Hi demouse: Your post is very good, and you noted about ex-JWs:
"To be fair, there is also the counterpart, the naïve apostate, who says that the internet/paedophile issue/problem x is going to bring the Society crashing down in flames. I’ve been around long enough to know that the GB makes Houdini look like a one legged mouse in a cat’s home. The religion known as Jehovah’s Witnesses will be around for a long time, though it will eventually morph into a more normal mainstream religion (in 50 – 100 years). I think that the numbers will stabilise at around 7 million with no appreciable movement either way unless they do something really stupid (like refuse to abandon the 1914 doctrine, think how stupid THAT will sound in 2064"
I have not read or heard any ex-JW make such bold claims, although some have strongly expressed such desires. But, I do believe that the "Potential" exist, if the issue continues to accelerate and civil lawsuits are filed in many locations, to have serious consequences for the religion.
First, the publicity alone will have some initial impact, and could cause a serious slowing in growth, much more so than in recent years. Second, if any number of lawsuits are successful, then this could drain the Society of funds, 'IF' these suits are awarded large monetary amounts. Third, if the Watch Tower Society makes any attempts at reform to try and keep JW membership, this could spell trouble, and failure to make needed reforms may mean as much trouble. The Governing Body will have to walk a very fineline.
I agree with you that the Society is expert at pulling a rabbit out of the hat and survive this issue. As an ex-JW, I have no illusions about their capability. So, while I have cited a 'potential' for their demise, at the same time, I will not be surprised if they manage the crisis, and regain ground in a couple of years after the dust settles. The JW mentality of Blind Loyalty is such that the peodphile issue will have to become much larger before my suggested 'potential' has a chance of realization. - Amazing