I think the determining factor is how greedy the controlling interests are in the short term. Betting on men not being greedy is a risky bet.
I could see the Ocean1111 scenario playing out. I hope it does, selfishly for my sake. The motivation there of course is taking the money and running. If for instance they are already fudging numbers and know the ship is sinking, this would make sense.
OTOH, I can see them splitting the difference (hedging their bets) and seeing what they can get away with over the long haul. Of course they will be stockpiling money and making money grabs all along the way.
Either scenario will see this Germany situation playing out in all the developed countries. We will see (as discussed many times on this forum) KH's closed and sold. Congregations consolidated. Property flips. High end properties sold off and replacement halls built in the less expensive growing areas. Yada yada.
Maybe we can determine long range objectives by watching how many long term projects are started. Headquarters doesn't count. That is for them.
It will be long and drug out either way. It will be interesting to watch, though.
-TE