shepherdless

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Posts by shepherdless

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  11

  Evolution is a Fact #39 - Homologous Structures

  by cofty in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  every living thing descended from a common ancestor over millions of years.

  this is the central fact that the theory of evolution explains.

  house sparrows and tree sparrows only need to go back relatively few generations to find their common ancestor, while trout and tigers must search much closer to the roots of the tree for theirs.. darwin sketched this idea of common ancestry along with the words "i think" in one of his notebooks.

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  shepherdless

  I think there were only three occasions in natural history that a species larger than an insect evolved the ability to fly, namely:

  • the bird (fossils suggest it evolved from a type of feathered dinosaur),
  • the bat (fossils suggest it evolved from a mammal), and
  • the pterodactyl (extinct - fossils suggest it evolved from a reptile).

  As shown in the diagrams in Cofty's OP, the bird and the bat have very different wing structures. For the bird, the fingers have shrunk to virtually nothing, and the feathers provide the rigidity. For the bat, the fingers became very large with a membrane or webbing between the fingers. The pterodactyl wings are very different again; the fingers are still there (and the elbows play a role), but there is one enormous finger and the rest are stubs.

  All 3 creatures have hands and fingers (or the remnants of them). All 3 have very different wing structures. Surely one way of creating a wing is superior to all others. So why would a creator create three completely different ways? Further, why would a creator use the fundamental bone structure of a hand, each time? Evolution provides an obvious explanation for each of these questions.
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  27

  Apostasy endorsed in this yesterday's Watchtower Study

  by doubtfull1799 in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  “there may be occasions when it would be good for us to reconsider a choice or decision.

  it could be when the prevailing circumstances change.

  jehovah altered his decision at times when circumstances changed.

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  shepherdless

  If there is a change coming, my guess is that it is more likely to be a change in the 2 witness rule, or how child abuse is handled, or something like that. Hanging on to 1914 might hurt the borg, but mismanagement of child abuse allegations really hurts where they feel it the most - financially.
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  11

  Evolution is a Fact #25 - Deep Time

  by cofty in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  in the 18th century the calculations of archbishop james ussher regarding the age of the earth were still accepted without question.

  according to ussher god made the earth at 6pm on the evening of saturday 22nd october 4004 b.c.. this naive certainty was to become a victim of the scottish enlightenment and the brilliant mind of james hutton.

  having qualified as a medical doctor in 1749 hutton returned to the family farm in berwickshire not far from where i am typing this now.

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  shepherdless

  Great work as usual, Cofty. Just wanted to mention something; apologies for the sidetrack.

  In the 18th century the calculations of Archbishop James Ussher regarding the age of the earth were still accepted without question. According to Ussher god made the earth at 6pm on the evening of Saturday 22nd October 4004 B.C.

  James Ussher published "The Annals of the World" on 13 July 1650. The copy I have does not mention "6pm" as the time of the creation of the earth. It just states that the "beginning of time, according to our chronology, happened at the start of the evening preceding the 23rd day of October in the year... [4004BC]" I suspect he used that expression because he probably understood the whole planet could not be in one time zone, and he actually acknowledged that "day" and "night" were created the next day.

  Ussher must have used the Masoretic (or Vulgate) version of the Hebrew Scriptures (Old Testament), not the Septuagint, because the book has Seth born 130 years after Adam, etc. I mention that because if Ussher used the Septuagint, he would have concluded the Flood occurred around 750 years earlier, and the beginning of time about 1000 years earlier. The book is incredibly impressive, given when it was written. It appears thoroughly researched with extensive biblical and "secular" cross-references.
  

  Interesting for JW's:

  1. Ussher puts the date of the destruction of Jerusalem as April 588 BC, and the fall of Babylon as occurring in 538 BC. Ussher probably used Ptolomy's canon, which you can use to calculate the correct dates +/- 1 year. (The reason any calc using Ptolomy's canon can be 1 year out, is that it is a list of eclipses by reference to list of rulers and years of rule, not a calendar.)

