My pre-season pick was Green Bay beating New England. I might as well stick with it, though I have doubts about the Pats due to their defense, which is not a playoff-caliber unit. Aaron Discount Double-Check Rodgers would have a field day should these two teams meet (Rodgers has a field day against just about anybody these days) and I think we'd see a score of something like 45-28, and that's a conservative estimate.
The AFC is more wide-open, in my view, than the NFC. Green Bay looks like a lock barring a Rodgers injury. The Saints could challenge, but the 49ers cannot hang with the Packers. In bad weather, the Niners could turn the game into a grind and possibly get close to upsetting the Packers, but I'm still not picking them.
The Ravens are in some ways a more logical pick in the AFC, and so are the Steelers, than going with the Pats. The Jets, in bad weather, can make a run - they are geared toward winning games in January. But if the Jets, who have played 6 straight playoff games on the road, have to take to the road again, it won't be easy.