saki2fifty said:
: I would assume that the destructiveness of a natural disaster, namely earthquakes, is ultimately measured in casualties.
Not necessarily. This is easily illustrated. Suppose you lived in a city of 10 million people where the risk of being killed by a random gunshot was one in ten thousand per year. That means that, on average, 1,000 people a year were killed by gunshot. Now suppose you contemplated moving to a small town of 5,000 where the risk of being killed by a random gunshot was one in ten, so that on average, 500 people a year were killed by gunshot. Which one would you rather your family lived in? Which one has the greater crime?
The answer is obvious, and when you think about it sufficiently, and apply it to natural disasters of all sorts, you'll see that the only proper measure of destructiveness is per capita risk.
Think of this stuff another way. Let's suppose, for sake of argument, that the population of some country could grow at a rate of 5% per year for a hundred years in the absence of earthquakes. Suppose that this country started with a population of 1,000 people. At the end of 100 years, the country would contain 1.05^100 x 1,000 = about 131,500 people. Now let's introduce earthquake deaths and suppose that earthquakes killed people at a rate exactly proportional to the population density, say, 1% per year were killed by earthquakes. Then the rate of growth would be reduced to 5% - 1% = 4%, and at the end of 100 years the population would be 1.04^100 x 1000 = about 50,000.
The key question is: Can you identify any point within the 100 years under consideration where the number of deaths due to earthquakes exceeded some critical level? If so, then present your argument.
But I have no doubt that you cannot present such an argument, so assuming that you cannot, then answer the following: Since you cannot identify a point in the 100 year timespan where earthquakes exceeded a critical level, how can you possibly think that, in the 2,000 years since Jesus' death, you can identify a critical level above which you can confidently claim that a claimed prediction by Jesus was really fulfilled? And if you can answer that, then what is that critical level, and when was it reached in the past 2,000 years? If you can answer these questions, what objective evidence can you put forth to prove your claims?
: Regardless what the measure of a disaster is based on, whether its Per Capita or not, if it kills more people... then wouldn't it be easily classified as being more destructive/worse?
No. See above.
: On a per capita basis the facts may say otherwise. If since 1914 the percentages/per capita has remained the same, but deaths have risen considerably, then I'd say the problem has worsened.
You're wrong. See above, and answer my questions.
: However, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php shows that the increase of Earthquakes may not be on the rise, but may appear to be for the fact that they are now able to locate them easier.
I'm impressed! You underrate your abilities to look into things. Extremely few JWs would think to look for information about earthquakes on that website.
:: Auldsoul: He said there would be an increase in the number of earthquakes.
:: Where does it say this?
: Matthew 24: 3 As Jesus was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately. "Tell us," they said, "when will this happen, and what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?" 4 Jesus answered: "Watch out that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in my name, claiming, 'I am the Christ,[a]' and will deceive many. 6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are the beginning of birth pains.
: Verse 6 "You will hear..." Verse 7 "There will be famines and earthquakes in various places". So maybe it simply means that you will hear of these things more frequently.
So you can't find a scripture that states clearly that earthquakes would ever be on the increase. Why? Because this would be meaningless. Suppose that I told you that I would meet you at Alvin's Steak House in Denver when you see that the grass is green. Would that mean anything to you? Would you have gotten any information at all from me about when you should show up in Denver? Obviouly not. How about if Denver experienced several years of wet weather. Would that help you? Obviously not.
The same goes for claiming that earthquakes are some kind of sign. The website from the United States Geological Survey that you astutely posted a link to, with the article "Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?", clearly shows that earthquakes are statistically no different today than before 1914. If anyone claims different, let him post data that show a breakpoint at 1914. If anyone doesn't know what a "breakpoint" is, let him or her PM me and I'll explain.
See if you can start thinking out of the box, saki2fifty. Read Matthew 24 and 25, along with Mark 13 and Luke 21, with fresh eyes. Compare what you read in the New World Translation with what you read in a variety of others. You'll see some things clearly. Jesus' disciples asked him for a sign that that "the end" was about to occur. But rather than immediately telling them about this sign, he warned them of things not to be disturbed about that would occur before "the end" would come. These things are precisely what Jewish apocalypic commentators, for several hundreds years, had been warning about the coming of whatever "end" they had in mind. Such things included famines, pestilences, earthquakes and great wars. So, in contrast to these false apocayptic 'prophets', Jesus' followers should never be worried about the things that Jewish apocalyptic commentators were very worried about, because they were nothing more than what uninspired wishful thinkers were publishing for several hundred years before Jesus came on the scene.
Today the Watchtower Society continues in that same old tradition of attempting to discern the time of Jesus' Coming. They claim that since 1914, a great many horrible things have occurred that are far worse than anything mankind has ever experienced. While many horrible things have occurred, they are not exactly unprecedented. War, famine, pestilence and earthquakes have been part of human existence since time immemorial. There is no evidence that these horrible things have been any worse since 1914 than before that date. Gainsayers are welcome to post their rebuttals, but since readers already know that potential rebutters have no data at their disposal, it would be a wasted exercise.
AlanF