I think they've pulled out all the stops to keep the numbers up. Remember the "loving provision" of 15 minute reporting in about 2003? That kept some of the oxygen tent dodgers in the numbers.
Also the trend for younger baptisms is obviously going to mean even younger unbaptised publishers starting.
The increasing lifespans by 3 or 4 years between 2000 and now in the developed world and by 6 or 7 years in poorer countries also means the death rate is lower which helps the borg overall numbers if not their ratio to population.
The borg have also given a lot of froth and bubble between 2013 and 2016 - new bible for English speakers in 2013; the 100 year anniversary 2014; jborg website and trolley/cartwork; Caleb and Sophia big screens at the conventions with JWvideos and a CLAM meeting for 2016 instead of school/service meeting.
It is all beginning to wear thin now.
The problem for them is that nothing is working to bring in new recruits that aren't mentally or emotionally disturbed. In fact the sell off of KH's, closing bethels, child abuse lawsuits and overlapping generations are unsettling to many and an increasing cause of apathy to others.
I believe that the downturn in the "west" will continue in the next yearbook; if the first drop in worldwide numbers since the late 1970's occurs this year I will not be surprised.