Posts by shepherdless

13

A wave of momentum!

by stuckinarut2 in

it certainly has to be one of the most exciting times to live in as an awake ex witness!.

the wave of momentum we are part of as thousands awaken from the hold of the society is a joy to be a part of.

the internet helps us to see that we are not alone.

shepherdless

I have been reading sites like this for about 3 years or so.

Back then, JWism still seemed to have respectable growth globally (slightly higher than global population growth in percentage terms) and no visible money problems. Wow has it changed since then.

As the age of the typical JW in western countries continues to rise, gradual decline is inevitable. I don’t want to go over previous discussion, but in any large population, once the median age goes over a certain level, future decline is inevitable, for decades. That is the position Watchtower is in.

There is a mixture of opinions as to what extent Watchtower is in financial difficulties, but at the very least, financial concerns are a major distraction for those in charge, and a limitation on options to address the decline.

It is a good time to be monitoring this religion.

64

Why is there such a 'high turnover' within the Jehovahs Witnesses?

by UnshackleTheChains in

i happened to come across a time article in 2008. it was basically talking about the high turnover in american faiths.

it mentioned the jdubs and highlighted the following point.. an even more extreme example of what might be called "masked churn" is the relatively tiny jehovah's witnesses, with a turnover rate of about two-thirds.

that means that two-thirds of the people who told pew they were raised jehovah's witnesses no longer are — yet the group attracts roughly the same number of converts.

shepherdless

Gee, it looks like I may be getting dragged into an argument of some sorts. I prefer to not be involved.

I will just respond to JP’s question. Sorry to be slow to respond.

JP: In the interim, I've a couple of questions for you so I know what to share. Are you familiar with the concepts of:
Cognitive Dissonance?
Confirmation Bias?
Asch Conformity Experiment?
The work of Leon Festinger?
Also, what do you mean by "street-wise"?

Dealing with each in turn:

1 and 4. I only became aware of Leon Festinger and cognitive dissonance around 3 years ago, via a Theremin Trees video. It was an eye-opener. I realised I used to observe cognitive dissonance long before, but never had a name for it. An extreme example: years ago I remember shopping with a girlfriend and selecting a shampoo brand. Girlfriend overruled me and picked another and said this one has a nicer advert. (Yes, there was a very nice and moving romantic advert running for that other brand at the time. It was a crap product.) I consider that an extreme example of emotion clashing with and overriding intellect.

2. I think most people who have been reading sites such as these will be familiar with confirmation bias.

3. I don’t know what the Asch conformity experiment is.

What do I mean by street-wise? Some people are naturally (or brought up to be) suspicious or looking for motives for the behaviour of those that interact with them; particularly those that approach them. Street wise people sense and dislike being love bombed, for example.

Actually, I think we are slightly at cross purposes. I was thinking more about someone walking away after early contact with the cult, where as (in retrospect) I think you are referring to someone inside, who eventually works out it is not the truth. Hence your reference to moral integrity, which I didn’t initially understand.

20

It's been a GREAT week for me!

by dubstepped in

so as some of you know i have a podcast called this jw life.

i put my story out there in 9 parts, and i've had lots of great experiences so far and met lots of nice people and i've made new internet friends, even some in person.

this last seven days though has been soooooo cool!.

shepherdless

Well done!

26

Darwin's lack of evidence

by Half banana in

while making bread this morning and between answering the door and phone calls, i listened on steam radio to the programme in our time with melvyn bragg.

his panel of experts explained how the discovery of thousands of bird fossils has revolutionised our perception of avian evolution.

i recall watchtower literature smugly presenting darwin’s admissions in his origin of the species that the geological evidence for bird evolution is “imperfect” in fact missing.

shepherdless

But don't confuse evidence with interpretation and conclusions.

More importantly, don’t confuse bald assertions with evidence.

