Posts by shepherdless

192

Question for SBF

by Fisherman in

slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

- this thread is your if you want it..

shepherdless

Its always made its money selling hope and dreams of panda petting paradise to people. Books were just the vehicle to do that.

For most of its history, it made the bulk of its money selling magazines (and in the early days, books) to members of the public, not so much its own members. I think one of the Studies in The Scriptures books was the third highest selling book of all time, at one stage long ago (the bible holding the no 1 spot).

Hell most religions have sold nothing since their inception and have done very well.

Other religions tithe. If you count elders as clergy, Watchtower has a much higher ratio of clergy to adherents than other religions. Other religions do have businesses. SDA has food companies, nursing homes, a University, and goodness knows what else. Catholics have huge property portfolios, schools, hospitals, hospices etc. Other religions are far less micromanaging. Watchtower has to come up with a new "church" service twice a week, whereas Catholics, for example, give the identical church service every 3 years. And to top it off, many Christian religions are starting to struggle.

192

Question for SBF

by Fisherman in

slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital.

can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from kings county and settled in warwick?

- this thread is your if you want it..

shepherdless

I am mostly in agreement with sbf on this, except I do not think they are close to a financial collapse as yet. Limited financial info, such as the UK accounts, suggest (in the U.K. at least) there are still investments being held by the Borg, although these have decreased. Further, I doubt that the Borg has significant external debt, and I haven't seen any evidence otherwise. Most sudden and outwardly unexpected financial collapses (but not all) involve a significant amount of external debt.

I suspect they are making losses, and this is using up their reserves, but there is a while to go, yet.

One question I don't think anyone has addressed in detail, is what would a "financial collapse" look like. For a religious institution with no significant debt, there might be little to see. There might not be any sudden default. I would have thought it would be more of the same as we see now; more asset sales and bethel layoffs, and only very core activities continuing. Not an actual collapse; more of a "financial fade".

It is not as if JWs are going to wake up one morning and find they have been merged with, eg, the Mormons. I think the average JW won't notice much change, in a "financial fade", apart from less micromanaging from Borg Central. I think it would mostly affect bethelites and various others feeding off the teat of the Borg. The GB might get a shakeup, or even replaced, and many senior managers will go, but the Borg would probably continue on, with whatever donation income is available.

8

Coping With Parents' Becoming Jehovah's Witnesses

by DNCall in

my sister recently wrote a short piece on the impact of our parents' becoming jehovah's witnesses in the 1950s.

she was a teenager at the time.

what is so striking and disturbing is that the same predicament faces so many teenagers to this day.

shepherdless

Awesome, and sad at the same time. I admire your sister's strength of character, in adversity.

5

Do you have a dumb politician like Sara Hansen Young in your country?

by barry in

jw
friends

we have one in australia and there is even a song about her.

i would like to know if you have someone like this among your politicians.https://youtu.be/bdwxpwl89sk.

shepherdless

Perhaps a bit of background for others. This young Australian Greens senator (in my view) comes across like an angry left wing Uni student. She is a little out of place, in a party that seems to be trying to become more mainstream. She used to be her party's spokesperson on all matters relating to immigration and boat people, which was an intense political issue. Back then, the Greens were the only significant party that was advocating letting all boat people arrive, and even rescuing them in their attempts.

About 3 or 4 years ago, there was a Senate committee where the military and the customs and border protection department were being grilled. Her questions as a senator revealed that she thought the fictional tv series, Sea Patrol, was some sort of real life reality show.

In relation to the "she only got 200 primary votes", it should be pointed out that these days, there are very few primary votes cast for senators. When voting for the senate, Australians can either number all the available candidates in order (from one to about 100) or simply vote "above the line" which means voting for a party and having preferences distributed as directed by that party. Most people can't be bothered and just vote "above the line".

33

New "Annointed" Brother In My Old Hall...

by pale.emperor in

i've only just stopped laughing.. in my old hall there's a brother who's now claiming to be of the anointed.. he's 28.. i do wonder if he's doing this for attention, if he's awake and messing with them, or if he really is that deluded.

when i was in he was an ms. which surprised even me because only a year earlier than that he was "a bit of a lad", is rubbish at talks and relies on his elder uncle to get him out of trouble all the time.. i guess this now means he's get his pick of jw sisters.

he's been after the same one as the rest of his peers since 2014..

shepherdless

I was thinking that, if circumstances force me to actually become a JW, I might as well become an anointed one.

34

Thinking about the end of the Watchtower

by JeffT in

jw
friends

first, a word about the watchtower’s financial position: nobody (outside the watchtower organization) knows.

the wtbs is not required to disclose its finances, and doesn’t.

we can speculate, but that is all we are doing.

shepherdless

How many religions with over one million members have collapsed in the last 100 years?

None have collapsed completely. Most Christian religions of that size or above have shrunk.

