I was reading the book 'Five Stages of Collapse' by
Dmitry Orlov, which discussed in part, people's attitudes toward the probability
of societal collapse. One group of people, those who dispassionately examine
facts, like scientists, engineers and accountants ultimately become diametrically
opposed to the group of people with vested emotional interests, like politicians,
businessmen and economists. And he made some interesting comments that parallel
our situation when we consider how people are polarized over the future of the
Organization.
As we are well aware, just believing something will
continue to grow or even continue to exist doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going
to happen without the cold hard numbers to back it up. Just wishful hoping in
Santa for example, isn’t a guarantee that that some fat guy will be sliding
down your chimney in a few weeks’ time.
Yet what is more interesting, is when we start thinking
about how and why societies have collapsed in the past. And we have quite a few
historical examples to learn from. The Mayan civilization, the Rapa Nui peoples
of Easter Island and the Indus Valley civilizations are just some of the many
to consider.
And while the end of each civilization has its own unique
story, there always 3 common factors seen; a lack of resources and the potential
for growth, an inability to work with neighbors and an insulated ruling party.
Sadly and perhaps relevant to us, is that dying
civilizations (and in fact any highly organized structure) rarely wither away
but rather have their population numbers crash violently just after reaching
its peak. A common analogy used to illustrate this is the growth of bacteria in
a petri dish. In the beginning the bacterial colony has plenty of room and food
to grow. And it does so, exponentially enlarging until it hits the petri dish
walls. With no food left, with where to go and without an ability to change its
nature … the whole colony dies overnight.
Can we see the parallel with the Organization? Even
by using the very rubbery figures issued in the annual report, it is clear that
it’s past its peak. The age demographics of the average Witness, the lack of
fiscal income, the increasingly hostile environment due to the child abuse and
blood transfusion issues is has created and the incredibly naive and insulated
Governing Body, all show that the Society … re-branded or not … is not going to
last.
And while, we cannot know when things will fall
apart, judging by the consolidation of WT funds and the circling of the wagons
by those in power at Warwick, even some of them have seen the writing on the
wall.
As a post-script, if anyone is interested in
societies and history, there is a very thought provoking TED talk by UCLA
professor Jared Diamond found here … https://www.ted.com/talks/jared_diamond_on_why_societies_collapse#t-786291
