I do think the shunning policy will have an effect, intensified by the push to baptize kids younger and younger (something that would have been unheard of decades ago). Apparently the brothers are going around pressuring parents to get their children baptized young. Then as teenagers or early twenty-somethings they either don't want to be in the bOrg or they do something to get DF'd, and then the family is torn apart.
Many failing dictatorships all through history have made a similar mistake. They frequently tighten the screws on the population when they see they are failing (call it encouraging "loyalty"). This bumps up their power temporarily and then it collapses. I think this will happen to the JWs too.