From what appears is that Russell was believing his own crap but it's hard to say to what extend. Russell was running a business and it does appear that he placed his money in a printing business and kept it safe from Mrs. Russell (Reslight, if you have any Russell court transcripts please let me know) as it appeared his future interest in his marriage to Maria wasn't favorable. It's hard to be certain what he thought but these are just observations about Russell dealings. Russell like GB today talked about the nearness of the end but never had a problem of investing at the present time. His bank account may have been small but every possible need was covered by his charity - the watch tower. As 1914 was approaching, Russell seemed to make it sound that the end may not happen but that was just a possibility and that may be due to him realizing the nearness of the date and needing to extend the years of his business as his existence and fame was time limited just as wts is today thus they (gb) need to keep changing doctrines that may allow for them (gb) to exist longer without acknowledging being wrong. As 1914 approached Russell was getting more and more letters as to the concecrated going to heaven so he had to act, and started to make 1914 as a possibility but not necessarily the date. Looking at WT articles dealing with 1914 prior to 1914 it does seem that he was getting more and more vague or less confident of 1914 that he once was. Another difference back then was people were able to reject the chronology and it appears that people could have had a freedom to discuss ideas not like today where one cannot question GB or WTS outloud without a possibility of being DF. Here are some older quotes.
Wt 1909, Dec 15
While our faith and hopes would be equally clear and logical whether this age ends in October, 1914, or a century later, nevertheless our expectation that "Gentile Times" will conclude October, 1914, undoubtedly has a stimulating effect upon our hearts and influences all of life's interests and helps to "wean" us from earthly joys and ambitions and to set our affections on things above!
WT 1910 Oct 15
What may we expect by October, 1914, the date of the termination of Gentile times? Let us not speculate, but let us keep awake and mark the stately steppings of our present Lord amongst the affairs of mankind--leading onward to the inauguration of the glorious Kingdom of the Son of God
WT 1910 Dec 15
We admit, as we have always done, that "We walk by faith and not by sight--that our chronology is not indisputable --that our opinion of it is fallible--that it is not clear to us just how all of the "little flock" can pass into death so speedily! Nevertheless, we rejoice in faith and love and zeal. And this year's Report shows that the dear friends everywhere are of one mind and of one heart on the subject. They have accomplished this year exploits in the publishing of the Truth which put all other years in the shade in many particulars. The sentiment of all seems to accord with our own--that the chronology (and the prophetic times and seasons which so wonderfully interlock with it and seem to prove it) has brought great joy and refreshment, even if later on it should appear that we have not located the end of the Times of the Gentiles exactly. Their end is surely near, if not on October 1st, 1914, as we still believe.
WT 1911 Aug 1
in 2,520 years from B.C. 606--October, A.D. 1914, the close of the Gentile Times. If any be disposed to dispute the exactness of these figures we need have no quarrel, but simply say that any difference in the calculation must of necessity be but small--possibly one year, possibly twenty years--but in so long a period how trifling would be such a variation.
WT 1913 Nov 15
Another letter received inquired respecting the proper treatment to be given to a member of the Class who insisted on opposing the chronology and denouncing all faith in October, 1914, either as respects the gathering of the Church or the inauguration of the world's great Time of Trouble. Our reply may be applicable in other cases. It is to the effect that nobody should be specially encouraged in such an opposition; for a bad spirit is always objectionable, injurious. However, we should not denounce those who in a proper spirit express their dissent in respect to the date mentioned and what may be there expected; nor should we feel aggrieved toward them. We should recognize the individual rights of all, and treat everybody according to the Golden Rule. Nor should we feel at liberty to express
our views more dogmatically than we would think right for others to do in expressing their views.