What Blues Brother said. It is an absolute crap shoot, what might happen.
The identical case with the identical words could be heard by 100 judicial committees and the outcome would be 50/50.
Putting it another way, “anyone can be disfellowshipped for anything that 3 elders agree on”.
You are presenting sound, rational arguments for why your outcome could have been different. But a judicial committee is neither sound nor rational. In the “best case scenario”, it’s 3 guys in a room trying their best to interpret intentionally vague instructions on how to judge if someone’s repentance is “genuine”.
In the worst case scenario, it’s 3 guys who are out to “get you” or “make an example of you” and you’ll be DF’ed no matter what.
in short, it is a completely irrational and arbitrary process. You can argue about how it should have been different or “they should have done it differently” but in the end, it’s the opinion of 3 guys.