I dunno Gorby;
The effect is cumulative. Several things are coming in together. Look at the drop in Britain baptisms by between a fifth and a quarter. Aux pios down by a third. Look at that west country circuit the Searcher told us about - a cong. disbanded and 6 CoBE's changed with at least two of them off as elders in less than a year. The peak to peak figure has dropped already.
If the "high profile" CoBE elders are getting twitchy/tired/jumping ship then their fellow elders and congregations will surely wonder what's up.
This (2016 service year) could be the "what a let down" year from the hype of 2014 - remember that October 2014, 100th the anniversary of "the end of the gentile times" is the one that is included in this year's (2015 service year) reported statistics, so still a remnant of 2014 fervour spilled over into this 2015 service year.
Next year - if the org dares report it in the current format could be the world wide decrease year. If they don't report it then you can take it as (un) read that it was a decrease year!