Hmm… well thought-out, and definitely worth considering.
They’ve allegedly had outside financial consultants come in and advise them, and if that’s actually the case, the recent mainstreaming attempts are almost certainly a result of that.
I wonder if said consultants essentially deduced what you just did, and spelled it out for them in a way they could grasp and accept.
The ultraconservative Old Guard wanted a fucking Army marching in lockstep, unified in thought and action against a hostile, doomed world.
But…
…maybe the moderates were able to genuinely grasp that a less draconian and punitive Fellowship (or at least, a more convincing appearance of one) has a better actual survival probability in said world.