US military buildup on the Iranian border...

by zeroday 28 Replies latest jw friends

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  purplesofa

  Do you have the link? I would like to send the link to someone.

  Thanks

  purps
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  sammielee24

  The Federal Reserve'sgreatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. 2000 (when the euro was worth around 82 cents), and has actually made off like a bandit considering the dollar's steady depreciation against the euro. (Note: the dollar declined 17% against the euro in 2002.)

  "The real reason the Bush administration wants a puppet government in Iraq -- or more importantly, the reason why the corporate-military-industrial network conglomerate wants a puppet government in Iraq -- is so that it will revert back to a dollar standard and stay that way." (While also hoping to veto any wider OPEC momentum towards the euro, especially from Iran -- the 2nd largest OPEC producer who is actively discussing a switch to euros for its oil exports)."

  Although a collective switch by OPEC would be extremely unlikely barring a major panic on the U.S. dollar, it would appear that a gradual transition is quite plausible. Furthermore, despite Saudi Arabia being our `client state,' the Saudi regime appears increasingly weak/threatened from massive civil unrest. Some analysts believe civil unrest might unfold in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other Gulf states in the aftermath of an unpopular U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq [3] . Undoubtedly, the Bush administration is acutely aware of these risks. Hence, the neo-conservative framework entails a large and permanent military presence in the Persian Gulf region in a post-Saddam era, just in case we need to surround and control Saudi's large Ghawar oil fields in the event of a Saudi coup by an anti-western group. But first back to Iraq.

  "Saddam sealed his fate when he decided to switch to the euro in late 2000 (and later converted his $10 billion reserve fund at the U.N. to euros) -- at that point, another manufactured Gulf War become inevitable under Bush II. Only the most extreme circumstances could possibly stop that now and I strongly doubt anything can -- short of Saddam getting replaced with a pliant regime.

  "Big Picture Perspective: Everything else aside from the reserve currency and the Saudi/Iran oil issues (i.e. domestic political issues and international criticism) is peripheral and of marginal consequence to this administration. Further, the dollar-euro threat is powerful enough that they will rather risk much of the economic backlash in the short-term to stave off the long-term dollar crash of an OPEC transaction standard change from dollars to euros. All of this fits into the broader Great Game that encompasses Russia, India, China."

  This information about Iraq's oil currency is not discussed by the U.S. media or the Bush administration as the truth could potentially curtail both investor and consumer confidence, reduce consumer borrowing/spending, create political pressure to form a new energy policy that slowly weans us off Middle-Eastern oil, and of course stop our march towards a war with Iraq. This quasi `state secret' is addressed in a Radio Free Europe article that discussed Saddam's switch for his oil sales from dollars to the euros, to be effective November 6, 2000:
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  Gerard

  Oil aside, this is a tough one. Invade and you get China and Russia as renewed enemies for a while.

  Thing is, Iranians will go gerrilla, which has proven extremely effective in Vietnam and recently in Somalia, Iraq, Lebanon and Afganistan. Expect a vote to re-establish draft and a few decades of face to face combats.

  On the other hand, do nothing and we get nuked; You know we will.
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  sammielee24

  I can't see the draft NOT being instituted. All indications are that at some point, the Middle East will explode into major conflict and if its not now its likely in the near future.

  What I wonder is how come, unlike many early wars, the US has expected little of it's own corporations and people, outside of the military. Why are we not producing in this country, the clothing and munitions that are needed for the war and in government contracts - not government contracts given to corporate friends. Why were the auto companies not asked to set up lines for armored vehicles - which not only provides jobs for people but keeps the technology and product inside the country? Why were textile factories not set up to make the clothing, tents and so on? Why were mandatory reserves not set up? On the one hand Bush keeps pushing a war in another country that has bankrupted this one; he's providing millions of dollars in funding to reconstruct 2 countries - Afghanistan and Iraq; he's lost billions of hard currency with no explanation; and yet here, wages are at a 30 year low, the gap between rich and poor is widening every moment, you have major education and health problems; no money to fix levees; and no security. Sometimes it's just too much to keep thinking about...

  sammieswife.
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  greendawn

  I don't think there will be an invasion but rather a war as in ex Yugoslavia using air attacks and in this case also attacks from the sea. At the most there will be some occupation of some key positions. Iran is too big, mountainous and populous a country for an Iraq or Afganistan style invasion.
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  P&C

  One conundrum with the ENTIRE premise of this theory... is that CHINA owns the largest chunk of the US's national debt.

