Posts by Duderino

89

Iran vs Israel and the USA = WW III (Should we be worried?)

by Me Myself and I in

this particular bowl of soup has been bubbling for some time now, with various posturing and toing and froing.

looking at the media and the subsequent comments from israel regarding iran, it looks clear that something is going to happen soon, very soon..... with iran having the ears of both china and russia, israel having the us and of course we (uk) as the states poodle on the other side.

i wonder if this could be the beginning of the end?.

Duderino

McCain to call for airstrikes on Libya.

you mean syria all that help we gave the rebels in libya worked out great didnt it they sure apreciate it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXZmakPif2w

41

Who created God

by d in

jw
friends

i am atheist now.

but when i was a jw.

i used to wonder since everything was created by god.

Duderino

41

Who created God

by d in

jw
friends

i am atheist now.

but when i was a jw.

i used to wonder since everything was created by god.

Duderino

People made god up so they could explain things but now we have something better it is called SCIENCE

55

I Want Your Prediction: Who Will Be The Republican Nominee & Will He Beat Obama?

by minimus in

jw
friends

i think romney will be the guy but i have my doubts that he will beat obama because no one seems to be in the lineup that anyone wants to embrace..

Duderino

Santorum is going to clean obamas clock

64

California Most Hated State, According To Recent Poll

by Bangalore in

jw
friends

california most hated state, according to recent poll .. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/23/california-most-hated-state_n_1297843.html?ref=mostpopular.

bangalore.

.

Duderino

HOW POPULAR IS YOUR STATE?

Public Policy Polling has run an interesting series of surveys, asking Americans whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of various states. The question strikes me as odd; it makes sense to have a favorable or unfavorable view of a state’s government, but of the state itself? I would say that I have a favorable opinion of all of the states.

As you might expect, the results show strong partisan trends: Republicans love Texas and dislike California, while Democrats love California and hate Texas. On the other hand, everyone likes Hawaii. The five most popular states, with their favorable/unfavorable numbers in parenthesis, are Hawaii (54/10), Colorado (44/9), Tennessee (48/14), South Dakota (42/8) and Virginia (45/13). The least popular include California (27/44), Illinois (19/29) and New Jersey (25/32).

There are some anomalies. Wisconsin (40/17) is significantly more popular than Minnesota (27/17). What is the difference? The only explanation I can think of is that Wisconsin’s sports teams have been better than Minnesota’s in recent years. Another odd fact: both liberals and conservatives like Minnesota, but moderates disapprove of the state. What could possibly be going on there?

There are a lot of interesting comparisons to be drawn, but one concerns me a little. The mountain states are almost universally popular. Colorado is the second most favorably viewed state, but most of the other mountain states are not far behind, e.g., Montana (39/7) and Idaho (30/11). The anomaly is Utah. At 24/27, it is the fifth-least favorably perceived state.

How can that be? If you like Colorado, Idaho and Montana, why would you dislike Utah? I can’t think of any reason other than anti-Mormon bias. This is borne out by the fact that liberals and Democrats, who are most prone to ethnic and religious bigotry, are the ones who actively dislike Utah. But the numbers are depressed across the board, compared with other mountain states: Republicans only approve of Utah by a 30/23 margin, Independents are the same at 29/23, and Democrats disapprove of the state by 14/32. Moreover, while the very liberal have an unfavorable opinion of Utah (21/43), so do the very conservative (25/32). The very conservative, on the other hand, love Idaho (36/6).

One wonders whether these numbers explain some of the dynamics of the current GOP primary season, and whether they suggest a lingering anti-LDS prejudice that could be a problem for Mitt Romney, if he is the Republican nominee, in November.

6

Atheist assaulted by Muslim getting hundreds of death threats.

by Duderino in

hundreds of threats for assault victim in case dismissed by quran-minded judge.

the pennsylvania man assaulted in october by a muslim who was offended by his halloween parade zombie muhammad costume said he has received hundreds of death threats after a judge dismissed his attackers criminal charges.. ernest perce told the daily caller that talaag elbayomy, a muslim man, grabbed me, choked me from the back, and spun me around to try to get my sign off that was wrapped around my neck.. elbayomy reportedly admitted to a police officer, sgt.

bryan curtis, that he attempted to rip perces fake beard off, remove his muhammed of islam sign and choke him.. perce said he believes elbayomy thought it was illegal in the united states to insult muhammad, as it is in countries whose governments are based on sharia law.. last week judge mark martin sided with perces attacker, saying in open court that perce would be put to death in muslim societies for showing disrespect to muhammad.

Duderino

Hundreds of threats for assault victim in case dismissed by Quran-minded judge

The Pennsylvania man assaulted in October by a Muslim who was offended by his Halloween parade “Zombie Muhammad” costume said he has received hundreds of death threats after a judge dismissed his attacker’s criminal charges.

Ernest Perce told The Daily Caller that Talaag Elbayomy, a Muslim man, “grabbed me, choked me from the back, and spun me around to try to get my sign off that was wrapped around my neck.”