The best 2 examples of a significant Christian religion going to near collapse in relatively recent times are Worldwide Church of God (now under a new name) and the Christian Scientists (also known as the First Church of Christ, Scientist, and not to be confused with Scientology)

The Worldwide Church of God had about 145,000 members at one stage. It has less than a third of that now. They lost many adherents after they abandoned many of their more radical doctrines. That was a mistake the Borg would have taken note of.

The Christian Scientists for much of their history were larger than JWism. They had about 270,000 adherents in USA in 1936. In an eerie similarity to what may happen to the Borg, the Christian Scientists tried to become something of a multimedia organisation, producing the Christian Science Monitor, some television news programs, some journals, and a 24 hour news channel. It nearly went broke in the process.

34

Thinking about the end of the Watchtower

by JeffT in

jw
friends

first, a word about the watchtower’s financial position: nobody (outside the watchtower organization) knows.

the wtbs is not required to disclose its finances, and doesn’t.

we can speculate, but that is all we are doing.

shepherdless

This topic is something I have been thinking about for a while.

I think that should something major happen to the Society we will see a wave of depression, anxiety and suicide the likes of which we’ve never seen.

I am sure it will be bad, but I doubt there will be large numbers of suicides. I think it will be similar to post-1975. A lot will leave and a lot will find some other reason to continue to believe. Another historical guide is the "Great Disappointment" of 1844. After the Great Disappointment, instead of disbanding, Millerites went on to form the Adventist churches.

I expect that most Witnesses will eventually (or sooner) find somebody to tell them what to do. It would not be difficult for somebody (perhaps even the current governing body) to set up a new religion that looks very much like the old one. We’ll still be fighting the same enemy, he’ll just go by a different name.

Yes, this worries me the most. Borg ver 2.0 will have a free hand to ditch the inconvenient aspects of its history and iron out the flaws in its theology. Borg ver 2.0 might be more difficult to deal with.

However, Borg ver 2.0 will have some major hurdles. Firstly the current Borg is busy consuming all the cash and assets, selling surplus Kingdom Halls, etc. There may be less and less infrastructure available for Borg ver 2.0 to use. Secondly, the very centralised style of religion where everything globally is micromanaged from New York would be very hard to re-create in a relatively short period of time, and it would be a very daunting financial risk for even a member of the GB to try to do.

In any event, even though I thing the Borg has serious long-term financial issues, I am not expecting the Borg to collapse in the near future.

4

"See, I told you so!!"

by stuckinarut2 in

a thought occurred to me that most humans (whether they like to admit it or not) love to take a firm and proud stance on something, and love to be able to say to others "see, i told you so!".

this arrogance creates a proud and determined mindset to make people dig their heels in on a stance they have taken - all in the hope that they can one day be proven right, and therefore prove someone else wrong.. so it is with most witnesses.

they are so desperate to be proven correct after all they have invested in their faith, and they have a keen desire to say "see i told you so!".

shepherdless

Very true.

31

10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico

by ILoveTTATT2 in

jw
friends

mexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.

almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".

if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.

shepherdless

Firstly, let me applaud ILoveTTAT for his/her work, including translating jwfacts. It is extremely important work.

One comment and two questions:

If Mexico falls, pretty much the whole Watchtower falls.

Maybe in membership numbers, that is sort of true. However, Watchtower is essentially a business, and that means wealthy USA with its 1.2 million is by far the most important "Land". That being said, the borg is proportionaly more of a blight on the people of Mexico than virtually any country in the world.

First question: I was wondering whether Mexico becoming any less overwhelmingly Catholic, which may partially explain the flattening growth. My reason for asking is that I have noticed that the borg's success in any particular country seems to be directly proportional to how "Christian" a country is. Countries where there is a high proportion of the polulation professing Christianity seem to have the most JWs. Countries where the proportion of Christians are dropping seem to have had lower JW growth.

Second question: Does anyone know if JWs in Mexico are getting older on average (as statistical data shows they are in Aust and USA)? My reason for asking is that, after sifting a lot of data elsewhere (see my own threads), that gradually flattening growth is likely to coincide, even caused by, a membership that is ageing, which in turn is a reliable predictor of future growth/decline. Average age in a religion where many people are joining and leaving is not that important, but JWism is now a religion where there are few converts, and so the issue is very important. If the average age of JWs is increasing, or significantly above the population, it amounts to "locked-in" future decline.

But thanks again, ILoveTTATT. Please keep up the good fight.

9

Not a lot of young people

by Akid48 in

i have look around and im counting 5-18 for young aka kids or teens we only have 4 includeing me that can think on there own and are teens.the only other kids there are 3 5 or to young to even think that there mom or dad are wrong on any thing.. just wanting to know if any if any one see this at a kingdom hall..

shepherdless

I never attend, but my son (who no longer attends) said much the same thing. Some very young kids, a few young teenagers, and then virtually nobody between his age and his mother.

On another thread, I set out a table using Australian census data, of JWs in 5 year age groups. There is an astonishing drop off in young people over the last decade. It must be wierd to be a young person attending a Kingdom Hall in Australia, at least, these days.

Interestingly, when extracting census data, I noticed that Seventh Day Adventists in Aust had a lot more kids, despite being a much smaller religion.