slimboyfat,
You pointed out your hypothesis along those lines, but I felt Leolaia did an excellent job of answering one of your linchpin arguments in such a way as to remove the argument from consideration. Or at least she placed in a file marked "Jury Still Out".
You reasoned (without any substance in basis) that rather sudden localized defections were somehow more effective than decentralized and rather slower paced defections. Whereas, I believe it is easier for the conscious mind of a JW to excise an entire congregation at a single slice (since a congregation is an impersonal entity and likely not closely connected to the active JW) than for the conscious mind to rationalize the very many decentralized defections that are brewing, the large numbers of elders stepping down, the small numbers of brothers stepping up to fill ministerial servant and elder needs.
The other reality you ignored in your analysis is that a brash, noisy apostate is much more easily dismissed by JWs and non-JWs alike. But the Internet has allowed for many to vent to a sufficient degree that they do not become brash, noisy apostates. You seem to think that is a limiting factor, but I believe you have misunderstood the eventual impact. Through casual cnoversations, I have had occasion to arm at least five non-JWs with stronger reasoning points than I could have dreamt up one year ago, for use with their JW family members. I didn't do that here, this was in real life, in casual conversations with people I have met. Non-JW relatives of JWs have a much better chance of reaching active JWs with these reasoning points than any ex-JW has.
Really, the venting slowly era of apostasy (versus quick release of steam and expelled) has only just begun its life. The Internet has only had greater than 75% US market saturation for 4 years. Of that ISP saturation point, high-speed ISPs have only had greater than 20% market saturation for two years. Forming conclusions on the impacts of this brand new "slow-perk" version of apostasy based on the lack or presence of associated dramaticism is, in my opinion, somewhat myopic of you.
Also, technology is changing quickly. The capacity of the current Internet (when it comes to getting aggregated topical information with a high degree of relevance) will be dwarfed by its capacity in five years time. The clock is ticking on all cults that try to keep one foot in the waking world. It is just a matter of time.
The hot water is percolating right now. This organization has already gone fairly static and stagnant, and soon their organizational witch hazel brew will be ready for them to drink.
Respectfully,
AuldSoul