Posts by shepherdless

8

I thought this was such a well written article I decided to cut and past it here

by joe134cd in

i read this article on exjwreddit and thought it was so well written, that just summed everything up.

i've cut and paste it.

here is the link to it on reddit.. https://m.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/4spw99/where_have_all_the_jws_gone/.

shepherdless

Here is the Pew Research source:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/11/which-u-s-religious-groups-are-oldest-and-youngest/

Someone else has posted it a few days ago and commented on it.

Yes, the reddit article is well written. However, I think the author of the article misunderstood the statistics. The author appears to be comparing Jehovahs Witnesses to a bunch of "mainline" protestant religions, noted that those protestant religions had greater proportions of over 65s, and drew the conclusion that over 65s are leaving Jehovahs Witnesses in droves.

Looking more closely at the data and the original 2014 Pew Report, what is actually happening is that protestant religions (particularly what Pew defines as "mainline") are dying rapidly. Because the chart contains lots of smaller protestant religions, and (for example) only one line for Catholic, it creates a skewed initial impression.

The best way to look at the chart is to compare JW to the "All US adults" (shown two thirds the way down). Its the adults under 29 that are missing, not the over 65s.

532

I conclude evolution is guided

by KateWild in

your qualifications are way above mine so i'd love to hear more about the specifics of what you have researched and how that supports the existence of a deity.

k99, i am not really convinced that you're interested in my conclusions.

in nature amino acids formed to then form dna.

shepherdless

I studied chemistry (both organic and inorganic) decades ago at Uni, and I remember learning about isomerism, and that all DNA is left hand spiral. Back then, the lecturers didn't have a definite answer to that. So I probably know more than the average Joe, but am no expert.

I started writing a lengthy explanation, and then thought, "what's the point".

The link given by notsurewheretogo appears to deal with part of the abiogenesis issue. I would add that one possible (indeed obvious) explanation is that DNA molecules form so incredibly rarely that the first DNA molecule that formed would have had a massive head start on any subsequent one that formed. I could add numerous paragraphs to explain this in detail, but...

More importantly, because DNA chains are so lengthy, it is impossible for the descendants of any DNA life form to have DNA spiral in the opposite direction.

In simple terms, all DNA life forms have left hand DNA, because all DNA life forms had one common ancestor.

Whatever way you look at it, this is actually (further) proof of evolution. Maybe a "creator" created the first DNA molecule, but certainly hasn't controlled the process since.

7

Jehovah's Witnesses age demographics compared to US population and other beliefs- PEW study

by Balaamsass2 in

i found this pew data of passing interest.

it flies in the face of what i have seen in english congregations, but when i think of all the spanish congregations, it made sense.

jws show fewer senior members than mainline churches.

shepherdless

The information in the report appears to be based upon data from the 2014 Pew Report, but further extracted and expanded.

Both the 2014 report and this report states the median adult age of a JW in USA is 50. This is more important that I think people realise. The median age for JW increased dramatically between Pew's 2007 and 2014 reports. History shows that an excellent early indicator of a religion or population in decline is when its median age increases over a certain level. It appears the religion in USA has reached that level.

To put it in context, the reports define adults as those over 18, so "50" is equivalent to a population median age of around 41. In the last few years, the median age in Japan has reached that level, and Japan's population is now in decline.

Although JW appears in around the middle of the chart, you have to remember the 2014 Pew Report showed that most Christian religions were losing members and aging, with "mainline" Protestant religions faring worst. So being in the middle of that chart is not a sign of health.

20

How did all these civilizations survive the flood?

by losthobbit in

flood 2304 bc (http://creation.com/the-date-of-noahs-flood).

neolithic 8500-1500 bc (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_neolithic_cultures_of_china).

egyption dynasty 4 2613 to 2494 bc, dynasty 5: 2494 to 2345 bc, dynasty 6: 2345 - 2181 bc (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_ancient_egyptian_dynasties).

shepherdless

However, there are theories that some flood may have occurred long, long time ago. This would explain why we have stories about floods coming from different cultures that didn't have contact with each other prior to globalization.

A while ago, I tried to find details on all these various flood stories from different cultures. I came to the conclusion that the assertion that there are multiple flood myth stories is, itself, a myth. It seems some people have gone to great extent to dig up and list every ancient and medieval reference to a flood or deluge and try to use it as evidence.

Worse, most accounts only appear after a culture has had contact with Christianity and the biblical flood myth. To pick a ridiculous example, Lebor Gabála Érenn, (compiled in the middle ages in Christian Ireland, and repeats biblical accounts) is cited by some as evidence of another culture with an ancient flood myth.

Most accounts that resemble the Noah's ark story are Sumerian or Mesopotamian in origin. All of these accounts seem to stem from the Epic of Gilgamesh. The story of Utnapishtim in the Epic of Gilgamesh has so many similarities to the Noah's ark story, it has to be from the same source, or one is copied from the other. In both stories an extremely large rectangular boat is built (admittedly different dimensions) and is loaded with animals and Utnapishtim/Noah's family. The flood comes and the boat eventually comes to rest on a mountain. Both Utnapishtim and Noah release birds to find land in the process.