  It is is their best interest for "us" to continue to prosper and be profitable...they're BANKING on it.

  Although ideologically they are our "enemy"... economically they're DEPENDANT on "us"...

  I'm not sure how this will all play out... but $$$ almost always trumps ideology and religion...IMO

  P&C
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  Jourles

  I'm still trying to figure out which excuse the US will use to attack Iran:

  • Iran allegedly fires missile at US aircraft in "Iraqi" airspace.
  • If the Russian's intel of the US attack date of April 6th is true, expect the Iranians to release the sailors within the next two days. This will be one less excuse to "free the hostages." Iran will say that the sailors "apologized" - which will be good enough for them, even though Britain didn't do it officially.
  • An "Iranian" ship will allegedly fire on a US ship.
  • The US finds and proves "beyond a doubt" that Iranian Revolutionary Guards were just fighting against US soldiers in Iraq.

  Iran isn't doing anything to the US right now that warrants a full scale war with them. Developing nuclear technology is their right under the NPT. It doesn't matter what many feel in their "gut" about them deveolping a nuke to deliver on US soil or how many UNSC resolutions get passed at the behest of the US. The IAEA has found no evidence of nuclear weapons facilities. Deal with it.

  Seeing that Iran is basically keeping to themselves right now(aside from the sailors in disputed waters), the only way the US could mount a "legal" attack on them would be to have one of the above scenarios happen. Of course, there are many other scenarios that could be played out, but the US public(and world) will need something far more convincing this time. The world will need to see "proof"(fabricated or not) of Iran attacking US forces. I can't believe the democrats stripped out of their latest bill a line that would have made it necessary for Bush to get approval from Congress before attacking Iran. This makes me wonder if we're just seeing a massive game of good cop/bad cop being played out in Washington.

  The only way for Iran to change back to the dollar in oil trading is to have a US friendly regime set up. We've got two years to watch this happen.
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  Kudra

  At least the draft would take the brunt of the war off of the poor kids who are stuck in going nowhere towns whose only option seems to be to join up. It makes the war a little more "fair" to the troops...
  
  Also, what nuclear capabilities does Iran actually have at this time and how long would it take them to build a nuke capable to bomb the US?
  
  Thanks,
  
  -K
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  sammielee24

  China has been slowly but surely building on its own, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if the US were the ones to suffer during a collapse. One of the major issues with the USA is that it has lost its ability to manufacture within its own country. Exports are much lower than imports and interest rates have been kept low so that Americans can continue to buy those cheap imports on credit. The Chinese in the meantime, have been building up exports to other countries so that if the USA pulls back, they may hurt but not as much as the USA. The Chinese are set to export their cars here in about 5 years and at half the cost of what the US manufacturers sell them for. That will almost kill the US companies that remain.

  If the brewing confrontation between Iran and the U.S. breaks out into open hostilities the result will be a spike in oil prices and interest rates in the U.S. The asset-speculation economy will take a major hit. How will China’s credit-corruption economy fare? China has oil and gas deals with Iran and it has been credibly asserted that the CCP played a role in the election of Iran’s current anti-U.S. leadership. The CCP also has oil deals with an increasingly dictatorial Russia and overtly anti-American Venezuela. When the dust settles after a possible a U.S./Iran crisis, China winds up with oil, enormous productive capacity and trade partners across Asia, South America and Europe. And what does the U.S. have