Elbayomy reportedly admitted to a police officer, Sgt. Bryan Curtis, that he attempted to rip Perce’s fake beard off, remove his “Muhammed of Islam” sign and choke him.

Perce said he believes Elbayomy thought it was illegal in the United States to insult Muhammad, as it is in countries whose governments are based on Sharia law.

Last week Judge Mark Martin sided with Perce’s attacker, saying in open court that Perce would be put to death in Muslim societies for showing disrespect to Muhammad. The judge dismissed the charges against Elbayomy.

“You’re way outside your boundaries of First Amendment rights,” the judge said during the trial.

“Martin’s decision effectively says that Muslims do not have to learn to accept blasphemy against their religion without violence.” Pence told TheDC. “Yet when you are a citizen of the USA, you accept our Constitution. Free speech is our foundation.” (RELATED: Judge dismisses charges against Muslim man who attacked atheist dress as ‘Zombie Muhammad’)

http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/26/hundreds-of-threats-for-assault-victim-in-case-dismissed-by-quran-minded-judge/

89

+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game

by designs in

will it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..

Duderino

How Do Gas Prices Increase?

Every four years or so, election years of 2008 and 2012, gas prices spike up, and all the talking heads give their spin on why this happens. The left blame speculators, the right blames lack of supply and the truth gets lost in useless arguments. What ends up happening is people receive misinformation about economics.

So what are the facts?

Prices are determined by supply and demand. That is the beginning but there are other factors, “independent” variables, which can affect supply and demand.
The “independent” variables for demand are;

1. Income. If a good or service is “normal” people want more of it when they make more money, demand will increase. If it is inferior, they want less. People generally buy less fast food when their incomes rise.
The real disposable personal income has dropped from $32,814 from when Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 to $32,458 today. A decrease of 1.1%. So if gas prices were $1.84 a gallon when Obama was inaugurated we would expect them to be about $1.82 all things being equal.

2. Price of related goods. Unfortunately with the exception of the Chevy Volt there are no substitutes for gas during this time frame, 2009 to today.
We subsidize farmers to grow corn for ethanol, driving up food prices, while imposing tariffs on cheap, $2.00 a gallon Brazilian bio-fuel. If Washington DC eliminated the tariffs on the $2.00 Brazilian bio-fuel we could lower the cost of both fuel and food at the same time. Corn farmers would be priced out of the ethanol market and would have to substitute back to food production, but with the current crop of corrupt politicians this will never happen.

3. Taste. This variable has not changed significantly since 2009. People prefer cars to bikes and scooters.

4. Population and demographics. The population has increased from 306,208,000 to 313,020, or a 2.22% increase. Using our baseline of $1.84 for gas the price today should be about $1.88 a gallon.

5. Expected future prices. This is the most controversial of the five. Nancy Pelosi refers to this variable as “speculators” and she is correct. If consumers expect higher prices they will, if possible, consumer more today. They are speculators forecasting into the future. There is nothing Nancy, or the federal government can do about speculation. It’s like legislating against cow flatulence. The only way to stop it is to kill a bunch of cows.

Also playing into expected future prices is world politics. If Saudi Arabia does not like the Obama Administration they can cut back on oil production, or threaten to cut back, and prices will increase.

If Israel does not want to see the Obama Administration re-elected they can pick a fight with Iran, or pretend to be picking a fight with Iran.
If Iran is suffering from inflation and desperately needs higher oil prices, and their number one export is crude oil, they might choose to play along with Israel in the mutually beneficial game of war chicken, hoping one or the other will back down at the last minute.

While the tensions between the two are high they both enjoy the desired results, bad publicity for the Obama Administration, more revenue for Iran. As long as the game does not go into a actual “hot” war both win. This is sometimes referred to as a Nash Equilibrium and/or dominate strategy.
The “independent” variables for supply are;

1. Price of inputs. This would not be the end product, oil, but the cost associated with producing oil. Workers wages, drilling equipment, leasing land, and so forth.

For this example we will assume the cost is directly translated into a price increase. Of course in the “real” world there would be a lot of mitigating circumstances, such as the elasticity of demand, inelasticity, and other factors. But here we will keep it simple and assume there is a direct, one to one, correlation between these variables.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased from 211.962 (1982-84 dollars= 100 MSA) to 227.505, a 7.3% increase or translated to $1.97 for a gallon of gas. The Producer Price Index has increased 17.1% or translated to $2.15 a gallon.+

2. Technological change. For petroleum production there has not been a dramatic change since 2009 that I am aware of. Assume this has had a negligible affect on the price.

3. Price of substitutes in production. Again, the only viable substitute is Brazilian bio-fuel, which is not allowed to compete because of tariffs.

4. Number of firms in the marketplace. There has not been substantial entry or exit since 2009.

5 Expected future prices. Suppliers “speculate” the same as consumers do. And this is where Obama plays a role in gas prices TODAY. If oil producers see the Obama Administration doing everything in its power to suppress supply, no new leases, regulations, more taxes, then it will have a effect on the price TODAY.

