We need to put in perspective the decrease from the 2020 report. It was 0.6%
Here is the thing. First the decline depends on the children of existing Jdubs, because the only people getting baptized are the kids. Now, we know that more and more kids are opting not to join, so we know that over a longer period of time, the decline will accentuate -- no doubt about it.
Another thing is that unfortunately we have to rely on the Org's numbers to see this, and we know the Org hates showing anything negative. So if the numbers show 0.6% decline, this likely means a lot more considering the creative numbers massaging that the Org does. If the numbers become too bad, I suspect the Org will stop reporting altogether under some BS reason.
I suspect the Zoom thing is bad for the Org. The social connection is the one thing holding the house of cards together and given enough time, Zoom won't cut it anymore. The Org will need to resume in person meetings and if they don't, this will spell disaster for them.