Another angle here: might be that WT is losing a significant number of elders due to parents allowing DF'd children to continue living at home. In the last 20 years, I have not seen even one family kick out their disfellowshipped child-- the elder dads in these cases all stepped down as elders in order to assist their children. Rightly, they chose their child over eldership and somewhat the org. Many of these elders did not resume their eldership after the child was reinstated or decided to move out. In these cases, the families got the eye opener of how shunning feels and how your family is treated once you are just regular publishers in the cong. I saw a lot of bitterness develop in these ones.
Just a thought...