This is all my reasoning and just off the cuff...
I think that it is obvious that there is a God. Take ANY realm of study or spieces no matter how simple it is and you become intrigued at how complicated something can be. I think there is wonder and awe in creation and it speaks loudly of a Creator and His personality.
I believe that Jesus was a highly unique individual. His existence on this earth is well documented. He lives up to MANY prophecies that described WHO to look for when he came. His teaching was UNIQUE! He did things that point to who sent him; walked on water, healed the sick, the lame, the blind, raised the dead, etc! He DIED when he didn't have to for YOU! WHY?!! His resurrection was witnessed by over 500 people! His experience is the only such experience on this earth!
In my search for truth after getting out of jw, I totally feel that God had SO MUCH with me getting to realization and I feel that He reassured me with my decision. I prayed to Him to say if my path was correct. I prayed for my girlfriend at the time to skip the church service she was looking forward to if I was in the wrong. If I was on the right path I wanted her to offer a donation into the collection plate as it went by; something she hasn't done for 5 years and I had scoffed at doing. Short version - she went to church and donated a $10 on a SUDDEN COMPULSION!
I COULDN'T BELIEVE MY EYES!!!
In addition to all of that my belief in a God of Love has now filled my life with JOY and LOVE! I am so happy and excited each day and my Bible reading or spiritual reading brings me such happiness and joy. I do not think one can experience JOY if it is based upon a lie or a guess. I think for it to be as powerful as it is it must be rooted in God.
God didn't explain himself fully to us. The apostle Paul said at 1 Cor 13:12 - Now we see but a poor reflection as in a mirror; then we shall see face to face. Now I know in part; then I shall know fully, even as I am fully known. So complete knowledge is not ours at this point. That is where faith comes into play. But we HAVE been given enough evidence to know that our faith is NOT without basis or facts. ! Cor 2:16 says "For who has known the mind of the Lord that he may instruct him?" [ a ] But we have the mind of Christ.
So, Jesus' COMMAND was to LOVE! Repent and accept Jesus' sacrifice as your means of a clean conscience and your means of salvation. After that it gets pretty exciting when you really mean it!
So from facts and experience I feel that religion is so much more than guesses! Unfortunately, people can misuse that power and we have been warned to stay clear of anyone who would ROB you of your FREEDOM in Christ!
Those are my thoughts. I hope it helps.