  2. Ussher biblically interprets the "70 years" as commencing from the date Jehoiakim was led away in chains by Nebuchadnezzar, NOT the destruction of Jerusalem. He goes into a lot of detail on this point, but here is a quote:

  775. Nebuchadnezzar chained Jehoiakim to carry him away to Babylon. 2Ch 36:6 Later upon submission and his promises of subjection, he let him stay in his own house where he lived as his servant for 3 years. From this time of the carrying of the king and people of the Jews into the bondage of Nebuchadnezzar, starts the 70 years of the captivity of Babylon which were foretold by the prophet Jeremiah. Jer 25:11 29:10.

  BTW, anyone who thinks that the bible supports the JW version of when Jerusalem fell, rather than "secular history", should read those passages of Jeremiah.

  3. Ussher concludes that Jesus must have been born in 4 BC.

  [edit: 1 word deleted]
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  22

  I have a theory related to the cult spectrum

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  translating jwfacts into spanish has made me critically analyze pretty much everything paul has written.

  i would say paul is right 90%+ of the time.

  some things are just things that are outdated, on other occasions, things are partially right and just need to be tweaked.anyhow... one of the articles is "where else would i go"?since i am an atheist, ideally, for me, the answer would be "become at least agnostic, if not atheist, and lead an evidence-based life".

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  shepherdless

  Seems a reasonable theory to me.
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  46

  The real reason Chelmsford hasn't been stopped

  by Saltheart Foamfollower in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i haven't seen this mentioned yet.

  last year in the uk, shortly after the money grab that everyone had, we had a video and letter (both probably still available from atlantis) appealing for money for the new bethel and slips were handed out etc.

  this means that most uk congregations are sending a regular donation specifically for the chelmsford build.

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  shepherdless

  This Chelmsford projects seems to be quite a drain on the Borg's UK finances. The recently released IBSA 2016 accounts contain:

  
  

  and

  
  

  So they have spent £12,775,126 last year (no mention of costs in preceding years that I can find), and are expecting to spend a further £94 million in the future. That is quite a bit more than I would have thought.
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  18

  UK JWs go up 72 places in latest 2017 Charity 250 Index (2nd highest climbers)

  by darkspilver in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm not really sure what this charity 250 index is trying to do.

  partly because i'd expect a few big household name charities to be on it at the top.

  i've copied the table below - see positions 19 (up from 70) and 130 (up from 202).

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  shepherdless

  Have you checked the 'Documents' tab on the Charity Commission's website? Are they the documents you mean? Or, are there others?

  No, I missed that. These appear to be identical to the ones I have. I see it has the 2016 accounts as well. I will have a read, when I get the chance.
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  18

  UK JWs go up 72 places in latest 2017 Charity 250 Index (2nd highest climbers)

  by darkspilver in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm not really sure what this charity 250 index is trying to do.

  partly because i'd expect a few big household name charities to be on it at the top.

  i've copied the table below - see positions 19 (up from 70) and 130 (up from 202).

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  shepherdless

  Each UK JW donates £14.59 (US $18.85) EVERY week to the WT

  Darkspilver, the websites you link to are summaries of WTBTS and IBSA financials. I downloaded pdfs of the actual financials last year. (I tried to attach the pdf's; I don't seem able to.)

  In the original accounts, there is no separation out of what was donated from surpluses held by congregations, vs what was donated by individuals. There is a massive increase in cash coming in from 2013 to 2015, and I just don't believe there has been a massive increase in individual donations over that time.

  I should point out that you can't just add WTBTS and IBSA donations together as you did in your calc, as a significant proportion of that money is in the form of "grants", possibly to each other.

  If you just look at cash donations, then WTBTS received £41 million (up from £30 million in 2014 and £8 million in 2013), and IBSA received £14.5 million, (up from £10.6 million in 2014; I don't have 2013 figure).
  

