Question for SBF

Fisherman

Slimboyfat, it appears that wts is going, gone digital. Can you show your view what is wts next move after they are completely gone from Kings County and settled in Warwick? - This thread is your if you want it.

slimboyfat

What happens next? I would never have guessed they would get rid of print literature to the extent that they have. Or that they would drop Gilead or DOs or close so many branches. I am not good at predictions, especially about the future. (That's meant to be funny, by the way, since predictions are always about the future.)

But here goes anyway.

It depends how much money they've got left how long it takes to play out. From the sales of property and raid on KH funds, they may have quite a bit. But since their revenue is poor I think they will face a shortage sonner or later.

They will reduce printing even further. Maybe eventually they'll stop printing altogether and use commercial firms to print a few select items. They may get local congregations to print their own small items. (In fact they are already doing this. Watchtower recently announced that sheet music for the Kingdom Songs will soon be released as PDF and brothers should print their own. There is apparently no plan for the Watchtower ever to print this material, it's all on the brothers now.) The elimination of print literature really signals the demise of JW culture to a significant degree. For most of their history the very identity of JWs was bound up with the books and magazines: their public ubiquitousness, display in JW homes, use in meetings and ministry, studying and underlining, devotion to the literature as important items even to the extent of smuggling it during persecution and bans and so on. The demise of the literature is a huge development.

As money runs out they'll close down more congregations and take more money. Congregations that struggle to send money to the Watchtower will be top of the list for closure. The number of JWs worldwide will start to decrease, especially in western countries. Maybe they'll stop publishing the numbers when decline becomes entrenched. (Within 5 years) More JWs will disbelieve the organisation and leave. Dissent and lack of respect for the leadership will grow among those who stay. The GB will crack down more and more, insisting on shunning apostates and insisting the great tribulation is very near. Eventually money will be so short and they will make such drastic cuts that ordinary JWs will begin to suspect Watchtower is in real trouble. They will close most branches, stop paying any missionaries or circuit overseers, sell assembly halls and KHs. At this point there may appear rifts and splits among the leadership and power struggles, including various official and unofficial attempts to explain the desperate situation of the organisation as a trial from Satan or conversely as some part of God's plan. How this plays out may depend on the complexities of the legal structure of JWs, including obscure aspects of the legal foundation that only become apparent under stress.

At this point I don't know what happens. Complete disintegration, splinter groups, transformation, or who knows? I think all this could happen within 10 to 20 years.

What do you think?

UnshackleTheChains

As money runs out they'll close down more congregations and take more money

SBF

Your analysis is amazing. It will be interesting to see what transpires over the coming years.

In regards to what you said about selling of kh's. I wonder if this is what the watchtower foresees, hence the newer business like KH structures they are building. Time will tell.

slimboyfat

My prediction is basically more of the same, and considering the ultimate consequences if current trends continue. If there are more and more cuts, and decline gets worse and worse, then I think a crisis is inevitable at some point. The other possibility is that they manage to reverse the trend. It's difficult to see how that will happen. Then again the future almost never fails to be surprising.

All sorts of other events could have a huge impact: fallout from abuse scandals, geopolitical developments (war, including nuclear conflict?), high level defections or expulsions from GB, technological innovations beyond what we can imagine (life extension, space travel or whatever) or who knows what else. The most important factors may well be the ones we cannot even imagine.

Listener

Sounds very plausible SBF, thanks for asking the question Fisherman.

smiddy3

I think that`s a great analysis slimboyfat

The elimination of print literature really signals the demise of JW culture to a significant degree.

I think you have hit the nail on the head with that statement

The demise of the literature is a huge development.

Well said.I couldn`t agree more

jp1692

THIS:

SBF: The elimination of print literature really signals the demise of JW culture to a significant degree. For most of their history the very identity of JWs was bound up with the books and magazines. ... The demise of the literature is a huge development.

Seriously. It's not the Watchtower Bible and Website Society!

jookbeard

DO's have gone already haven't they?

alanv

I am looking forward to seeing the next service report. Last year there was actually a slight decrease in publishers over the whole of Europe. So really hoping that will continue and spread to other continents.

jp1692

SBF: How this plays out may depend on the complexities of the legal structure of JWs, including obscure aspects of the legal foundation that only become apparent under stress.

Popular legend has it that on October 31, 1517 Martin Luther defiantly nailed a copy of his 95 Theses to the door of the Wittenberg Castle church. The Catholic Church is still around 500 years later, albeit a much different kind of religion that it was during the Dark Ages.

Things are much different now in the modern Information Age. But as much as I'd like to see the cult known as Jehovah's Witnesses go "bye-bye" I don't see it happening entirely. Too many humans that love to be told what to do are currently followers. It may become more of a fringe religion than it already is, but I don't see it entirely disappearing in the short-term.

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