soontobe

Joined

• started 13 topics
• posted 907 times   see topics posted on
• send a message

Posts by soontobe

• 
  52

  RC Church - Originated when ? Spiritually Strong Ones please.

  by *lost* in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  been doing a bit of research trying to tie in together a few different strands.. not too sure what happened to christianity and how organised religion took hold again after the apostles died off.. i know jerusalem was sacked 70 ce.

  but lots to fill in from that point onwards to bring us to where we are today.. if a few peeps could help to condense and simplify the info down into a few bite size pieces it would give us a starting point to begin to re-educate ourselves to the truth.

  and fill in the blanks.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  That sounds quite like Abel was the first Jehovah's Witness type of logic.

  Really? Then to whom was this letter addressed to (Paul's Epistle to the Romans)?

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistle_to_the_Romans
• 
  52

  RC Church - Originated when ? Spiritually Strong Ones please.

  by *lost* in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  been doing a bit of research trying to tie in together a few different strands.. not too sure what happened to christianity and how organised religion took hold again after the apostles died off.. i know jerusalem was sacked 70 ce.

  but lots to fill in from that point onwards to bring us to where we are today.. if a few peeps could help to condense and simplify the info down into a few bite size pieces it would give us a starting point to begin to re-educate ourselves to the truth.

  and fill in the blanks.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  RC Church - Originated when ? Spiritually Strong Ones please.

  If we mean "small c" catholic, well that was started by Jesus. That's the universal Church (which is what catholic means), which is composed of particular churches, which includes the Roman church.

  If we mean the Roman church specifically, that was started when Peter went there.

  Other apostles founded churches in other places. Some of them are in communion with Rome, and are Catholic, although not Roman.
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  And you cite what in proof of lack of consensus?

  You are the one making the claims of "98%" as a centerpiece for your line of argumentation. That's fine, but then you present a laughable survey as evidence, and use it in every other post. The survey is worthless, IMHO.
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  And what appears to be a rather poor sample:

  http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/01/03/lawrence-solomon-97-cooked-stats/

  Lawrence Solomon: 97% cooked stats

  ....This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2008 master’s thesis by student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman at the University of Illinois, under the guidance of Peter Doran, an associate professor of Earth and environmental sciences. The two researchers obtained their results by conducting a survey of 10,257 Earth scientists. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers — in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change. The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout.

  The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth — out were the solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, astronomers and meteorologists. That left the 10,257 scientists in such disciplines as geology, geography, oceanography, engineering, paleontology and geochemistry who were somehow deemed more worthy of being included in the consensus. The two researchers also decided scientific accomplishment should not be a factor in who could answer — those surveyed were determined by their place of employment (an academic or a governmental institution). Neither was academic qualification a factor — about 1,000 of those surveyed did not have a PhD, some didn’t even have a master’s diploma.

  To encourage a high participation among these remaining disciplines, the two researchers decided on a quickie survey that would take less than two minutes to complete, and would be done online, saving the respondents the hassle of mailing a reply. Nevertheless, most didn’t consider the quickie survey worthy of response — just 3,146, or 30.7%, answered the two key questions on the survey:
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  For those interested in learning about a problem with the survey here is a wikipedia link on the subject of selection bias:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  Other Doran/Zimmeran survey problems as well. Not only possible selection bias, but small sample size. This survey isn't a scientific survey, so it is useless for anyone trying to prove a point. Furthermore, the second question does not address CO2/climate specifically.

  http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/07/17/that-scientific-global-warming-consensus-not/

  So where did that famous “consensus” claim that “98% of all scientists believe in global warming” come from? It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-minute, two question online survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois. Of the about 3.000 who responded, 82% answered “yes” to the second question, which like the first, most people I know would also have agreed with.

  Then of those, only a small subset, just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals, were considered in their survey statistic. That “98% all scientists” referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered “yes”.

  That anything-but-scientific survey asked two questions. The first: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?” Few would be expected to dispute this…the planet began thawing out of the “Little Ice Age” in the middle 19 th century, predating the Industrial Revolution. (That was the coldest period since the last real Ice Age ended roughly 10,000 years ago.)

  The second question asked: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” So what constitutes “significant”? Does “changing” include both cooling and warming… and for both “better” and “worse”? And which contributions…does this include land use changes, such as agriculture and deforestation?
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  According to Ambler's review of the Doron/Zimmerman data, 10,257 scientists were contacted, 3,146 responded. That's less than 31%. Of that group "only 5% described themselves as climate scientists, numbering 157. The authors reduced that by half by only counting those who they classed as "specialists."

  Smells like selection bias.
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  loving the Daily Mail as the source of all wisdom :-)

  The other chart is from The Economist. The data in the chart appear to be the same. If you don't have a problem with the data, then I fail to see the point of your comment besides an attempt at well poisoning. I notice you tried to do the same thing with TT2C. That's not going to work here.

  And, by the way, I'm not going to play the "answer 20 questions" game.
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  Here is another chart showing the same thing:

  
• 
  165

  '1600 years of Ice melting in 25 years is a bad omen'

  by designs in

  1. social
  2. current

  glaciologists from ohio state university have been studying the ice fields in peru.

  tropical peru is home to ice formations 18,000 feet up in the quelccaya region, the largest of these tropical region ice sheets.. the glacier is melting so quickly that plant samples are having to be frozen artifically so that scientists 30 years from now can have something to study, lonnie thompson from the university said in the interview.

  the ice field is the smallest it has been since the last ice age.. peruvians rely on the water from the glaciers, which will be reduced by 50% in their lifetime.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  soontobe

  Observed global temperature is on the verge of falling out of the predicted range (with a 95% confidence interval).