Posts by TD

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

I don't have a lot of interest in biblical connections, so I apologize to the OP if I'm veering off topic here.

A lot has been said here and elsewhere about the environmental impact of bombing an enrichment facility and I would like to amplify on that a bit.

In October of 2006, North Korea detonated their first nuclear device; a simple, single stage fission bomb. People from both ends of the political spectrum wanted to know why this was simply allowed to happen and why nobody intervened. Fingers were pointed and recriminations were thrown about carelessly.

The two main reasons (IMO) are #1 Seoul, a city of more than 9 million people is unfortunately within artillery range of NK and #2 NK did not pursue Uranium enrichment like Iran has done.

NK instead produced Plutonium directly from a small graphite moderated reactor at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center and bombing a working reactor is a very, very different proposition.

Although Uranium is only weakly radioactive itself, the fissile products are not. When U235 absorbs a free neutron, it morphs into U236 and then almost immediately splits into two daughter nuclei.

As a (very) general rule, one will have a mass of around 95 and the other will have a mass around 140, but because of the randomness inherent in fission, daughter isotopes can vary anywhere from atomic weights of 74 to 160, giving us 841 possible daughter pair combinations. (England & Rider 1994, Koelsch 2016)

If this number seems high, keep in mind that many of these isotopes don't actually occur in nature and are extremely transitory. (Barium-144 for example, quickly decays into Lanthanum-144, which in turn decays into Cerium-144, which then decays into Praseodymium-144, which then decays into Neodium-144)

In discussions of environmental contamination after nuclear accidents, you hear a lot about the three most dangerous isotopes released in the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters:

Iodine-131 Highly radioactive. Accumulates in your thyroid. Half life of 8 days

Strontium-90 Not only highly radioactive, but a calcium mimic that accumulates in your bones. Half life of 28.8 years.

Cesium-137 Also Highly radioactive. Half life of 30.17 years.

In all, more than 100 different radioactive isotopes were released into the air at Chernobyl resulting in contamination that will persist for many years to come, and nobody wanted to risk that with NK.

I'm not saying any of this because I think I know exactly what was destroyed at Fordo, Isfahan & Natanz or the extent of the damage. (I don't.)

I'm just pointing out how reasoning through analogy will lead you astray here.

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

Lastmanstanding

I have been given, and will shortly be given.......a medical test

I am sorry to hear that and wish you well.

With respect, though, you're comparing apples and oranges. Medical isotopes, have half-lives measured in days during which they emit small amounts of gamma radiation.

As I already point out, Uranium isotopes decay much more slowly with half lives measured in millions of years.

You also seem to think I'm disagreeing with the IAEA and its scientists, which is perplexing since there are numerous articles saying essentially the same things I've said on this thread.

Here is a typical example: (From Al Jazeera)

----------

“Very little uranium will be released in these kind of attacks,” said David Albright, a physicist and nuclear weapons expert who founded the Institute for Science and International Security, based in Washington."

"A person standing near an enrichment facility with a leak would probably be exposed to no more radiation than someone who took several trans-Atlantic flights, which receive slightly higher radiation because radiation doses are larger at high altitudes, he said.

----------

Here's another example (From NPR)

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"The two major kinds of uranium isotopes found at this type of facility "are at the low end of hazard with regard to radioactive materials," says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington, D.C.

"What's more, these facilities would have mostly been working with uranium in the form of a gas called uranium hexafluoride. The molecules of this gas are big and heavy. That means when a container that holds this gas gets ruptured, the gas doesn't travel far through the air, according to Emily Caffrey, a health physics expert at the University of Alabama at Birmingham."

"Earlier this month, when an attack by Israel damaged the aboveground portion of the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, the level of radioactivity outside the site "remained unchanged and at normal levels, indicating no external radiological impact to the population or the environment from this event," the IAEA reported."

----------

Saudi Arabia is a substantial distance away from Fordo, Isfahan & Natanz, so again the anomaly here is entirely in your own mind.

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

I’ve contacted Rafael Mariano Grossi......

LOL

And here I thought your were going to challenge me to explain how Chernobyl, a Uranium fueled reactor at only 2% enrichment quickly became so very radioactive if Uranium itself, even when it's highly enriched, is only weakly radioactive under normal circumstances.

Instead, you pivot on your layman's misconception without rethinking it.

Regardless of whether Iran's 400+ kilos of highly enriched was buried in the bombings or not, we would not expect to see a rise in radiation in Saudi Arabia or the other gulf states.

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

Why don't you stick to things you actually understand?

U235 and U238 both have an extremely long half life (700 million years and 4.47 billion years respectively) which makes them only weakly radioactive under normal circumstances. (Decay is only Alpha particles)

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

The future has arrived swiftly.

Before you get too excited, there are three considerations to keep in mind:

1. The source for your quote is @medvedev_telegram (Dmitry Medvedev), who regularly spouts complete and utter nonsense. (Many examples can be given)

2. Nuclear devices are not turnkey systems like conventional munitions. They require a full time support staff and specialized facilities which will vary depending on the weapon design.

