Great thread discussions.
potleg, great analysis and thinking in your theory, however, I don't see a single charismatic person takeover happening. The reason I don't see it happening is because for the last 25-30 years they have 'reformed' the leadership status of the org. Gone are the 'President' or sole ruler as it were, but now a 'committee' GB, based on a 2/3 majority vote etc. They spent years to abolish the possibility of a rogue usurper to the 'throne' to take full control. They are a headless monster atm however, who really is leading the org and taking reign? Ole TJ wasn't called "The Boss" for shits and grins, it was a true title of his 'position'.
It would be awesome if some Bethel insider would give us the 'on the ground' gossip of who is the new head or who is vying for the position, but I haven't heard much.
Randy got it right, they are floundering atm, they are in crisis mode. Everything coming from the top is rehashed recirculated bullshit that has been coming out of there for the last 130 years. Keep everyone on high alert, keep everyone under high control, the rank and file are exhausted and are starting to look at other options, the turnover rate is just too high for growth.
Someone also brought out that there is a lot of growth in South America, I disagree. They just shut down or in the process of closing up all the branches in S.A. and moving them to Mexico for control/distribution, there is a movement within the S.A. JW community to speak out against shunning. Spain, France shut down their branches, moved shop to Germany, didn't they move another 2 to Germany as well? They are merging the Alaskan and Hawaii branches together, not sure where the hosting site will be out of those two, but nevertheless, another consolidation.
Another thing to consider is Japan, once lauded as a major growth region has been showing 0 to negative numbers. Jamaica branch has 27 workers! They've been downsizing for the last year and a half or so. The society is selling off real estate in Brooklyn to stay afloat, moving upstate to the 'compound'.
They are already tightening the grip. Look at the review notes from last month's Annual Meeting. Calling the older ones murmurers as the Isrealites! They are browing beating the flock! It is just the begining of what is coming. More hardline dogma. More locking down the so-so dedicated ones and keeping the zealots.
All of this will be pushed as in the name of Jehovah, the start of the Great Tribulation and persecution of Jah's people. How long will it last? I'm anticipating by 2012 to have another change happen, another 2 years later and another, the next 10 years will change the WTS drastically. In what way? I don't know, but I don't want to be in it!