64

Why is there such a 'high turnover' within the Jehovahs Witnesses?

by UnshackleTheChains in

i happened to come across a time article in 2008. it was basically talking about the high turnover in american faiths.

it mentioned the jdubs and highlighted the following point.. an even more extreme example of what might be called "masked churn" is the relatively tiny jehovah's witnesses, with a turnover rate of about two-thirds.

that means that two-thirds of the people who told pew they were raised jehovah's witnesses no longer are — yet the group attracts roughly the same number of converts.

shepherdless

Hi jp, I have no research, apart from anecdotal observations. Nevertheless, your points 2 and 3 seem spot on to me. I also agree that intelligence (whatever that means) is not a significant factor.

Could you expand on what you mean by point 1? Also, if you have any easy links to publicly available relevant scientific data, I for one would be interested to see it.

Anecdotal observation and intuition suggests to me that another important factor is how “street-wise” a person is. I don’t know how that can be measured.

50

The wonder of scientific research

by amicabl in

this has possibly been brought up before however here goes.. constant reference is made by many posters to scientific research as being the only way to prove something factual that would otherwise have to be taken on faith.

there actually seems to be "faith" in scientific findings.. my experience over many years is that most scientific research is fake.

nothing oftencomes of the big announcements made to raise more money.. money, prestige, pride, human error, suppositions etc., are rife amongst the scientific community.. i realise that there have been many advances over hundreds of years but humankind is in a mess, although very different to even a century ago.. the medical profession now has vaccinations for everything, antiviral drugs etc.

shepherdless

Slidin fast quotes Ben Goldacres’s book, which is brilliant.

For a comical expose on the pseudoscience of the cosmetics industry, the following episode of “The Checkout” is very very good:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bicx6Txo2jE

50

The wonder of scientific research

by amicabl in

this has possibly been brought up before however here goes.. constant reference is made by many posters to scientific research as being the only way to prove something factual that would otherwise have to be taken on faith.

there actually seems to be "faith" in scientific findings.. my experience over many years is that most scientific research is fake.

nothing oftencomes of the big announcements made to raise more money.. money, prestige, pride, human error, suppositions etc., are rife amongst the scientific community.. i realise that there have been many advances over hundreds of years but humankind is in a mess, although very different to even a century ago.. the medical profession now has vaccinations for everything, antiviral drugs etc.

shepherdless

Nobody should have “faith” in science. When properly carried out, it is based on logic, evidence and observation.

A lot of the problem is that there are many goods and services marketed with “sciencey” sounding words and phrases. There are a lot of people selling alternative medicines, alternative treatments, dietary supplements, vitamins, cosmetics etc using these “sciencey” sounding jargon.

For a lot of those items, the manufacturers have never produced proper double-blind tests to demonstrate any actual benefits.

And then 5, 10 or 15 years later, someone does some proper research and shows that those vitamins, antioxidants, omega3 oils, skin moisturisers, or whatever, were of no benefit, and possibly harmful, etc. It undermines the average joe’s trust in science, even though there was never any proper science associated with the product to start with.

500 hundred years ago, witches etc might have sold their useless concoctions with impressive sounding oral witchcraft spells. Now the same witches market all their food supplements and cosmetics with “sciencey” sounding phrases.

14

South Ossetia declares Jehovah’s Witnesses ‘extremists

by pleaseresearch in

the supreme court in the breakaway south ossetia has ruled that jehovah’s witnesses is an extremist organization and banned its activities.. when the ruling comes into force in a few days, jehovah’s witnesses members will face up to 10 years in jail for any religious activities such as assembly and distributing literature.. http://dfwatch.net/south-ossetia-jehovahs-witnesses-49295.

shepherdless

South Ossetia has a population of 53,000. Surely there can’t be many JWs there.

19

Look what I got for five bucks...

by Nosferatu in

jw
friends

i think i've found the one true religion!.

.

shepherdless

Looks like an original on ebay sells for around $200. Well spotted.

44

Did you leave the JW RECENTLY? Really? Recently? WTF were you thinking?

by The Real Edward Gentry in

jw
friends

not to be overly harsh...but if you just left, what the hell were you thinking?

between 1995 and now, you never did an internet search of "jehovahs-witness" or "watchtower"?

good god.

shepherdless

For a long while, I could not make sense of why any moderately intelligent person could be a JW. I just did not understand human psychology. I suggest the o.p. watch the following video:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=247s&v=IaUhR-tRkHY