  (41 + 14.5) million / 138,261 / 52 = £7.72 per week.

  However, the figure may be lower, for reasons stated earlier.

  I downloaded the all the UK 2015 accounts from a link Barbara Anderson put up in around August last year. I don't know if it is still available.
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  18

  UK JWs go up 72 places in latest 2017 Charity 250 Index (2nd highest climbers)

  by darkspilver in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm not really sure what this charity 250 index is trying to do.

  partly because i'd expect a few big household name charities to be on it at the top.

  i've copied the table below - see positions 19 (up from 70) and 130 (up from 202).

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  shepherdless

  Also, while not a donation but a non-secured loan, Watchtower Australia has run its operations into the red by passing millions onto Watchtower Britain.

  Yes. Here is the entry in IBSA's (UK) accounts that proves the point jwleaks is making:

  
  

  
  

  So it is an interest free loan of over A$5 million, unsecured and non-refundable for at least 5 years. I am sure we would all like one of those.

  
  

  Keep in mind that donations from Watchtower branches all over Europe and Africa make their way to Watchtower Britain.

  I am not so sure of that. It seems to me that a lot of cash goes out to Jehovaz Zeugen, Germany, which then gets sent onto Watchtower Bible Tract Society of New York, Inc, although trying to interpret what is going on, is not easy.

  I am actually surprised there aren't more people here interested in trying to work out what is going on with Watchtower finances. The next set of UK accounts should be available in around 3 months, and it will probably reveal a better picture of the financial position, at least in UK, as the effects of the once off money grab should have washed through by then.
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  12

  Looking for an original copy of The Finished Mystery 1918

  by dogon in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  if anyone has a original copy of the finished mystery 1918 they would sell contact me at [email protected].

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  shepherdless

  I did see an original on eBay not that long ago. Pricey.

  I somehow downloaded a soft copy for free, some time ago. The quality of the scan was not great, and the book seems to be gobbledygook nonsense, one of the most poorly written books I have ever tried to read, so I gave up reading it about a quarter of the way through.

  My copy had the "offending part", pages 247 to 253 separated out but attached at the end. (I think from memory, it was only a small section from those pages that led to the prosecution.) Frankly, I am a little surprised anyone managed to keep reading it to page 247, to find the seditious paragraphs.
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  18

  UK JWs go up 72 places in latest 2017 Charity 250 Index (2nd highest climbers)

  by darkspilver in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm not really sure what this charity 250 index is trying to do.

  partly because i'd expect a few big household name charities to be on it at the top.

  i've copied the table below - see positions 19 (up from 70) and 130 (up from 202).

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  shepherdless

  The rankings are almost certainly based upon WTBTS of Britain accounts for the year ended Aug 2015, and the IBSA accounts for the same date.

  i was going to do a separate post on these accounts (and the Kingdom Hall Trust), but it is a big task, and I didn't have the time. The accounts are complicated, and opaque.

  Nevertheless, the mystery here is easily solved.

  "Voluntary income" for WTBTS increased from £35,525,338 to £61,030,638. Hence the increase from 70th to 19th.

  "Voluntary income" for IBSA increased from £22,500,616 to £32,289,275. Hence the increase from 202nd to 130th.

  In both cases, my interpretation of the accounts is that the increase is the result of the "new arrangements" under which all the congregations willingly donated their accumulated funds above a certain amount. The accounts don't breakdown what proportion of the voluntary income comes from this snatch and run "new arrangement", but given "Voluntary income" in the "Restricted fund" category actually decreased over the same period (from £1,606,031 to £390,051), I would guess that actual donations from the drones have been on the decrease, perhaps a significant decrease.

  If I am right, the "increase" is nothing more than the Borg using up its internal savings, at a considerable rate, but this is not immediately apparent, because the accounts for WTBTS and IBSA are separate from the accounts of each individual congregation.

  I did see the Aust accounts at one stage, and it did look like the increase could be similarly explained.