Extrapolation of the Australia child abuse numbers

by sir82 43 Replies latest watchtower child-abuse

• 

  sir82

  (Let me know if anyone thinks my assumptions are way out of line, or if I've forgotten anything)
  

  Basic facts:
  

  The Australian Royal Commission has 1000+ documented cases of child abuse over 65 years. Current JW population in Australia is ~68,000. Of the 1000 cases, ~400 were disfellowshipped but ~200 were reinstated, so 800 abusers (80%) remained as part of the organization.

  A few assumptions:

  -- The proportion of child abusers among the JW population in Australia is roughly the same proportion worldwide

  -- Since the JW population in Australia was much smaller in 1950 compared to now, it is reasonable to assume that the vast majority of the 1000 cases occurred within the past 30 years. Let's be conservative and say 75% (I suspect the ratio is higher).
  

  -- A child abuser who has acted within the past 30 years is likely still alive. Given what we know of recidivism, he would still present a danger to the congregation.

  Given all that:

  -- Worldwide JW population is over 8,000,000.

  -- (1000 * .75) / 68,000 * 8,000,000 = 88,000 cases of child abuse, organization-wide, in the past 30 years

  -- Only 20% are disfellowshipped & stay out, so 88,000 * 0.8 = over 70,000 known child abusers who are active members of a JW congregation, worldwide.

  Let that sink in a moment.

  There are only 115,000 congregations worldwide.

  How many child abuse cases are reported to elders? How many of them follow procedures correctly and call the branch?
  

  Again, let's be conservative and say 1/2 of all abuse cases are reported to the elders. The actual ratio is likely much, much lower.

  So, 70,000 known abusers, + 70,000 abusers who have not yet been reported. 140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations.

  There is likely at least one child abuser "in good standing" per congregation, everywhere, all over the world.

  Lurkers: Think there aren't any child abusers in your congregation? Think again.

  Maybe you are lucky and there isn't. But if that is the case, maybe there are 2, 3, or more in the congregation that shares your Kingdom Hall.
  
• 

  C0ntr013r

  This is over a period of 30 years though, so that would be 140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations, over a longer period of time.

  This is also in regards to cases where reporting to the police was not mandatory, there are many places where it is mandatory now. This would lower the numbers since many of the abusers would have been caught by the legal system.

  I would guess on average a child abuser for every 5-10 congregations world wide regardless of standing in that congregation (since the 1006 documents where for all accusation regardless of standing in the congregation).

  It is just a guess though. Guessing the pedophile/congregation ratio atm in Australia would be hard enough, there is simply not enough data to extrapolate any good calculations for the entire world.
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  Mad Sweeney

  Was it 1006 victims or 1006 pedos? Many pedos have multiple victims.
• 

  Splash

  It was 1006 different abusers.

  These are the ones which are known, of course.
• 

  sir82

  This is over a period of 30 years though, so that would be 140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations, over a longer period of time.

  Yeah, but my assumption was that someone who "operated" within the past 30 years is likely still alive and thus presents a current danger.

  This is also in regards to cases where reporting to the police was not mandatory, there are many places where it is mandatory now. This would lower the numbers since many of the abusers would have been caught by the legal system.

  I did not consider that, but it is a good point. That may tend to lower my numbers somewhat.

  I would guess on average a child abuser for every 5-10 congregations world wide regardless of standing in that congregation

  But I don't think it would lower my estimate by 90%.
  
• 

  C0ntr013r

  Yeah, but my assumption was that someone who "operated" within the past 30 years is likely still alive and thus presents a current danger.

  I know but I think there is a differece between "140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations right now" and "140,000 JW child abusers among 115,000 congregations over a period of 30 years"

  But I don't think it would lower my estimate by 90%

  Maybe not but I believe it would be considerably lower since you are using the reference of a virtual haven for pedophiles (no mandatory reporting) and that will give you much higher number than the world average.

  I really have no idea of what the real numbers would be.

  EDIT: also, such "haven" would attract additional pedophiles.

  
  
• 

  sir82

  I really have no idea of what the real numbers would be.

  And neither do I , of course. But I still think my numbers are reasonable, and not off by orders of magnitude.

  On the one hand, I thought many of my assumptions were conservative, and on the other, you raise valid points.

  So if we use 140,000 as the "midpoint", maybe the actual number is somewhere in the 80,000 - 200,000 range.

  Even at the low end, if there are 2 or more congregations sharing a Kingdom Hall, that's at least one child abuser per Kingdom Hall.

  Regarding mandatory reporting: That is the case in many western countries, but what is the law in the countries of South America or Africa or Asia? Even many US states do not have mandatory reporting laws. There are more JWs in Central & South America than in the USA.
  

  
  
• 

  C0ntr013r

  Also, since this is over a period of 30 years I would guess that most of the victims at some point in there adult life told someone about the abuse. To say less than 50% of all abuse over a period of 30 years never reach the elders sounds unlikely. Remember that members are encouraged to report on each other to the elders.
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  C0ntr013r

  I might actually have to do some calculating myself, but I agree that it is a huge problem!
• 

  sir82

  Remember that members are encouraged to report on each other to the elders.

  Abusers forcefully coerce their victims to "never tell", often threatening violence against themselves or their family. Not to mention the shame and guilt that the organization places on victims, making them feel responsible & guilty for the abuse they suffered, making it less likely they would tell anyone else.
  

  That is much different than "tell the elders if you see your JW classmate smoking a cigarette".