probably not.. couple this with the uk media very often going on about a special relationship between the two countries.

some journalists would often point out though that this may have been wishful thinking on the part of the smaller uk.. i was a fan of alistair cooke's 'letter from america' and he , being of an older uk birth background would also reinforce this impression i had that there was a difference between the bond between the us/uk that was different to other countries.. .

Damocles

Aligot,

Well said. And we can't forget the chinese and middle americans.

I am highly embarrased that I swallowed the JW stance on history. Thought I was a better amateur historian than that.

Damocles

26

Do Americans feel a 'special relationship' with the UK?

by ThomasCovenant in

jw
friends

the wt society always made a big point about the anglo-american world power when i was growing up in the t. i don't know if they still do.

probably not.. couple this with the uk media very often going on about a special relationship between the two countries.

some journalists would often point out though that this may have been wishful thinking on the part of the smaller uk.. i was a fan of alistair cooke's 'letter from america' and he , being of an older uk birth background would also reinforce this impression i had that there was a difference between the bond between the us/uk that was different to other countries.. .

Damocles

Its hard to generalize, some of us do some don't.

I like the french sense of humor and german efficiency.....and I had a whale of a good time in Bavaria.

I work for an English company and I feel a 'special' relationship with them. Probably not unlike the 'special' relationship of the Scots, Welsh and Irish to the English.

Damocles

60

Who here has just let the JW stuff go?. I NEED HELP GUYS!!!!!!!.................

by oompa in

jw
friends

....i am so frikkin obsessed about the jw lies and my newfound truths about them, and it is prob driving me crazy or causing depression.....if i wake up in the middle of the night, i never get back to sleep as my mind starts racing about jw crap and how it affects my marriage, and then how can i make this marriage work with her such a hardcore dub....i told my wife i now realize i am an abusive husband.....i must stop talking to her about the real truth!!

!..........it is killing her inside and we have had soooo many bad discussions that turn into arguments......on top of that she says she is now closer to jah and the org than at any other time in her life, that now that she has no positive direction from me, she relies totally on jehovah and prays to him more than ever..... we talked about separation, and that i was going to lose her over our religious differences........i feel so sorry for what i have put her through, and i know that if i can not really shut up with my ohsohelpful comments of truths about this truth she will leave me due to "spiritual endangerment".......and she said she is damm close to that happening.....i told her i knew it to and would so hate to lose her due to our religious differences.

at my recent shepherding call, they said to try and stop focusing on the negatives i have found in jw, and focus on the good things...and that is not a bad idea even if i never go back to meetings....there are good things about dubs....the efforts at ending racism and at least for me, some really good lifelong friends.......even their hope for the future was pretty good to me, even though it is a bunch of crap and i no longer believe the bible is gods word or inspired.....it does have some good suggestions for a happy life and ideas as to how to treat others........but so do just about every holy book of other faiths........ i had plans to start going to some meetings with my wife, but today, after a sleepless night i told her i just dont think i can do it, and just as she strongly believes it is the truth, i do not, and that i think the guys on the gb are not led by holy spirit cause if she will read the proclaimers book, she will see we have never gotten a single bible inerpretation of prophecy correct.......so she says "so what is there?

Damocles

Oompa,

As a long-time lurker, I have really enjoyed your posts and sense of humor. Its ironic, but JWs and particularly ex-JWs are noted for good humor, good grammar, and thoughtful opinions. Its one reason I like this site and one reason I originally joined the dubs.

In just 10 days, well over 880 people have viewed this thread and it kept increasing as I wrote this. A testament to how much most of us care about you, your plight and the similarities to our own. A bunch of us sympathize and empathize with you and wish you all the best.

To your original question, this may not be the best site to ask about who has let the JW thing go. If we had entirely, we wouldn't be on this site would we? On the other hand, we can help with some of the possibilities of what's on the other side.

