Yeah, but my assumption was that someone who "operated" within the past 30 years is likely still alive and thus presents a current danger.
I know but I think there is a differece between "140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations right now" and "140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations over a period of 30 years"
But I don't think it would lower my estimate by 90%
Maybe not but I believe it would be considerably lower since you are using the reference of a virtual haven for pedophiles (no mandatory reporting) and that will give you much higher number than the world average.
I really have no idea of what the real numbers would be.
EDIT: also, such "haven" would attract additional pedophiles.