I think the story in the Epic of Gilgamesh is the source for the Noah's Ark story (not vica versa) because:

The Epic of Gigamesh is much older than any written account of Noah's flood.
The Epic of Gigamesh was a widely repeated story in the region and there is around 1000 years difference in age between the earliest and the last known written accounts.
Early Israelites would have heard the stories of the Epic of Gilgamesh from one or more neighboring peoples.
Isrealites captured in Babylon would have heard the stories of the Epic of Gilgamesh from their captors.
The flood part of the Epic of Gilgamesh is part of a wider set of stories that make much more sense (as a work of fiction).
The Epic of Gilgamesh doesn't purport to be in any way historical.

I should add that am no professional researcher or historian, and I would be interested in any other views.

64

Transubstantiation?

by leavingwt in

jw
friends

does anyone here accept the doctrine of transubstantiation?

if so, please elaborate.

theology: the changing of the elements of the bread and wine, when they are consecrated in the eucharist, into the body and blood of christ (a doctrine of the roman catholic church).

shepherdless

John Mann - The substance of the bread and wine are transformed. But the physical aspects (accidents) are the same.

Yes I was brought up as a Catholic as well, and was taught something similar. In simple terms, the bread and wine is said to have been transformed, but the transformation is undetectable. Using fancy words such as "transubstantiation" makes it sound sound more profound and gives the concept an air of credibility.

Question for John Mann: what is a difference between a "transformation" that is not physically observable, and a transformation that is said to only occur symbolically?

6

BREXIT - Lets provoke some comments please

by ZAPPA-ESQUE in

this is wunder-food for dubs [my dub family are already having apocalyptic orgasms about this ]" its 'bad" this is the "trigger" .... "you should come back now " .

so in reality what will it bring for you and i - the regular pawns of society ?

- end of western civilisation?

shepherdless

I suspect that after all the hype has died down, Brexit will have as much impact on "western civilization" as the Y2K bug did 16 years ago. (ie, virtually none.)

45

Printing presses, bye... bye...

by sp74bb in

jw
friends

bye... bye.... no more new printing presses for jw.org... the growth is so tremendous (irony...).. all printing work in europe will be arrange in the next month only in selters (germany), but no renovation or upgrading in printing presses is expected... it will be a full outsourcing :).

a worldly company axel s******* will be used.

this company is known to be printing bild newspaper... the interesting part of it is the logistics will be as well outsourced.

shepherdless

Extraordinary!

However, I am slightly disappointed. This is a sound commercial decision. Not only will a commercial printer probably be cheaper and more efficient, it will mean that they won't have a need for lots of bethelites, with associated costs of housing them, they won't have a need for expensive depreciating machinery etc.

25

Why a drop of over 3,700 publishers in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

by freddo in

jw
friends

looking at the figures for 2014 to 2015 the numbers have dropped from 180,343 to 176,585.. any idea why?.

shepherdless

Hi dropoffyourkeelee,

I think there is more to it, than that. Here is your table, with the number of baptised added as an extra column:

2010 151,842 10,711

2011 161,298 6.2% 11,593

2012 163,349 1.3% 10,668

2013 174,687 6.9% 19,501

2014 180,343 3.2% 11,052

2015 176,585 -2.1% 10,274

Over the same period, population increased by 13% but publisher numbers increased by 16%.

If the figures are to be believed, what they seem to show is that over the past few years, they are very good at baptizing people, but poor at retaining them. Last year, baptisms were a little down and retention was even worse. If the figures were fudged, they were probably fudged every year.

My bet is that it is a retention issue.

Also, for logistical and geographical reasons, I don't think a significant number could have gone across a border, to (for example) Angola. It is a very big country in both area and population. May be a few, but not 10% or more.

123

Message from Designer Stubble to the former JWR members

by Designer Stubble in

jw
friends

message from designer stubble to the former jwr members.

first of all i am glad to see that many of you have found your way to this great forum, facilitated by simon.

i am sure that after the dust of the jwr shutdown has settled, you will find this to be a good new home.. i would like to apologize for the sudden closure of jwr.

shepherdless

Was there quality stuff on there like there is in the archives here from Leolaia, AlanF and so on that it would be a shame to lose?

Just going from memory:

There were some videos on cults and how they behave, which I haven't seen here.
There were merged threads which acted like libraries on discrete issues (which I suspect gave the administrators grief in trying to maintain).
There were things like the "Steven Lett Appreciation Thread" which I think was mostly Fugue's creation, and was very funny.
There was a thread titled "Religious or Political Memes" which had been added to over time (years) and was hilarious.
There were a lot of particular threads (like libraries) for lurkers who had doubts or were emotionally traumatized.

I am sure others can add to, or correct, this list.

123

Message from Designer Stubble to the former JWR members

by Designer Stubble in

jw
friends

message from designer stubble to the former jwr members.

first of all i am glad to see that many of you have found your way to this great forum, facilitated by simon.

i am sure that after the dust of the jwr shutdown has settled, you will find this to be a good new home.. i would like to apologize for the sudden closure of jwr.

shepherdless

I cannot believe the schoolyard slapping that is going on now. It sure isn't making us X JWR's looking any good.

I was thinking the ex JWR's are very quickly adapting to the culture of this site. In my limited experience, people have always been less afraid to debate a point here.

By the way, I am so glad so many people have made it here from JWR. Even though I didn't post a lot there, I read it a lot and I feel like I know many of you. There are still a number of regulars that haven't made it here, thus far.

I am hoping someone can recover some of those meme's from JWR. They were brilliant.