I'm still trying to figure out which excuse the US will use to attack Iran:
- Iran allegedly fires missile at US aircraft in "Iraqi" airspace.
- If the Russian's intel of the US attack date of April 6th is true, expect the Iranians to release the sailors within the next two days. This will be one less excuse to "free the hostages." Iran will say that the sailors "apologized" - which will be good enough for them, even though Britain didn't do it officially.
- An "Iranian" ship will allegedly fire on a US ship.
- The US finds and proves "beyond a doubt" that Iranian Revolutionary Guards were just fighting against US soldiers in Iraq.
Iran isn't doing anything to the US right now that warrants a full scale war with them. Developing nuclear technology is their right under the NPT. It doesn't matter what many feel in their "gut" about them deveolping a nuke to deliver on US soil or how many UNSC resolutions get passed at the behest of the US. The IAEA has found no evidence of nuclear weapons facilities. Deal with it.
Seeing that Iran is basically keeping to themselves right now(aside from the sailors in disputed waters), the only way the US could mount a "legal" attack on them would be to have one of the above scenarios happen. Of course, there are many other scenarios that could be played out, but the US public(and world) will need something far more convincing this time. The world will need to see "proof"(fabricated or not) of Iran attacking US forces. I can't believe the democrats stripped out of their latest bill a line that would have made it necessary for Bush to get approval from Congress before attacking Iran. This makes me wonder if we're just seeing a massive game of good cop/bad cop being played out in Washington.
The only way for Iran to change back to the dollar in oil trading is to have a US friendly regime set up. We've got two years to watch this happen.