Why would it not?

Does Nancy Pelosi want to outlaw rational thought? Speculators are doing the best they can to deal with reality. If the President of the United States is hostile to oil production and consumption why would this not be reflected in the price of gasoline?

On the flip side if the president announced 100% support for the oil industry, drilling on a first come, first serve basis, prices would drop TODAY based on future expected increase in supply.

World supply has increased 2.2% from 2009 to 2010, 80,278 thousands of barrels daily to 82,095. Demand has increased from 84,714 to 87,382, 3.1%. The biggest increase in consumption was 5.3%, from the Asian Pacific countries including China and India.

The discrepancy between the amount of oil produced and/or imported and the amount consumed and/or exported is due to the omission of stock changes, refinery gains, and other complicating factors.

So based on increased consumption and the inelasticity of demand for crude oil, -0.06, translated, for every 10% increase in price consumers consume 0.6% less of the product, we can estimate that the price would increase to roughly $2.02 a gallon taking into account also the inelastic supply of oil production. Since I only have 2010 data let’s add on another 18 cents and make the price $2.20 per gallon.

From the previous data we know that all things being equal the price of gas should be about, in a worse case scenario, say about $2.50 a gallon. An educated guess, nothing more than that. Not pleasant but nowhere near the $3.70 a gallon today that we pay.

So what happened?

Now let’s put together a simple model.

If we have 100 gallons of gas, 100 customers, and $100 dollars split 100 ways consumers will buy a gallon of gas for $1 a gallon.

Simple.

That is supply and demand. If there is more supply, 200 gallons of gas, the price drops to 50 cents a gallon. If the supply is 50 gallons the price will increase to $2.00 a gallon. Notice that price acts as a rationing device, everyone gets what they need, and what is available, and not what they want.

If the number of dollars increased to $200 the price will go up to $2.00 a gallon if the supply remains stable at 100 gallons.
Did you get that?

One of the big factors that is overlooked by the talking head “economist” is the relationship between printing dollars, the Federal Reserve, and inflation.

Simply put all that Obama Administration spending has to come from three sources;

1. Taxes. Tax receipts as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 2009 have been 15.1%, 15.1%, and 15.4% of the GDP. Historically this percent has been around 18%. Spending has increased to 25.2%, 24.1%, and 24.1% of the GDP. This is important as will be explained.

2. Borrowing. This is not necessarily inflationary. Remember when you borrow from person x, person x forgoes consumption, but must be paid back in interest.

3. Printing money. Extremely inflationary. Deadly. Something to be avoided at all cost. Some economist call it monetizing the debt, others counterfeiting, other increased “liquidity.” It all depends on your perspective. From Main Street it simply means Wall Street, Washington DC, the elites, get the use of printed cash first, and Main Street pays for it in the form of inflation. The elites get the sugar and we get the you know what.
So what is the record of the Federal Reserve and the Obama Administration for printing money?

Federal debt held by the Federal Reserve for January 2009 was $492.3 billion and is currently $1.6647 trillion, a 238% increase.
Since the September 2008, before the TARP bailouts, the monetary base has increased from $886 billion to $2.7 trillion, a 206% increase.
Gold is up 82% since 2009 and many economists’ think that it is undervalued based on the inflationist policies of the Federal Reserve.

The 800 pound elephant in the room no one wants to talk about is federal spending and the inflationary policies of the Federal Reserve. Politicians do not want to talk about this, Republicans and Democrats, because the smart ones know this is a hidden tax on all Americans, poor, rich, white, black, that for most is invisible.

When the price of eggs goes up from 99 cents to $1.49, to $1.99 does anyone really notice?

Does anyone make the connection between the Obama Administration spending too much money and paying more for eggs?

No, but they should.

Jimmy Carter learned that big inflation numbers could cost him the election and the CPI was changed in July 1980 to deemphasize food and energy, the items that have the lowest “inelastic” numbers, or more simply things people need and are willing to buy at almost any price in the short term. Today the official “core” inflation rate is 2.9%.
I will submit to you that the biggest factor in the increase in gas prices is the Federal Reserve and the Obama Administrations reckless spending policies, followed by increase demand in the Pacific Rim countries, then global political tensions, and finally the Obama Administrations obstructionist energy policies designed to restrict supply from Canada and the United States, in that order.

The lesson for the working poor and the poor on government assistance is there is no free lunch. When the government spends too much money, you pay for it in lost jobs, lower wages, and inflation.
Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.

http://usa-wethepeople.com/2012/02/how-do-gas-prices-increase/

89

+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game

by designs in

will it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..

Duderino

Hopefully this time it will ween the US off its horrible addiction to oil.

Canada 71.009 bbl/day per 1,000 people

US 68.672 bbl/day per 1,000 people

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con_percap-energy-oil-consumption-per-capita

Canada too?

89