The best analogy to your situation to my mind is a messy house. Not a couple of hours, lets fix it up place but a 20 cats pissing and shitting in the house and armies of cats and mice (rats) doing battle in the house place (true story of poor older aunt, fed the cats and mice the same). At first look, this is an impossible job and couldn't someone else clean this mess? Nope, its yours (or mine as the case was). So, where do you start 'at the begininng and go to the end'. It is a long, slogging job requiring little finesse and lots of endurance. I fear that may be the case with your religous convictions and the consequences to your marriage. Its a messy dirty job and you would like some assurance its worth the effort.

Well, that's hard to give. I've seen it both ways. Folks, like myself, who find the JW thing a stage of life with little impact on the present find the other side pretty pleasant. Sort of like growing up. The where and how had an impact but its only one of many factors in life. Some folks have never been able to leave it (being a JW) be. First, they view themselves as witnesses and then as not witnesses, but its still all about the dubs. JWs is the defining factor in their life. I have to say I have children on both sides of that divide.

I can say it is possible to put it aside, but doing so may require quite a few hard times. At the time of my divorce, I was racked with quilt and angst. Fear of the future. Fear of the consequences to me, my wife, my children. I have a different opinion now. My ex-wife is much happier without me. My children have dealt, to really good advantage to some and less so to others. But all the relationships are honest now, not cloaked in guilt and fear.

For me, I only wish I had done it (quit) sooner. I lost a decade to fear and taught my children that compromise for peace is better than standing for what you believe. Now I think, I feared a paper dragon.

So this is the key point. JWs keep folks in line with fear. It is incredibly refreshing and invigorating to live without that fear and guilt! Even if I lived under an overpass, it would be better to live without the fear and guilt layered on by those folks! It just is indescribably liberating..... for me. Will it be for you? Well, only one way to find out.

Best Wishes and Best Regards

Damocles

150

Article: The Atheist's Dilemma

by BurnTheShips in

campos: the atheist's dilemmaby paul camposwhy is stanley fish so much smarter than richard dawkins?

that question occurred to me last week, while attending a lecture at which fish, the well-known literary and legal theorist, did the thing he always does, which is to make the following point over and over again:.

"no believer will find his faith shaken by evidence that is evidence only in the light of assumptions he does not share and considers flatly wrong.".

Damocles

Hi Barefoot,

Sorry for the delay in responding. Its start of garden time here and I am busy outside.

You asked me the following questions:

What about the incredible fine-tuning of the universe and the amazing series of coincidences that make life, not only possible, but extremely pleasant? Do you regard this sort of 'evidence' as admissable? If not, what would you regard as admissable evidence for a designer? Have you read Michael Behe's challenges to evolutionary theory?

I am familiar with Prof Behe and his ideas but am not persuaded.

Probability is a difficult subject for most of us and its hard to wrap our minds around the way it works. Simple cause and effect is much more intuitive for us. The latest bank crisis is another testament to my mind of the struggles we humans have with probability. It certainly is hard for me and I struggle with the subject.

I think its useful to think of coincidences and probabilities from a personal perspective. What is the probability of my existence? On the one hand, I could view it as an absolutely incredible series of chance occurences going all the way back to early man - or Adam if you will. On that I would peg my probability of existence at near zero. Even given my parents being together, there was one egg and one sperm that combined to make me. Against maybe 300 eggs versus many billions of sperm. If I did the math, then my existence is nothing short of miraculous. That's one perspective and I could conclude that there must have been intent to my existence. (It IS all about me after all LOL)

Now what is the probability that someone like me would exist given that my parents got together with each other or even someone else. Likely in the 80% range since most people who married in the 50's had children. Certainly, there was intent but not for me specifically.

So what is the true probability of my existence? near zero or 80%...... Its 100%. I do exist.

Its a fundamental premise of probability that anything that occurred has a probability of one. We like to do experiments with dice or colored balls to try and get some help in predicting future events and that's the reason we look backward. Still, if the event occured its probability is now 1.

So the probability that the world is the way it is ... is 1. What is the probability that it would turn out this particular way looking forward from some arbitrary point in the past - very hard to predict but likely small given all the chance occurences. What is the probability it would turn out some what close to this world? Pretty high. Consequently, I don't think that arguments from coincidences are persuavsive.

