I agree, most baptisms are most likely children of publishers who are encouraged/pressured to get their kids baptized.
It is inconsistant to try and compare the number of studies and pioneers now with, lets say, the number in the 70's. As was mentioned, pioneers now put in 70 hours per month instead of 90, aux pios put in 50 or at times 30 instead of 60 per month.
As for studies, we used to have to conduct a study with someone for an hour at least 3 times a month to be able to report the study.
Now, they report "door-step" studies of 10-15 minutes!
If held to the older standards, how many pioneers and studies would there be now? A lot less I'd say!
And if small children and 15 minute pubs were not included, how many publishers would there be?
Any increases actual taking place must be very small.