3. Of the nine nuclear powers, there are only three possible candidates Medvedev could have had in mind: The Russian Federation, which not only stands the most to benefit from instability in the Middle East, but does not want to see Ukraine further equipped than they already are. China, which has actually been a voice of reason and moderation in recent years. And North Korea, which is still a fledgling nuclear power itself.

As analysts were quick to point out, Medvedev's comment is nonsensical both politically and technically.

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

I was there on that day in 1975 at Woodbine when Freddie Franz made that big talk and predicted the date for Armageddon

Okay...

Assuming that is true, then you are old enough to understand at least some of backstory here, which has been attested to by numerous Iranian dissidents over the years.

In the late 1990s, Iran instituted the Amad Project, with the goal of producing a minimum of five nuclear devices by the year 2004. The project, led by the late Iranian physicist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, acquired weapon designs from Pakistan, which they refined into working prototypes to model implosion, compression, and nuclear yields using surrogate cores.

That was 20+ years ago, so when nit-wits like Kyle Kulinski make fun of Netanyahu (and others) for repeatedly pointing out the danger here, he's simply revealing a profound ignorance of how the process works. Like I said, he lacks the technical acumen to even change a spare tire. Iran literally has been on the brink for decades now. The only thing lacking from these test devices was a viable core.

The problem, as it turned out, was twofold: Technologically advanced nations use plutonium rather than uranium for their cores and plutonium, being the product of a breeder reactor, has a unique fingerprint. Nobody, not even Pakistan, is going to hand over weapons grade plutonium to Iran, because there would be absolutely zero deniability if Iran were to actually use a device armed with it.

You've made much over a close connection between Iran and Pakistan on this thread, but Pakistan is Sunni, not Shia and although the two countries are allies on paper, their differences are severe enough to provoke a number of strikes on each other's territory during the last two years.

Being Sunni and wanting to be seen as a respectable nation and not a broker of terror, the fact that Dr. Abdul Qadeer, Pakistan's head of nuclear development, sold the technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya in the late 90's became a national embarrassment for which he was actually prosecuted for.

Developing weapons grade Uranium on the other hand, is a more arduous task, which has been complicated by a number of external factors. With the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Amad Project was split into overt and covert branches. Facilities with plausible civilian applications, like Natanz and Arak were operated openly, while covert facilities like Fordoh, took over a decade to build and equip. International pressure, token obedience to JPOA and JCPOA agreements and sanctions have slowed Iran's progress, but not stopped it.

The June 2025 IAEA report estimated Iran's nuclear capability at 9 devices if they were to refine their existing stock of 60% enriched uranium. That's not a lot and there is a fair chance that devices rushed out in this fashion could be squibs, but it does explain why Israel reached a point where they felt they could not wait any longer.

Throughout this entire thread, you've insinuated that this is some sort of conspiracy that insightful people (Presumably others like you) are not fooled by and in support of this view, you've presented YouTube garbage peppered with Gen Z antisemitism.

Aside from the fact that you're old enough to know better, I'm simply going to repeat what Sea Breeze said on page 1 of this thread.

This has been expected for years. I don't know what took Israel so long to act.

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

Like every other cash rich/technologically poor nation, Iran's military is a mixed bag of U.S. Chinese and Russian equipment.

From the Shahab to the Sejjil to the Khorramshahr series however, their ballistic missile program is largely domestic.

16

Juneteenth being celebrated by JWs

by Anony Mous in

so today i saw a group of jws i know, we were sitting down to eat at a public place and i guess they (mom and daughter) were performing at an event with their sports team… for juneteenth.. they (the entire team) happened to sit next to us for some fast food and i recognized them and said hi, hoping to make them uncomfortable.

they actually said hi and introduced themselves to my family, i’ve seen them before (they go to the same school as one of my kids) and they usually ignore me.

i know for a fact they and their family still goes, the family patriarch is an elder etc.

TD

From Blondie's link: (Emphasis is mine)

"To avoid implying that they trust humans rather than God to solve the world’s problems, Jehovah’s Witnesses do not join in Youth Day or Women’s Day celebrations that support political or social campaigns. For the same reason, they do not join in Emancipation Day or similar celebrations. Instead, they look to God’s Kingdom to solve the problems of racism and inequality."

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

I was going to point out that Kyle Kulinski lacks the technical acumen to even change a spare tire and ask why you're taking your education from him, but it's become very clear....

139

WAR begins.

by lastmanstanding in

things are moving right along.

“israel” has gone to war with iran.. who is fooled?.

this is uncle sam, same as in ukraine.. daniel layed out clearly the events of “d day” june 6, 1944 as the “ships of kittim” would sail against the king of the north.

TD

The inevitable surge in crude prices is manna from heaven to Russia right now. --Not really seeing why they would want to stop it.