Posts by C0ntr013r

175

How confident are you about various so called facts?

by slimboyfat in

no facts about the world are absolutely certain.

that being the case i wonder how others would rank amd rate their confidence in various factual statements about the world.

i am going to rate my confidence in ten items of "knowledge" as a percentage.

C0ntr013r

To me it looks like you use the same words but mean different things.

Unless you agree on the definition of: "sure/certainty" you cant discuss it.. At least not in any meaningful way.

Also, some people can have 0%/100% confidence in something. Others cant because they always take the possibility that they are wrong into the equation(no matter how small).

So to state that is it wrong to asses 100% certainty is incorrect, if it is a measure of perceived certainly and not probability. (why it is so important to define what the words mean in the context)

But it is also incorrect to say that you can have 100% confidence in something, since some people cant.

It is two fundamentally different perspectives.

This is my take on it anyhow.

175

How confident are you about various so called facts?

by slimboyfat in

no facts about the world are absolutely certain.

that being the case i wonder how others would rank amd rate their confidence in various factual statements about the world.

i am going to rate my confidence in ten items of "knowledge" as a percentage.

C0ntr013r

I don't believe in certainty...

1. The earth is a sphere rather than flat in shape.

99%

2. Global warming is a real phenomenon of serious concern that is caused by human activities.

50%

3. Life on Earth evolved its many forms through the process of natural selection.

90%

4. The gospels are based on a real apocalyptic preacher called Jesus who lived in first century Palestine.

70%

5. J F Rutherford was a drunk who cheated on his wife with various women.

40%

6. Smoking causes lung cancer.

95%

7. Men really walked on the moon.

90%

8. Consciousness survives death.

1%

9. Moses wrote the Pentateuch.

10%

10. Dragons exists.

1%

11. Homeopathy is effective beyond placebo.

3%

12. O J Simpson was innocent.

-%

13. Scotland will be an independent country within 20 years.

10%

14. There will be a nuclear war sometime in the 21st century.

30%

15. The New Testament originally contained the divine name.

50%

16. At least one of the presidents of the Watchtower was homosexual.

30%

17. The universe began in a Big Bang around 14 billion years ago.

90%

18. China is the country with the most people.

95%

50

My family has known I'm an apostate

by cognac in

jw
friends

i found out that my husband has not only gone to the elders, but has been going to members of my family about me over a period of a few years.

this piece of news is just so depressing.

i've been wondering how my family knew i didn't go and thats why so many of them have becoming more and more distant.

C0ntr013r

How ironic that the Jws say a marriage can't be fully functional without "a third party"; Jehovah(aka: JW.ORG)...

They say it is needed for a truly strong and happy marriage. It is why so many marriages in the world don't last...

(that is not true either, Jws divorce rates are just as high as any other denomination)

166

Mobile Hotspot - JWFACTS.COM - Assembly & Conventions

by thedepressedsoul in

here is an idea i tested.

works at both assemblies and conventions.

i have noticed at the last convention and at my last assembly that when i opened up my wifi setting, tons of hotspots came up for people tethering their tablets to their smart phones.

C0ntr013r

I like the idea!

Would be interesting to monitor the activity and see what things the Jws read on the "apostate" sites.

Apostate meeting in bathroom 1pm xD hilarious!

It might result in a bunch of elders going there and looking suspiciously at each other :P

The servants at "my" convention use what's app to communicate, so they will probably find out about these things fast.

72

Have you heard the one about "Back to the Future" Predicting 911??

by EndofMysteries in

when somebody posted this on fb, i was anxious to see how ridiculous it would be, probably worse then the gb prophecies, etc.

after watching the clip, i honestly don't know what to believe.

at the very least it's very entertaining and interesting.

C0ntr013r

I think this is a good example of deliberate data mining/lottery fallacy/cherry picking fallacy...

In a large set of data you can easily pick individual details to prove a certain point.

To be able to "foretell" 9/11 with the sample size of one movie is not likely, but if you look at all movies as a collective... The chance of finding one movie with all these connections is much higher.

Lottery Fallacy
The lottery fallacy is a misuse of statisics that generally argues that a particular phenomenon has such a low probability of happening that because it did happen, it cannot be by chance alone. This argument is often used by creationists in an attempt to argue that because the Earth’s conditions are perfect for life, the Earth must have been designed for us. Asking what is the probability that this particular phenomenon should occur? is asking the wrong question. The law of truly large numbers states that with a large enough sample size, any unlikely thing is likely to happen. A more meaningful question is what is the probability that any unlikely phenomenon should occur, given a large enough sample size?

9

You must be right Simon. I must be wrong.

by umbertoecho in

simon.

this is your forum.

for the rc have it all wrong.. i am wrong to follow the accurate guidance of these commissioners.

C0ntr013r

Was wondering the same thing, found it here:

http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5212164105175040/australia-artemis-legal-launches-inquiry-into-group-class-action-lawsuits-against-jehovahs-witnesses?page=1&size=20

Looks like a misunderstanding that escalated with lots of hurt feelings as a result :/

I did not read the whole thing so I might be wrong.

My advice: both of you can just take the high road, forgive and forget. It seems like such a petty thing to argue about. (please don't attack me for expressing this opinion :P)

Hope this can be resolved in a loving manner :)

35

Hey! Wanted to say Hi!

by Miss Worldly in

jw
friends

hey!

i've been hanging around her for a while.

this is the third attempt at my 'hello'.

C0ntr013r

Welcome aboard Miss Worldly! :)

34

Belief in God Can Be Turned Off Like a Light Switch

by cofty in

researchers in york used magnetic stimulation to target an area of the brain called the medial frontal cortex in a group of volunteers.

a control group received a sham treatment.. both groups were asked to think about death.

the group who experienced the magnetic energy reported 32.8% less belief in angels, god and heaven.. when faced with difficult challenges people often take refuge in ideology.

C0ntr013r

The fool is the one that hangs on to a superstition and calls it faith.

Is there a distinction? :P

34

Belief in God Can Be Turned Off Like a Light Switch

by cofty in

researchers in york used magnetic stimulation to target an area of the brain called the medial frontal cortex in a group of volunteers.

a control group received a sham treatment.. both groups were asked to think about death.

the group who experienced the magnetic energy reported 32.8% less belief in angels, god and heaven.. when faced with difficult challenges people often take refuge in ideology.

C0ntr013r

Sometimes missapplied, the quote in context:

"Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opium of the people"

34

Belief in God Can Be Turned Off Like a Light Switch

by cofty in

researchers in york used magnetic stimulation to target an area of the brain called the medial frontal cortex in a group of volunteers.

a control group received a sham treatment.. both groups were asked to think about death.

the group who experienced the magnetic energy reported 32.8% less belief in angels, god and heaven.. when faced with difficult challenges people often take refuge in ideology.

C0ntr013r

Interesting!

We who consider ourselves logical, rational thinkers should try this.

That way we can find out a lot of our biases and our ideological thinking that we are unaware of.

We humans like to think that we base our decisions and beliefs on rational thinking. But this is often not the case. We commonly resort to "lazy" thinking unconsciously. (cognitive shortcut that usually involve feelings instead of facts)