by Warlock 43 Replies latest jw friends
For those of you here who think you know so much, read: "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Then, you will see how much you really DON'T know.
For those of you here who think you don't know much, read: "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Then, you will see how much you really DO know.
I love all of you, either way, but that was my parting shot.
I've been here for almost a year and I must move on.
Warlock
Check in once in a while and take care.
Warlock...say it ain't so....
You're not really leaving us are you?
If you must, go in peace and remember, you will always be welcomed back.
I for one, will miss you.
Stealth
Warlock, I put the book on my to do list, I will check it out. Stop in and say hi from time to time. Good luck happiness and success in your lifes journeys.
Jag
think about it and stay mate.....you will be missed otherwise....ninja
Warlock. I told you not listen to those demons!!! Dam it, we are too late. Warlock, l luv ya man...keep in touch okay? Don't shun me dawg!
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515
Product DescriptionA black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
Warlock,
I'll definitely read the black swan- thanks for the recommendation!
As far as posting, keep in touch, at least on occasion!
BA- I post less when the weather's nice, more in winter, myself.
The end of an era. Take care Warlock
Hey, it's been fun!!! Stop back in occasionally! We'll miss you!!!
Swalker
