Reply to JanH:
I'm sure O.J. Simpson would agree with you.
If you are 51% certain that a particular defendent "did it", he or she is probably guilty. This is how it often works in civil cases, because one or the other party is right or wrong.
You've been reading too many math theory books, Jan. You can't put a viable percentage value like 51% on guilt vs. innocence in a person's mind. If you are going to try to figure it on percentage, the closest you could get is a 58.31% opinion of probability in a 12-person jury if the vote was 7-to-5, assuming each person on the jury was 100% certain about their vote.
For my conscience, determining guilt "beyond a reasonable doubt" is where the clay is in the legs of the judicial system when it comes to capital punishment. I support that circumstantial evidence that is not conclusive for guilt, and should NEVER NEVER be sufficient to impose a death penalty. From all that I have heard about McVeigh, there is no room for ANY doubt whatsoever, "reasonable" or otherwise, much less a mere 51%, if that's the way you figure it. I would not impose the death penalty if probability of guilt were even only 95% if it meant 5% odds of taking an innocent life.
On the issue of freeing "probably guilty" people:
If you figure "probably guilty" (YOUR term--not a legal one) as 51%, then what percent do YOU set for "guilty beyond a reasonable doubt?
But let's use your percentage way of figuring these things for the sake of illustration. Considering whether "probably guilty" people should be set free, you said:
Of course, if you imprison people based on what you think they probably did, just under half the prison population will end up being innocent people.
Jan, that is a totally absurd statement! Talk about a "straw man"! That assumes that every prisoner in the penal system was sent up on 51% evidence of guilt. Ridiculous! The way you figure, if one guy got strung up on 95% certainty of guilt, that would conclude that out of every 20 executions one was innocent!
Let's put "probable guilt" (to use your term) at a little higher percent--say the 95% certainty, allowing a 5% margin that the accused could have been framed by the real killer, and therefore there is a 5% possibility that the guy is innocent. Let's say the crime is abducting, raping, and torturing 10 different kids on 10 different occasions. The accused claims to be innocent. Given a 5% margin of error, the guy is "probably" guilty, but there is no absolute proof, because that would require 100% certainty. Proof means proof.
Are you saying you would set this guy free, on the 95% chance another child(ren) would be brutally assaulted and murdered because the guy's only "probably" guilty? I'm not saying he should be executed, but are you saying he should be released?
It requires proof beyond reasonable doubt to convict. That is a principle of justice universally agreed
Then that is where the flaw in the system is. Conviction is one thing, but sentencing for capital punishment should have to go beyond the margin between "reasonable doubt" and absolute proof for my vote. In purest terms, "proof" should have to be 100% certainty. (Try to imagine the word "proof" now in the terms that you would require to believe in God. :-) Anything less than 100% ranges from "probably guilty" down to "innocent". "Beyond a reasonable doubt" requires a judgement call by its own definintion. Who decides what's "reasonable". Unless there is a strict
legal definition for "reasonable doubt" to mean absolute certainty beyond
any doubt whatsoever, then it allows conviction on "circumstantial evidence" which does not constitute "proof". I will say that I would never support capital punishment for anyone convicted on what is legally defined as "circumstantial evidence" no matter how convincing it might seem. That--in my opinion--is how innocent people get executed. However, if the crime is serious enough, with evidence indicating a high probability of guilt, the individual should be incarcerated. I don't believe you can put lives at a high percentage of risk in spite of the inevitability that there will be the rare unfortunate occurrence of an innocent person being unjustly imprisoned. Some things just are not perfect and never will be. Boils down to the principle of the "lesser of two evils".
Ros
"A religion that teaches lies cannot be true"--The Watchtower, 12/1/91 pg. 7