Gargamel

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Posts by Gargamel

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  31

  Brexit...

  by The Rebel in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the london stock exchange up, every share index up, the pound up against the dollar.

  where is the fire and brimstone?.

  the rebel..

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  Gargamel

  • £227bn UK exports to EU

  • £288bn UK imports from EU

    
    

    I'm wondering how much of that export number is for financial services, because they are discussing moving that away from the UK.
    
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  31

  Brexit...

  by The Rebel in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the london stock exchange up, every share index up, the pound up against the dollar.

  where is the fire and brimstone?.

  the rebel..

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  Gargamel

  "We can now spend that £166 million plus the rest as we want"

  
  Indeed, 250 billion (potentially) can be printed to shore up the markets and the currency. That's about 31 years worth of net EU contributions. I suspect that the NHS is at the back of the queue.
  
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  31

  Brexit...

  by The Rebel in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the london stock exchange up, every share index up, the pound up against the dollar.

  where is the fire and brimstone?.

  the rebel..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Gargamel

  Slidin Fast. IMO there was only a referendum so that Cameron could bolster his position in his party - and he thought a 'remain' vote was a foregone conclusion.

  Since promising the referendum though, things have changed. The refugee problem turned into a crisis and some parts of the media focussed on the fact that someone migrating to continental Europe could come to Britain under the 'free movement' policy. Although Turkey isn't an EU nation, there was also a lot of attention on what might happen if Turkey joined. A common theme was about 70 million Turks could be heading for Britain - as if an entire population would want to do that.

  Immigration was the main issue I'm sure, though many kept their heads down for fear of being accused of racism. Expressing concerns about immigration levels is not racism. Unfortunately, racist factions do use it as a flag of convenience.
  
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  31

  Brexit...

  by The Rebel in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the london stock exchange up, every share index up, the pound up against the dollar.

  where is the fire and brimstone?.

  the rebel..

  1. 
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  3. 
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  Gargamel

  Harold Wilson once said, "A week is a long time in politics." Ha ha. He wasn't kidding.
  
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  31

  Brexit...

  by The Rebel in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the london stock exchange up, every share index up, the pound up against the dollar.

  where is the fire and brimstone?.

  the rebel..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Gargamel

  What if PM Cameron decides not to quit ?

  
  

  Well he better make that decision pretty quickly. The election for the new leader has been called, and the deadline for contestants to declare is tomorrow (Thursday 30/6). So far, he hasn't entered the race - and won't, I'm sure.
  
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  31

  Brexit...

  by The Rebel in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the london stock exchange up, every share index up, the pound up against the dollar.

  where is the fire and brimstone?.

  the rebel..

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Gargamel

  As others have said, markets normally overeact at first, then find some balance at a new level. There will be more downward shocks yet though, and the worst of these ought be in the UK as the old alliances unravel. The pending tax rises will put pressure on inflation as workers clamour for pay rises to compensate the higher rates. Spending cuts will hurt the most vulnerable, because Tory bastards are good at that. Although they are edging downwards at the moment, at some point interest rates will start climbing in order to shore up the £ and attract investment - the rate rises may also be needed to curb any inflationary trend caused by the QE (money printing) and workers forcing pay rises. It does look pretty bleak for the next few years. Remember, the UK economy is more vulnerable because of the higher level of mortgage payers (renting is less popular here than in many countries), so even a small shift upwards has people examining where they can cut their spending. Furthermore, many small businesses are part-funded by people borrowing on property equity. If property values start decreasing, as looks a fair bet, there will be less finance available for business start-ups and expansions. Then, the banks have taken a big hit recently. They will probably want to recoup that by imposing harsher lending criteria and in many cases, not lend at all.

  The outlook appears bleaker than they're letting on. After a decade, the nation will generally be a bit poorer materially. Hopefully, some old values will re-surface rather than all the me me me legacy from the Thatcher years.
  
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  20

  Dodgy poetry

  by Gargamel in

  1. social
  2. entertainment

  it is a stretch to call my dodgy poetry 'entertainment' but i wasn't sure where else to put it.. .

  self-fulfilling prophecy.

  precipitation.

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  Gargamel

  The man in the dock

  was picking his nose like fury,

  rolled it into little balls

  and flicked it at the jury.
  
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  5

  Will the Brexit Trigger ever be pulled?

  by Slidin Fast in

  1. social
  2. current

  since david cameron has bowed out, his successor is not going to pull the article 50 trigger any time soon.

  we don’t even have a successor yet.. bojo looked sheepish and chastened at having won the leave vote, i don’t think he really believed he would win.

  he was at best flying a flag of convenience in heading up the brexit camp, was his heart really in it?.

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  Gargamel

  "Eh?...just about everyone says the public made their choice and it will be respected including David Cameron.

  Article 50 will be triggered, it is democracy.

  We just don't know who and when."

  
  

  But there's the rub. Triggering it could make the current meltdown look like a pop-gun. I'm not so sure who would want that legacy.

  Britain and the EU are currently playing a game of brinkmanship. Although the uncertainties are bad for the UK, they are bad for Europe too - and other countries. It's not good for it to rumble on, but it's difficult to see an alternative.
  
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  5

  Will the Brexit Trigger ever be pulled?

  by Slidin Fast in

  1. social
  2. current

  since david cameron has bowed out, his successor is not going to pull the article 50 trigger any time soon.

  we don’t even have a successor yet.. bojo looked sheepish and chastened at having won the leave vote, i don’t think he really believed he would win.

  he was at best flying a flag of convenience in heading up the brexit camp, was his heart really in it?.

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  Gargamel

  In spite of the public posturing, I reckon that people are doing a lot of talking behind the scenes about how to wriggle out of Brexit.

  There will be scapegoats - those who are not able to save their arses and their faces at the same time - the ones regarded as more expendable.

  My greatest concern is that as the politicians fudge, a new champion of the extreme right will emerge (Farage?). He would probably trigger Article 50 but the new isolation wouldn't be the Promised Land, it would more likely be a slow descent into pre-war Germany.
  
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  41

  One Thing I Don't Get About Brexit

  by JW_Rogue in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  how did such a weighty decision get put directly in the hands on the average citizen?

  and with only a simple majority required?

  in the usa the biggest thing that people vote on directly is city building projects or infrastructure.

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  Gargamel

  :) I know. Before polling day, everyone must have an IQ test. Whatever a person's score would be the number of points his/her vote would be worth. Not only would this ensure intelligent government, it would also be a good incentive to subsidise education for people who are more likely to vote for the government.

  It would save a lot of salamanders too.