To your main point though, what test or evidence might convince me of the existence of a designer?

First, I'd have to be convinced that its worth my time to test the subject. If there is a designer of you and me, what prevents him or her from introducing themselves. 'Hello, I am the first Cause and I made you.' That would be nice along with a little proof of the claim. If he or she is not interested in introducing themselves then I assume that they have a good reason or that there is no first cause.

Barring that, I would have to test that this is the best of all possible worlds. There's lots of talk of good design, lets get to the bad ones. Knees are a good, painful example of an atrocious design. What about the 98% or so of species that are currently extinct? Why do I live 80 years and my pets 10 or at most 20? What's with the cancer thing? First it helps us grow from 1 cell to billions, then it runs amok and kills us. Where's the sense in that? Why is one of my most sensitive organs (my testicles) outside the safety of my body? I have rued that design choice many a time. Finally, I think I know just a little bit about raising kids, not much but a little...just in time to never do it again. To summarize, the designer would have to explain all the flubs, not just the successes.

Its not so much that I am against the idea of a First Cause, a Designer. I just really don't know and while I am curious about beginnings, I'm skeptical that I will ever know much about it. But my not knowing doesn't have much of a down side and I live a happy and productive live without that knowledge.

The god of the bible is a whole other matter. He clearly is bogus. But I take it we are talking mostly about deism not christianity or some other religion.

Regards

Damocles

150

Article: The Atheist's Dilemma

by BurnTheShips in

campos: the atheist's dilemmaby paul camposwhy is stanley fish so much smarter than richard dawkins?

that question occurred to me last week, while attending a lecture at which fish, the well-known literary and legal theorist, did the thing he always does, which is to make the following point over and over again:.

"no believer will find his faith shaken by evidence that is evidence only in the light of assumptions he does not share and considers flatly wrong.".

Damocles

I'd like to weigh in on this subject but from a slightly different perspective.

First, a preamble. I am a scientist (physical chemist) and have been around scientists my whole adult life (I'm 58). I've known any number of physical and biological scientists, some of whom are relatively well known. I can say categorically that there is no correlation between being a scientist and believing in god. Some do some don't. I was a scientist as a dub and am a scientist now that I'm not.

The key to understanding the riddle of the dilemna IHO is that science is a process not a belief system. As a scientist, I observe nature, I formulate hypotheses, test the hypotheses, modify the hypothesis, do new tests...ad infinitum. So if you ask me what is 'proven' in science, I reply 'nothing, that's not how it works'. It is the method that counts not the beliefs. Its always a matter of probabilities.

With regard to god, at one time I believed and that was based on the evidence that I collected. I became a dub, tested the hypothesis over many years, and now I reject it (belief in god). Could that be modified? Certainly. What would modify it? I can think of quite a few things, but none have happened yet. Was my test of the hypothesis adequate? Hmmm good question, I'm not sure but it seems adequate enough for me at the moment. If I end up burning in Hell for eternity, I'll consider the case closed and reconsider my opinion.

So, would moon nanobots cause me to reconsider? Maybe, all depends on the details. Certainly, it would be new data requiring some adjustment to hypotheses and maybe some new tests.

When I start on a new research endeavor, the first thing I do is list the facts, the observations, what I truly know. Then I list the ideas, the beliefs I have about the observations. Finally, I try and list my assumptions, the unwritten ones that lie well below the surface. Once I've done that, I can begin to think about hypotheses and whether I have enough facts or whether I need to collect more before I make a hypothesis. Then I get to it. But it is absolutely imperative that I distinquish between the facts and my beliefs and frankly its always harder than I think it should be.

I've done that with god. I can state the following as the results of my tests of the hypotheses (IHO of course):

The probability that the god of the bible exists is vanishingly small.

The probability that the god of the jews, the Mormons, the gods of the Hindus or American Indians exist is vanishingly small (only ones I've studied much).

