Big Dog, your two suggested scenarios suggest that they go out with a bang. If they do go down, it may be more with a whimper. It may collapse under its own weight from the internal pressure of paying out all the CSA settlements. Early indications are that they may be trying to look more like a mainstream denomination.
The Worldwide Church of God went mainstream in the aftermath of Armstrong's death. But many groups splintered off, trying to adhere to the old ways and doctrines. I've recently noticed some obnoxiously aggressive anti mainstream Christianity ads by the UCG on YouTube lately. Even in the event of a complete meltdown, some faithful JWs will probably find some way to keep the torch burning.
I'm just grateful that the WT never preached a doctrine of arming themselves against Armageddon, David Koresh style!