We have already seen this transpire once before, complete with secret bunkers. :-) When Rutheford took over power he totally reformed Russell's Bible Students. For all of their reverence and devotion to Pastor Russell, the Bible Students were still quite independent and democratic in practice. Rutherford removed power from the local congregations and gradually consolidated in the Watchtower Society where he was "the Boss". This was everywhere from small things like voting shares to local leadership to bigger things like the role the Society played. Together with the changing doctrines that eschewed Russell's writings, the loss among the membership was huge. However, the minority that remained was uniquely zealous for the Watchtower Society and for Rutherford, this group of loyalists gave rise to the 8-million member, religion known as Jehovah's Witnesses today.
It is interesting to look at the local leadership in the days of Rutherford. At first Rutherford installed a Society appointed service director in each congregation to support the advertising campaigns that were now being pushed by the Watchtower as a principal work of the organization. The story was spun, remaining to this day, that the local elders were not being supportive of service, believing that it was beneath them. Eventually Rutherford directed that the local bodies of elders were to be disbanded and that local leadership would fall to the Society-man. Some congregations dropped out but those that remained were headed by someone fiercely loyal to the Society, its aims and objectives.
Now I look at today; take this recent matter of college. Elders are waking up to the not-so-subtle way the Governing Body is saying that if they or their children attend a college that they most likely will be deleted as elders. In the recent TMS it was pointed out that something to look for in whether one was qualified was if they were obedient to the Faithful & Discreet Slave, or if they did their own thing, thinking they knew better. Now this is amazing, the Organization has been experiencing a huge drought in having enough brothers qualified to serve as elders and ministerial servents, and yet they are instituting a new policy that could very well cull the ranks of existing leadership. What Rutherford had accomplished directly, the current GB is accomplishing through heavy-handed policies; it's a weeding out. The road to get there is different but at the end of the day the result will be whatever reduced leadership the congregation has will be fiercely loyal to the GB.
I don't know enough about how Bethel operates but I can't help but to wonder what is going on there. It used to be that if a young man entered Bethel they were expected to view it as a lifetime committed, a career. Now the story is that they should expect to stay no more than four years. There have been numerous layoffs, with "career" bethelites pushed out into the field. The Society is streamlining the business end of things and operating at a reduced staff. They are getting out of the city into the country. Look down the line and picture that at the end of the day, those that remain at Bethel past the four-year trial, past the downsizing, will be the crème de la crème of the Bethel family. The company men and women who best fall in line and support the current Governing Body.
Now further look at the Governing Body itself. World wide leadership was basically in the hands of one individual from the days of Rutherford to Knorr. Then you get into 1970s where the Governing Body is expanded considerably, rises to prominence, and takes over leadership from the President. This is also the time period where there was a general laxing of the hardline stance and a spirit of liberation. From that time you have seen where hardliners have begun to take over silencing moderate voices, who have died out. The few replacements that have been made are of individuals that best exemplify the current spirit of the Governing Body. Look at the size of the Governing Body and how it declines from upwards of 18 members in the early 80s to the current 7 members, which is the lowest it has been since the 60's, where the Governing Body was simply the Society Board of Directors. Even at the top you have a streamlining, a reduction in size, with the remaining being the most feverently devoted to the Organization.
On all levels of leadership you are seeing the same thing, a reduction in overall size and a consolidation in power among those most loyal to the Organization and obedient to the Governing Body. The question is will we see the same thing in the rank and file? I already think we are seeing attrition caused by a variety of factors, such as old and death, disenchantment over the delay in prophetic expectations, pursuit of education & career, depression and lack of care locally. What we may start to see is a loss caused by the growing hardline attitudes of the leadership working its way down. If only the most-zealous, rule-following Society men remain you can picture what this will look like on the congregation level.
Any way - those are my long, rambling thoughts - apologies for missed words, misspellings, and general bad grammar.