The probability that there is a god of unkown properties other than being the creator is unkown. But, belief or disbelief in such a being is of little practical effect on my life, so I am content to suspend judgment and get on with living until faced with new data. (Nanobots would be cool, though, especially if they could weed my gardens.)

129

Why I am an atheist

by Awakened at Gilead in

someone (a born-again exjw) on youtube asked me why i was an atheist... i crafted a brief response... it follows:.

1. religious reason: there is no proof for god outside of the bible.

once i dropped my belief in the bible, the judeo-christian concept of god fell apart like a house of cards.

Damocles

fjtoth,

Now on the third glass of scotch and no supper..so vinas veritas and even more sincere apologies for possible offense.

To be succinct, you seem to argue that because I come to a differenct conclusion from you then I must not have been as sincere as you, as diligent in studying as you or as receptive to the truth as you (you being the broad plural not the specific singular). It is possible that I have been as diligent in my studies, open to god's grace, and receptive to the holy spirit but have concluded differently than you do.

It is not that I am not unsympathetic to your argument. My daughter who will not speak to me makes the same argument. Dad, you were not sincere, you did not appy yourself, you were not humble and did not accept god's direction...and what is her proof? That I do not agree with her. In other words, she is so absolutely convinced that she is right, that the only way I can be wrong is that I refuse to see the clear evidence right before me. It is not allowed that I have done the studies, sincerely looked at the evidence...and disagreed. There must be another factor involved.

I suspect that is your argument. Unless I agree with you, I must not have done the correct investigation in the correct way. Sorry to disappoint, but in fact it is common for us each to take the same facts and come to very, very different conclusions. Sincerely and honestly.

129

Why I am an atheist

by Awakened at Gilead in

someone (a born-again exjw) on youtube asked me why i was an atheist... i crafted a brief response... it follows:.

1. religious reason: there is no proof for god outside of the bible.

once i dropped my belief in the bible, the judeo-christian concept of god fell apart like a house of cards.

Damocles

fjtoth,

I am on my second glass of scotch and it was a really miserable day at work, so I hope I don't offend. (Good news, I have a job, bad news, the job) and you seem a congenial person for such a conversation.

I read what John Loftus wrote about his experience and those of others who reject belief in God. Nowhere does he claim to have had a meaningful encounter with God or a relationship with him. Frequently he mentions his struggle with the God idea and his anger toward what he understands God to be. That's far from being the person who truly wants to know God and to understand why he thinks and acts as he does.

If we make up our minds as to what God ought to be, he becomes our own creation, not who and what he actually is.

I apologize, I don't know Loftus at all.

The matter of experience is hard for me. I can think and discuss maybe half a dozen times that I have laid myself open to god and asked for his help and direction. Whether that was genuine or not is hard for anyone else to judge, but in retrospect it seemed real to me. Afterwards, I have always felt good, refreshed and energized, yet it seems to me that the response from god has been laggardly. I can remember a particular time late at night in a small church in a wayward place at a time when doors needn't be locked. It was a profound experience. Yet, the specifics were lacking. Yes I felt enlightened, but to what end.

I became a JW on the basis of one such an emotional experience. The religion appeared to me to satisfy both the emotional relationship needs but the concomittant need for definitive action. In the end though it didn't satisfy.

For myself, the final analysis is related to the utility of the belief. This is an inherently pragmatic approach. I argue that I simply cannot prove the existence of god. I must decide my belief. That belief is directly related to my benefit from the belief and my judgement of the probabilities. If it is low probability of truth (i.e god exists) but high benefit, I may believe. If it is high probability but low benefit, I may believe. If it is low probability and low benefit, I likely will not believe. Such is my case after some 50 odd years thinking and operating on the subject. I judge the probability of the existence of the god of the bible as quite low. I judge the benefit of such belief as even lower, hence I do not believe in the god of the bible.

Am I correct? I surely don't know and frankly doubt whether I will know before I die. But in the end I judge that the belief or lack of belief has very little impact on my immediate life and life concerns.